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#14
07-29-2007, 01:42 PM
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Re: 3/6 flopped FD & gut shot in raised pot
I'd argue that part of the reason to raise the flop is to snag a free card on the turn (if needed).
He called your raise, so he likely (combined with PFR and viewing you as nitty) has a strong hand here. I don't think you move him off AK or better--he probably only chucks AQ. Any bet we make commits us to the pot. 
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#15
07-29-2007, 02:37 PM
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Re: 3/6 flopped FD & gut shot in raised pot
[ QUOTE ]
I'd argue that part of the reason to raise the flop is to snag a free card on the turn (if needed). He called your raise, so he likely (combined with PFR and viewing you as nitty) has a strong hand here. I don't think you move him off AK or better--he probably only chucks AQ. Any bet we make commits us to the pot. [/ QUOTE ] Spot on analysis. I really need a coach to help with these seemingly simple concepts. Unfortunately for me, I went with the Grand Melon theorem and fired another ~240 at the pot. Villain said "you prob have a set" and went all in. I called. River blanked and he showed AK.
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#16
07-29-2007, 02:39 PM
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Re: 3/6 flopped FD & gut shot in raised pot
Yea if I raise the flop here Im usually checking the turn. Sorry my theorem didnt work out for ya [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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#17
07-29-2007, 03:15 PM
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Re: 3/6 flopped FD & gut shot in raised pot
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#18
07-29-2007, 03:22 PM
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Re: 3/6 flopped FD & gut shot in raised pot
Good post soah, as always.
Sometimes we get all caught up in the "need to be agressive" that it can easily be overlooked that in many cases checking is perfectly acceptable--if not preferable.
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#19
07-29-2007, 03:29 PM
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Re: 3/6 flopped FD & gut shot in raised pot
[ QUOTE ]
the EV of checking [/ QUOTE ] No offense at all because i know you are a very good player and poster but.... isnt this post pretty much a break down or why taking a free card is +EV. Or am i missing somthing more subtle???? Either way the post is spot on and illistrates your point well.
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#20
07-29-2007, 11:00 PM
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Re: 3/6 flopped FD & gut shot in raised pot
the primary purpose of that thread was to address all of the "range merging" stuff that everyone was talking about at the time
the secondary purpose of the thread was to point out that just because one line is +EV doesn't mean it's the best play, because others can be more +EV (it sounds obvious, but yet...) On the turn in this hand so many players just ask themselves how often their opponent needs to fold in order to make a semibluff profitable... when you should be asking how often it needs to work in order to be more profitable than checking here if we bet the turn then there is no more money to be bet on the river if we hit, so we take away our implied odds, and we have very good equity if we take the free card... so these are both factors that should encourage us to take the free card in this spot. I'd also say that our FE is not very good here, although that's a subjective measurement.
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