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#11
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I guess I'm against the grain here. This looks like a good spot to checkraise the OOC guy. Doesn't seem like LG is going to bet this turn, and by checking you get to see how TP responds to the turn bet by OOC. If he raises, there's some chance he's freerolling you with QTdd. Either way, the turn never gets checked through here and I want to lay a hammer down here with the temporary nuts.
As for the flop, it's tough because you're getting better odds the second time around to call 2 more cold than you were the first time, but your hand looks worse. It seems clearer that you have no more than 6 outs, and added to the fact that some of the Ks and 8s may be dead (more likely Ks), there's the chance that you're drawing to a chop plus having to fade redraws. I guess it's a math problem and I don't feel like doing the math. |
#12
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i agree with private joker and go for the check raise on the out of control guy. if that is your read, he wont be able to help himself, and theres a good chance someone shows up with K J here too. the idea of it getting checked around does sicken me though.
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#13
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My first reaction was to check to OOC, but I think I prefer a bet. For all we know, all hell might break loose, which would be good (duh!).
A better question is what do you do if a diamond comes on the river and/or the board pairs? |
#14
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I think it's very unlikely that OOC doesn't bet this turn, and that TP doesn't call, so at first glance it appears that since c/ring gets us a minimum of, say, 3.8BB, probably more (since LG is likely coming along for the ride) and betting gets us a minimum of 3(nobody's folding obv) that check-raising is the superior play. The real question here is how often we get raised when we bet. TP is almost certainly on a diamond draw and is not folding for any number of bets on an unpaired board at this point. With that in mind, a bet - call - raise - call - threebet... turn is looking pretty sweet. I'm not sure what % of the time our donk has to be raised in order to make betting superior to check-raising, but I think it's very difficult to estimate how often we'll be raised when we suddenly wake up out of nowhere. I am not a good equity cruncher but my rough estimates have check-raising OOC as the best option. The most important skill here, by far, is rivering a black deuce.
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#15
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[ QUOTE ]
My first reaction was to check to OOC, but I think I prefer a bet. For all we know, all hell might break loose, which would be good (duh!). A better question is what do you do if a diamond comes on the river and/or the board pairs? [/ QUOTE ] I checked and it checked through. River paired the 7. Now what? |
#16
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] My first reaction was to check to OOC, but I think I prefer a bet. For all we know, all hell might break loose, which would be good (duh!). A better question is what do you do if a diamond comes on the river and/or the board pairs? [/ QUOTE ] I checked and it checked through. River paired the 7. Now what? [/ QUOTE ] Bet. |
#17
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] My first reaction was to check to OOC, but I think I prefer a bet. For all we know, all hell might break loose, which would be good (duh!). A better question is what do you do if a diamond comes on the river and/or the board pairs? [/ QUOTE ] I checked and it checked through. River paired the 7. Now what? [/ QUOTE ] You have got to be [censored] kidding, but yeah, bet, call for one bet back to you when the raiser isn't TP. |
#18
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Of course you bet. If you check I certainly hope it would be with the intention of trying for the c/r again.
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#19
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I think if anyone threebets on this river you are pretty much hating life. Bet-call is way better than check-raise-what now.
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#20
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mm, bet-call probably isn't too great. Once this turn gets checked around we're almost never against sets/twopairs.
Bet though, you can't let it get checked around again. |
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