TPTK Deep OOP, Gross River Spot

[shpanko]

He'd fold it pf? Or he just wouldn't bet it this hard?

[jk3a]

Here's the thing about his likelihood to be slowplaying. If he's as good as I think, he should know that I'm not felting one pair here, therefore making slowplaying much, much more profitable than raising the flop with his sets/two pair. I obv. don't have a great read, but it certainly would be good in his spot.

[shpanko]

I agree that this is the perfect board for him to slowplay/just call flop with when he has 2pair+

[Dire]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's the thing about his likelihood to be slowplaying. If he's as good as I think, he should know that I'm not felting one pair here, therefore making slowplaying much, much more profitable than raising the flop with his sets/two pair. I obv. don't have a great read, but it certainly would be good in his spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think most SLAGs are often fastplaying this flop. This flop hits your UTG range very well, and at the same time it's hard to put the SLAG on a huge hand since he's really only repping 22 or KT really, and even KT is questionable.

I'd only slowplay this against a guy who's a real postflop nit. I mean if you're insta-mucking AK to a raise here then he obviously has more incentive to slowplay, but most people aren't.

[Dire]

Also this isn't really a board that most people will just happily double barrel with air.

[pineapple888]

Look at his postflop stats. (Does nobody use postflop stats?)

Does he like to float? What's his turn agg factor? W$SD (yeah I know it takes a long time to converge but it gives you some idea)?

[RUDIKULOUS]

I think this is a lot closer than some people make it out to be but I think i probably call here. Most people would expect you to bet KJ+ here on the turn which underreps your hand and probably makes his bluffing frequency a bit higher in this situation.

[shootaa]

without many reads, id be bet/folding the turn and bet/folding a lot of rivers. it's unlikely he'd cold call preflop w/ KTo, TT, AA, or KK. the turn 7 doesn't change anything. Unless he got lucky doing something very dumb, you're chopping this pot, beating KQs/ maybe KJs and bluffs or losing to 22. snap call as played, but keep betting next time.

[Jay Riall]

Easy call for me tbh. Especially since you have the very best hand in your range here.

[nuggetz87]

[ QUOTE ]
without many reads, id be bet/folding the turn and bet/folding a lot of rivers. it's unlikely he'd cold call preflop w/ KTo, TT, AA, or KK. the turn 7 doesn't change anything. Unless he got lucky doing something very dumb, you're chopping this pot, beating KQs/ maybe KJs and bluffs or losing to 22. snap call as played, but keep betting next time.

[/ QUOTE ]

well said