25NL : Set facing huge raise on river

[Ricky_Bobby]

Guys who play 10/4 aren't getting away from AK/AA very often here even if you c/r flop. He might have that sneaky feeling that you have a set but he'll call the check raise, then reluctantly call the turn bet, then make a crying call on the river.

I think a check raise would be the best way to get money in the pot here.

The board is dry but it's the type that he'll usually go broke on with AA/AK and have an easy fold with QQ.

Check calling doesn't make a lot of sense to me because there aren't really any cards that can help him on the turn (unless he 2 outs us), but there are at least a few that can scare him, 3,8,Q, for example.

If we c/c then lead on the turn in this hand for example, he'll have a tough time raising after the straight hit.

When I'm unsure between two plays I lean towards the one that gets more money in the pot now and ensures that a scare card can't fall.

[Profish2285]

Im not saying hes folding AK/AA, the problem is, thats pretty much the only hands that stay after a flop c/r. Im not even sure he holds onto KQ/KJ with those stats. I think a turn lead for 1/2 pot looks weak and is more likely to get action from the lower part of his range than a flop c/r.

[Ricky_Bobby]

I know what you're saying.

My thinking is that this guy has a 4% PFR so there really aren't any marginal hands in his range. I realize it's a small sample but it has to be fairly close.

The thing is I want to play for stacks with this hand, and I'm not gonna worry about getting action from his weaker hands, cuz we're never stacking KQ, no matter what we do, but we might give hands that we could have stacked a chance to get off cheap.

AA/AK may be the only hands that call the c/r, but they're also the only hands we're stacking, so I'm gonna take a line to stack those hands and not worry about KQ,etc. The times you stack AA for 140bb should more than compensate for the times we get a 40bb out of KQ.

[HP_Drifter]

Yea, I pretty much agree with everything you said Ricky. I know what you're thinking Profish, because its pretty much what I was thinking exactly during the hand, but if we think it through, I think the c/r is better. His stats only really indicate that he has a super tight opening range, it doesn't tell us anything about his postflop tendencies. As I indicated, he isn't a strong post flop player, and despite his nittiness I've seen him call off with one-pair hands, which I should have taken into account before I decided to c/c. I believe c/r is correct, because with his range, hes gonna have something to call with almost all the time. KA, KQ, pocket pairs. The only thing I really see him raising and whiffing that flop with is AQ, AJ, possibly A10. He isn't playing hands like Q10 or 89 or anything that could pair up or pick up a draw on the turn that he'll call a turn bet with but fold to a flop c/r. As Ricky said, by c/r, we get value out of the vast majority of his range, and quite possibly stack him, while we're virtually only losing AQ/AJ