Analysis of A Seven Card Stud Downswing!

[ACPlayer]

Dont know what to make of the numbers, but I do have some comments for you to consider:

1. The full tilt 1-2 game is a high ante game and adjustments from a more typical structare needed. Note that in 1000 hands you put up 200 dollars in antes, instead of a $100 in the more normal 10percent of SB structure.
2. Very loose games require a different strategy from tighter or more normal games. I am sure you know that but cant hurt to repeat: fewer semibluffs and more value bets.
3. I hope your definition of tilt is a lot tighter than "made no angry raises"

I find very loose stud games very hard to play (couple that with a high ante where the loose players are making much smaller mistakes makes it tough).

Better luck next time.

[southerndog]

"The stats show that I did not win my fair share of hands. I am shy 2.5 percentage points in wins which is 20% of what I can legitimately expect at an eight player table (12.5% mathematically expected win rate). "

Al, can u explain that a little more...

[Beavis68]

agreed, looser calling stations will consistantly win a great % of pots.

[Al Mirpuri]

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"The stats show that I did not win my fair share of hands. I am shy 2.5 percentage points in wins which is 20% of what I can legitimately expect at an eight player table (12.5% mathematically expected win rate). "

Al, can u explain that a little more...

[/ QUOTE ]

Hiya southerndog,

Simply put, at an eight player table you should be winning one hand in eight, that is, you should win 12.5% of your hands (100/8=12.5); at a ten player table you should be winning one hand in ten, that is, you should win 10% of your hands (100/10=10); in a heads up game you should be winning one hand in two, that is you should win 50% of your hands (100/2=50). All this somewhat rudimentary maths is based on the assumption that the cards allow you to do this. The point I am making is that I was playing in a eight player game but winning as if I was playing in a ten player game. If I had been winning as if it was heads up I would be reporting a huge upswing to you all (but I am not vain so would not [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]). Conclusion: I was card dead.

I hope this has clarified the point but more than willing to post again about it if need be, just ask...

[Al Mirpuri]

[ QUOTE ]
Dont know what to make of the numbers, but I do have some comments for you to consider:

1. The full tilt 1-2 game is a high ante game and adjustments from a more typical structare needed. Note that in 1000 hands you put up 200 dollars in antes, instead of a $100 in the more normal 10percent of SB structure.
2. Very loose games require a different strategy from tighter or more normal games. I am sure you know that but cant hurt to repeat: fewer semibluffs and more value bets.
3. I hope your definition of tilt is a lot tighter than "made no angry raises"

I find very loose stud games very hard to play (couple that with a high ante where the loose players are making much smaller mistakes makes it tough).

Better luck next time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Point 1 is very interesting and I had not considered that, so I must thank you. Points 2 & 3 I have covered and are not issues. Your concluding remark is also very good, playing after my downswing session, I concluded that I needed to manipulate pot size more so when they chased the odds were not as good.

Thanks for the goodwill ACPlayer.

I am one a very confident individual and not afraid to be introspective. I do not know if anyone remembers but I started a series of threads sometime ago called 'My Stud Mistakes' when I outlined where I felt I was going wrong. It was easy to do but my game has come a long way since.

[southerndog]

Al, I never did much bluffing when I played on party where they showed %age of hands won, I was always below 10%.. I think the figure that lstream, frappeboy, and ironchef had was somewhere around 8%...

You win 1/N of your hands when all players see each hand through to the end. But, since you are folding a lot of hands... Probably playing around 22%ish of your hands, your win %age is going to go down quite a bit.

I'd definitely like to hear some stats from others, though..

About your downswing...... I've been thinking a lot about a stop loss point.. Say, if you get down 50 BB's, it may be time to pack up shop.. Once you get down this much one or a combination of a few things are probably happening... 1. You are starting to play poorly... (Also becoming a target...) 2.) Your opponents are probably better than you're giving them credit for. 3.) You're running god damned awful, go do something else!!

This may draw some criticism, which i'm interested in hearing.

[ill rich]

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[ QUOTE ]
seems like a pretty bad losing streak.

you should probably rethink your playing style over 1000 hands with no profit, and that kind of terrible negative bets per 100 hands seems like a freak for "the best player"

how well would you rate your skill?

factoring this in, what is your per 100 hand rate?

anyways good luck in the future

[/ QUOTE ]

I have read all the books (including the whitemeat relating to seven stud in the Poker Essays series) and I have been around long enough to know pretty much all the tricks.

I am not Chip Reese but I am not Chico Marx either.

I have beaten this game consistently I do not track hands religiously (maybe I should) but I have consistently beaten this game.

I think the fact that there were a number of skilled players and being sucked out on and throwing in a few bad bets accounted for it. I am self-aware enough to know that running bad and playing bad go hand in hand but if I had not played as well as I played and I played well it would have been much worse.


Yesterday, I played 460 hands and won 6 big bets at $2/$4 but played over 1000 hands at the $1/$2 level breaking even.

I can play.


I am satisfied that it was a freak occurrence.

[/ QUOTE ]

well then maybe its your strategy at 1-2, or the players at 2-4 play the way that your style works best against

[Al Mirpuri]

Mike Caro produced a comprehensive and accurate list of reasons to stop playing a game but stop loss is not one of them.

To repeat: I do not tilt. I do not take things personally, even when verbally abused through chat I will rant through chat but never tilt. I think this one of my big edges over the average player. I have separated the result from the play, I never berate the fish though I do not go in for all that 'nh' business to reinforce their play (I think it snide). I played very well. Though I have since thought I should have manipulated pot size better.

As for giving credit where it is due, I have acknowledged that there was a point when the game was plenty tough not enough fish. It was a fish though who took about a third alone of what I lost.

I have just hand a 300~hand session lost less than 1 big bet and I have realised even the percentage of wins is not all that important it is where you won them because I won 18% but only won 33% of the showdowns which clearly shows that winning on the end is most important of all as a 18% hand win rate should produce a profit but it did not as it was not coupled with a 55%-60% winning showdown rate.

Interesting you should mention bluffs, I rarely bluff at $1/$2 but I did throw in one or two and picked off one or two and had one or two picked off but nothing that would be certifiably insane. Small stakes bluffing leads to the poorhouse.

[SweetLuckyMe]

Running bad happens. Your numbers are entirely possible with even very good play. Stud is a bit of a roller coaster ride when played correctly (aggressively). You keep firing with positive pot equity and folding when you don't have odds to play, and long-term you'll do fine.

I've taken some unbelievable beatings in stud over a thousand hands, but long term the money's there.

[southerndog]

Hey Al,

So cause Mike Caro doesn't mention a stop loss point, you can't do it?

For myself, poker is a tough game.. I always considered my biggest strength be game selection.. However, I'm starting to second guess that. Sometimes you can be in a game that's very loose aggressive, and seems like people are trying to give their money away, but the reality is that these games aren't that easy. Setting something like a stop loss might help you to step away from a game, and think about it with a clear head?

As for the tilt:

Now, you describe that u lost about 150 BB's in a session.. Let's assume your earn rate is 2 BB's per hour.. (A pretty good rate) This means you're gonna have to play about 75 hours to get this back.. Or, in other words, you've just thrown 75 hours down the drain... And this doesn't bother you? This doesn't affect your decision making?