Rainkhan and the 33 versus Alex Kravchenko

[GotQuads]

[ QUOTE ]
Rahme was going to call if Kahn didn't, so wouldn't Giga's block theory work here for Kahn because if he folds the chips most likely go to his immediate left? (I know the size of the blocks have some effect here but don't understand it well enough to know exactly how)

[/ QUOTE ]

If you use block theory it's a rather bad shove since you double up the guy 2 seats to your left (I recall Alex was UTG and Rain in the SB, correct me if I'm wrong)

I think the 33 shove was marginal at best, really praying for Alex to have a 2 or 3 in his hand

[suzzer99]

Exact stack sizes are absolutely crucial to analyze this hand. Khan's shove goes from bad to good within a short range of overlay.

[GotQuads]

Agreed, it's just my recollection Khan wasn't desperate, but I may be wrong.

[s33w33d]

[ QUOTE ]
Exact stack sizes are absolutely crucial to analyze this hand. Khan's shove goes from bad to good within a short range of overlay.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kravchenko T2.66M
Khan T9.385M (-T150K SB)
Rahme T16.255M (-T300K BB)
(Other stack sizes are Yang T62.37M, Lam T20.605M, Kalmar T15.98M)

Blinds are T150K/T300K + T40K, with a resultant pot of T690K.

Kravchenko allin for T2.66M (total pot now T3.35M)

Yang, Lam, Kalmar fold, Khan goes allin, Rahme folds (AQ, as it turns out)

Kravchenko: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Khan: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Board: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

When Khan moves in, there are the following possibilities:

Rahme folds, at which point Khan is putting in T2.51M to win a total resultant pot of T5.86M

Rahme calls, at which point Khan is putting all his T9.385M to win a resultant pot of T22.12M, with Kravchenko eligible for T8.67M in the side pot.

[lwrunner103]

so standard

[disjunction]

I'm interested.

When I first heard the hand I thought the stacks were double what they were, and that Kravchenko doubled up *from* 5.8 million as opposed to *to* 5.8 million. As it is, you start to have a largish overlay. I'm still not sold on it, as it is borderline and my understanding was that

(1) Yang was VERY active, so
(2) Anyone could go busto at anytime despite stack sizes.
(3) Khan was one of the better players at the table

I'm sure this isn't accounted for in ICM or when 40-tabling.

Chip stacks 2 minutes after according to pokernews:

Updated Chip Counts

Seat 1 - Raymond Rahme - 15.955 million
Seat 2 - Alex Kravchenko - 5.86 million
Seat 4 - Jerry Yang - 62.37 million
Seat 6 - Tuan Lam - 20.605 million
Seat 8 - Jon Kalmar - 15.98 million
Seat 9 - Hevad 'Rain' Khan - 6.715 million

[DrewDevil]

If Rahme really had AQ, how did he stop the blood from spurting out of his eyes?

[GotQuads]

The play is +chipEV, but I dislike it, because Alex is going to be blinded down. He shoved UTG so he's going to lose the chips he might have gained if Rahme had folded, very soon.

There's no reason not to wait for Alex' double up or elimination before taking a coinflip.

[pineapple888]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Exact stack sizes are absolutely crucial to analyze this hand. Khan's shove goes from bad to good within a short range of overlay.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kravchenko T2.66M
Khan T9.385M (-T150K SB)
Rahme T16.255M (-T300K BB)
(Other stack sizes are Yang T62.37M, Lam T20.605M, Kalmar T15.98M)

Blinds are T150K/T300K + T40K, with a resultant pot of T690K.

Kravchenko allin for T2.66M (total pot now T3.35M)

Yang, Lam, Kalmar fold, Khan goes allin, Rahme folds (AQ, as it turns out)

Kravchenko: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Khan: 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Board: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

When Khan moves in, there are the following possibilities:

Rahme folds, at which point Khan is putting in T2.51M to win a total resultant pot of T5.86M

Rahme calls, at which point Khan is putting all his T9.385M to win a resultant pot of T22.12M, with Kravchenko eligible for T8.67M in the side pot.

[/ QUOTE ]


In Khan's spot, I would have folded.
- Alex K. was UTG, and with an M of 4 he's gonna have some standards (he's been extremely patient so far).
- ICM effects are significant with so few players left
- Hero's skill edge is quite high on this table and slow structure/relatively deep stacks means time to find better spots
- Player to act behind Hero: a.) may wake up with a premium hand and bust out Hero b.) will be fairly highly incented to call Alex K. with a near-premium hand and now two Villains go at it which gives you a very nice bump to $EV just by folding
- Inflection points (nothing to do with Gigabet's theory which is mostly nonsense): if Hero loses, back down to M=10 and into the Orange Zone, loses flexibility

For STT types, all of this means I would want a quite high minimum edge, even after ICM corrections, and I don't think 33 is there.

[gumpzilla]

I really didn't like the 33 push there, but I haven't really been playing tournaments for a while, so perhaps I'm just rusty. As pineapple says, I expected the early open from Kravchenko to be tight enough that I didn't think that 33's equity was going to be that great.