Should I fold his "all-in" ?

[the machine]

[ QUOTE ]
OK so why are we calling this? We think it is often trips. I can't see trips very often here because BB never made a move to build the pot on the flop or turn nor did he try to discourage draws on the 2 club turn. Not often trips IMO.

A worse flush? Perhaps but it should be clear to the villian that Hero was playing a draw. When the 3rd club hits the board and Hero makes a pot size bet after playing a draw to the river, if I'm villian I curse and call with a lower flush. I think this play is most often the nut flush (i.e. Axc) Occassionally villian might hold 55

Agreed there is some possibility of it being air but I think very low probability since villian has to be betting 2+ times the pot size that hero (who was obviously on a draw) missed his draw and was bluffing the pot, on the river, with air. Not very good thinking by villain IMO since the third club hit.

Of course there are other possibilities but the preponderance of factors leads me to believe villain holds Axc or 55 more often than not so I can't call his all in bet. I think we are beat here 75% of the time or more.

[/ QUOTE ]


this is .02NL. people think flopped trips is the nuts and will check it all day long and open shove a river because its trips yo i had to go all in into a nothing pot. there is no way im ever folding here

[Bona]

We agree to disagree. Since I am apparently the only poster in the thread who thinks we are beat here, I may be wrong. I hope OP will post results after he gets the feedback he wants.

[the machine]

[ QUOTE ]
We agree to disagree. Since I am apparently the only poster in the thread who thinks we are beat here, I may be wrong. I hope OP will post results after he gets the feedback he wants.

[/ QUOTE ]

im not saying hes not beat here. im saying against a typical villains range he is so far ahead. given the range it makes this an easy call

[CaptVimes]

[ QUOTE ]
OK so why are we calling this? We think it is often trips. I can't see trips very often here because BB never made a move to build the pot on the flop or turn nor did he try to discourage draws on the 2 club turn. Not often trips IMO.

A worse flush? Perhaps but it should be clear to the villian that Hero was playing a draw. When the 3rd club hits the board and Hero makes a pot size bet after playing a draw to the river, if I'm villian I curse and call with a lower flush. I think this play is most often the nut flush (i.e. Axc) Occassionally villian might hold 55


[/ QUOTE ]

Do you really believe the villian would think hero's on draw? I'm sorry, but not a lot of people at this level bet their flush draws, plus Hero over bet the pot into 2 people. Few players are even thinking about why someone is betting into them all. I think his betting the flush draw disguises his hand more than making it plain to villian. Both people calling screams someone is slowplaying their Jx. Why would they try to build a big pot, hero is doing it for them and they "don't want to drive away any customers" by raising the turn. Isn't the river the exact situation hero wants, a made flush? It would take a pretty good read here to fold this.