Sit n Go Strategy Question

[MikeBandy]

[ QUOTE ]
If 1:1 = happens every time then 2:1 = happens every other time.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're confusing the chance (or probability) of something happening with the odds of it happening. If the chance of it happening is one hundred percent, then it will occur on a ratio of 1:1 (the ratio of favorable to total events).

However, the odds of something happening is the ratio of favorable to unfavorable (or unfavorable to favorable) events. Therefore, if there's a fifty percent chance of an event occuring, the odds are 1:1 that it'll happen.

If the odds are 2:1 against, it doesn't occur twice for every time it does occur.

Hope this helps. If it sounds like gibberish, please let me know.

[Paulyman]

Can someone clarify this for me? I'm reading Sit'n Go Strategy. I'm trying to get my brain around all of this and I think there is a typo which isn't helping. If it is, it threw the one "basic" example that we are given into complete disarray continuing the error throughout. ICM Crucial Mid-Blind Concepts pg. 119

Pr(A 2nd)=(0.37)(0.71) +(0.15)(0.43)=.41

Shouldn't "(0.37)" be "(0.48)", as cited on pg 118?
Pr(B 1st) = 0.48

If I am correct, this seems to be a major error as the following charts are incorrect; thus, there is nothing to check my own math against. Could someone post the correct charts please. Pr (1st)(2nd)(3rd) for A, B, & C, and the equity?
Thank you.


This error is continued for the next 1 1/2 pages' equations.

[nems]

You're right it should be 0.48 instead of 0.37, but it is just a typo and the answer given is still correct.

Pr(A 2nd)=(0.37)(0.71) +(0.15)(0.43)= 0.33

Pr(A 2nd)=(0.48)(0.71) +(0.15)(0.43)= 0.41

[Paulyman]

Thanks. I guess I could have saved myself the time if I did the math first. :-)