600NL stupid hand versus regular

[Rampage_Jackson]

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what happened to your other 2+2 account?

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Got banned, stupid reason.

[Albert Moulton]

I wish there was a way to avoid giving 19:1 implied odds OOP to an open limper in the CO when I'm holding a big pair.

Don't raise? Raise much less? Raise more?

And/or play differnently on the flop and/or turn to allow yourself to get away when you're behind?

I think I'd rather raise more preflop to significantly lower the 8.8 SPR that you had in the OP. Raise to $50 or $60 to make it more expensive for CO to outflop you, and much harder for him to fold TP hands when you bet/raise post-flop. He'll think, "Well, he might have a big pair, or maybe AK? This is at the edge of the 5/10 range, but I have position and I'll probably stack him if I flop a set..."

As played preflop, given your bad position, the drawish nature of the flop, your strong hand, and your lack of concern for exercising pot-control because you expect villain to stack off in poition with draws and TP here often enough to make a fast play with aces +EV, the OP looks fine.

[Rampage_Jackson]

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I think I like a flop 3-bet better.

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Maybe i should have but I was thinking at the time let him bluff at it. Although he isn't that bluffy a player probably.

[CalledDownLight]

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Raise to $50 or $60 to make it more expensive for CO to outflop you

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wtf? are you serious. Raising to 10x the BB is terrible and thats an understatement.

[boltonflats]

as played it looks fine. ive played against him tons as well, mainly straightforward but does a lot a strange moves, still cant figure out if sneaky or just bad play. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] here you're probably behind knowing yao, but tough to do anything about it.

btw, who ever suggested raising to $50 preflop is a little off. you dont mind getting heads up w AA, if they out flop you it happens. generally you -want- a preflop caller, not make everyone fold.

[Albert Moulton]

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Raise to $50 or $60 to make it more expensive for CO to outflop you

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wtf? are you serious. Raising to 10x the BB is terrible and thats an understatement.

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Why? Tell me why raising double the 5xbb raise in the OP is bad. Because he won't get action? I would expect many players who open limp in the CO to call a raise from BB to $60 optimistically hoping to flop a set. Every session I play I see guys call 10xbb preflop raises (and sometimes more) optimistically hoping to flop a set.

So, yes, I would think raising to $50 or $60 is better than raising to $30 if your plan is to play your big pair oop on most flops for stacks. And that appears to have been OP's plan from the start.

And I would think stacking off for 19x your preflop raise is terrible, too, but that's the line he took in the OP.

If you don't raise more, and then if you play the hand in a way that pretty much guarantee's that you're getting your stack in by the river on most flops, then you give away too much in the way of reverse implied odds to your opponents.

As for telegraphing your hand with a big raise, I think raising an overly large amount from the BB in limped pots is something to do with very good hands as well as occasionally with not-so good hands as a kind of semi-bluff to steal the limpers' money. If you mix this up on occaision with just a few non-premium hands, then it will be tough for open limpers to play well against your raise. They will either fold too much preflop, or risk too much to see a flop.

So, a little more analysis of why a big raise is bad might be nice, other than "obviously." It is obvioulsy not standard thinking, but it may be better than winning too little OOP when you're ahead, and losing too much OOP when you get outflopped without making him pay a premium preflop to do so.

[Albert Moulton]

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as played it looks fine. ive played against him tons as well, mainly straightforward but does a lot a strange moves, still cant figure out if sneaky or just bad play. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] here you're probably behind knowing yao, but tough to do anything about it.

btw, who ever suggested raising to $50 preflop is a little off. you dont mind getting heads up w AA, if they out flop you it happens. generally you -want- a preflop caller, not make everyone fold.

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I don't think a pocket pair would fold every time to a $50 or $60 raise. He'd probably call hoping to flop a set less than calling a $30 raise, but still often enough to make the play profitable. The difference between raising more and raising less is that the smaller raise makes it correct for the CO to call, but the larger raise makes it incorrect, but enticing for him to call. It forces him to make a borderline decision that he will often make incorrectly (either folding a better hand when BB has AK or some semi-buff hand, or calling with a worse one when BB has KK/AA).

And as for "you dont mind getting heads up w AA, if they out flop you it happens." That happens if you let it happen. Yes, you do want callers, but you don't want callers who you help play their hands in a way that minimizes their chances of making a mistake according to the fundamental theorem of poker. And planning to raise a medium amount preflop relative to effective stacks, and then planning to play the overpair for stacks OOP on the flop and turn seems to help the guy in CO play perfectly.

It is possible to play AA OOP for a small or medium pot. It is possible to play AA OOP for stacks. The trick is to play in a way that maximizes your wins while minimizing your loses. If CO has a small pair, and you only raise 5xbb preflop, then you win with a cb everytime neither of you flop a set. If he flops a set on the cheap, then you pay him off way too much relative to his preflop risk. And the only way you win a big pot is if you flop set over set. So, raising more should make more when you cb and take down a bigger pot when neither of you flop a set, and you make him pay more (cutting down his implied odds) for the priviledge of stacking you when he flops a set.

The only way it doesn't work out is if he folds his pocket pair (or whatever he has) every time. But I don't think he will. He'll fold more, but not enough to make the larger raise less profitable than the smaller raise.

[Mike Kelley]

This might be a border line call for the live droolers you play with

But even the good players at 50NL LOL at a player making a raise of this size preflop for no apparent reason.

[Albert Moulton]

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This might be a border line call for the live droolers you play with

But even the good players at 50NL LOL at a player making a raise of this size preflop for no apparent reason.

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Well, I'll try to use some math to make my point. It is possible that $60 is too much, but I still think that the math support raising more than $30 preflop.

Please redo the assumptions and calculations to refute the "raise more" theory to see where I'm off on the EV calculation.

CO open limped. His most likely holding is a small pocket pair. He might have some connector, weak suited ace, or a dominated hand like AJ or AQ, but let's assume that he'd open raise the dominated aces and take them out of the range. Let's also assume he'd fold the weak suited aces to any size raise from the BB. As for the suited connectors, the math is easier if we assume he has a small pair, and I don't think the equations change too much if you include suited connectors.

So, if he has a small pair, lets make the math easier and assume effective stacks at the start of the hand of exactly 600 (meaning that BB has 594 after putting in the BB of $6). That's pretty close to the OP effective stacks. At least close enough.

When the action gets to the BB preflop, there is 3+6+6=$15 in the pot already.

So, there is a .88 chance that you flop an overpair, he misses a set, and you win the pot with a continuation bet.

There is a .11 chance that you flop an overpair, he flops a set, and you get stacked (assuming you play as in the case of OP's line on the flop and turn).

There is a .01 chance that you flop set over set and you win his stack.

If you raise to $30, let's assume that villain calls 100% of the time.

If you raise to $60, let's assume that villain calls only 10% of the time.

EV($30 raise) = $0.20.

EV($60 raise) = $18.92.

The droolers I play with call much more, but on-line I bet you get callse at least 10% of the time.

Here's the calculations.

EV($30 raise) = 1.00*[($65*0.88)+(0.11*-570)+(0.01*570)] = $0.20

( 0.1*[($123*0.88)+(0.11-540)+(0.01*540)] ) + ( 0.9*(3+6+6) ) = $18.92

Even if the CO folds 100% of the time preflop, then the overlay of the $15 in the pot makes the larger raise more +EV than the smaller raise.

And if the CO calls the larger raise preflop as much as 50% of the time (as in many live games), then the EV($60 raise)= $34.62.

So, where is the calculation off by enough to make the smaller raise have a higher EV than the larger raise?

Edit: I hope I got all the math right, and any problems you have are with the assumptions. If I missed on the math, then I bet the EV of the larger raise is still greater than the smaller one give my assumptions. The objections you most likely have would be with those assumptions, i.e. "I won't always stack off with my overpair." The problem is, that as played in the OP, you usually will stack off with your overpair.

Edit 2: The EV on the pot size for losing to a set and set overset, above, forgot to include the pot and only included the remaining stacks. The result is unchanged (EV large raise > EV small raise), but the actual calculation, above, is a little off.

[Rampage_Jackson]

You have no [censored] idea what you are talking about. Go back to playing .1/.2 NL.