Nl600: AQs

[Chain Chomp]

[ QUOTE ]
Thought this was a difficult spot, so I decided to run the numbers on this one and got some interesting results.

Pot Size after villain bets: 333 + 78 = 411
Left to Shove: 433.8 - 105 = 328.8 (effective stacks of 433.8)
Final Pot Size if Villain Calls: 333 + 328.8*2 = 990.6

Equity when called*:
*The range will vary a lot on the donk, but in general we will always have around 35% equity with the overcards, bdfd, and gutshot.

Board: 2c 5d 3h
Dead:

Hand 0: 35.842% { AdQd }
Hand 1: 64.158% { AcAs, AdAs, KcKs, KdKs, JJ-77, 55, 65s }

Let X = probability villain folds.

EV of Shove is neutral when:
0 = 411(X) + (1-X)(990.6*0.35 - 328.8)
X = -5%.

So villain never has to fold for this to be +EV! A couple more numbers:
X = 0%, EV = 17.91
X = 10%, EV = 57.22
X = 20%, EV = 96.53

So, not a terrible play at all. Nice hand hero!

[/ QUOTE ]


Wow. Thanks for you effort and for the info :P.

[MrHoobris]

No problem. Found it weird when some were saying this is terrible, because the pot is so big already and villains don't have full stacks.

So now that we're essentially pot-committed, is bet/call or just straight shoving better than ch/r AI?

[berserk]

Looks ok to me, not sure why everyone hates it. Fish will sometimes do stupid things, and he certainly folds sometimes.

[linuxrocks]

[ QUOTE ]
Thought this was a difficult spot, so I decided to run the numbers on this one and got some interesting results.

Pot Size after villain bets: 333 + 78 = 411
Left to Shove: 433.8 - 105 = 328.8 (effective stacks of 433.8)
Final Pot Size if Villain Calls: 333 + 328.8*2 = 990.6

Equity when called*:
*The range will vary a lot on the donk, but in general we will always have around 35% equity with the overcards, bdfd, and gutshot.

Board: 2c 5d 3h
Dead:

Hand 0: 35.842% { AdQd }
Hand 1: 64.158% { AcAs, AdAs, KcKs, KdKs, JJ-77, 55, 65s }

Let X = probability villain folds.

EV of Shove is neutral when:
0 = 411(X) + (1-X)(990.6*0.35 - 328.8)
X = -5%.

So villain never has to fold for this to be +EV! A couple more numbers:
X = 0%, EV = 17.91
X = 10%, EV = 57.22
X = 20%, EV = 96.53

So, not a terrible play at all. Nice hand hero!

[/ QUOTE ]

This is some wishful thinking. There are some hands that you left out that may call. IMO, this guy is never folding here with his stack. Let's see the numbers

<font color="blue">Results from http:\\www.HoldEmRanger.com
83,160 evaluations, 84 hole card combos

Board: 2c 5d 3h

Wins Ties Equity
24.17% 2.83% 27.01% ( AdQd )
70.16% 2.83% 72.99% ( AA-22,A4,A5 ) </font>

0 = 411(X) + (1-X)(990.6*0.25 - 328.8) <font color="red">X = 16%</font>.

If I remove A4 and A5,

<font color="blue">Wins Ties Equity
29.18% 1.46% 30.64% ( AdQd )
67.91% 1.46% 69.36% ( AA-22 ) </font>

0 = 411(X) + (1-X)(990.6*0.3 - 328.8) <font color="red">X = 7%</font>.

So, if the guy is never folding (which is mostly true considering he is committed), this is clearly -EV. If you really wanted to do this, like some one said, better push the flop simply.

[donkeykong2]

i can never see folding here with this stack sizes and i dont see why he can never fold after leading that weak. he wont do it often though. other option would be to call after his bet was so small, i dont see how this can be good though.

[Percussion]

Yeah I think shoving or folding are the only plays. I think his hand looks like a big pair, but if you can get him to fold like one out of five times on this board (or if he can pull this bs with KQ or worse) than this is a pretty easy shove.

[shootaa]

His bet sizing looks like he just put you on AK and is trying to induce a float or a shove... pretty sure you're about to get owned here.

[Lucky]

I like a flop shove here. You may have 10 outs that are good, and bigger stacked opponent only has pot sized bet left.

Does anyone else like flop shove?

[luegofuego]

uh...

a play CAN be +EV and terrible AT THE SAME TIME

[AAismyfriend]

if you insist on doing this just shove the flop