panel hand - river - panel thoughts

[FUJItheFISH]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i cant see any value in a river bet. i dont know what he is possibly going to call with that you beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he donked a worse hand in the first place and then called a turn raise with it, then he's almost certainly calling the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree but i also agree that he will play a mid jack just about the same way making this difficult.

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
shillx, doesnt raising the turn help us if UTG folds OCs or a gut shot or something like that?

[/ QUOTE ]

Say that UTG has AK and EMP has J9.

If a king comes we lose to the AK. If we fold the AK and a king comes we lose to the J9. There is no point in knocking that hand out.

Now if UTG has AK and EMP has 44 then we win ourselves the pot on a river A/K by having the AK fold. That is the point though...the 44 will call on the end so a value bet is in order.

Spider,

To be honest I don't know what to do on 4th street. I haven't thought about it much but say for example that when the action gets to us that we have the best hand 40% of the time. We shouldn't raise but let's say that we do anyway. Now when the action goes UTG folds, EMP calls our chance of having the winner goes up by a lot. Aside from preventing UTG from drawing out...

1) There was some chance that UTG was slowplaying. We now know that he wasn't.

2) We eliminate a big hand for EMP when he just calls the turn raise.

We don't know any of this when the action comes to us on 4th. Now that we can eliminate both of these we have a clear value bet IMO.

[00Snitch]

[ QUOTE ]
If he donked a worse hand in the first place and then called a turn raise with it

[/ QUOTE ]

but what would he be doing that with? a nekkid 7?

[00Snitch]

[ QUOTE ]
Say that UTG has AK and EMP has J9.

If a king comes we lose to the AK. If we fold the AK and a king comes we lose to the J9. There is no point in knocking that hand out.

Now if UTG has AK and EMP has 44 then we win ourselves the pot on a river A/K by having the AK fold. That is the point though...the 44 will call on the end so a value bet is in order.

[/ QUOTE ]

that shiz iz tight!

[btspider]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
shillx, doesnt raising the turn help us if UTG folds OCs or a gut shot or something like that?

[/ QUOTE ]

Say that UTG has AK and EMP has J9.

If a king comes we lose to the AK. If we fold the AK and a king comes we lose to the J9. There is no point in knocking that hand out.

Now if UTG has AK and EMP has 44 then we win ourselves the pot on a river A/K by having the AK fold. That is the point though...the 44 will call on the end so a value bet is in order.

Spider,

To be honest I don't know what to do on 4th street. I haven't thought about it much but say for example that when the action gets to us that we have the best hand 40% of the time. We shouldn't raise but let's say that we do anyway. Now when the action goes UTG folds, EMP calls our chance of having the winner goes up by a lot. Aside from preventing UTG from drawing out...

1) There was some chance that UTG is slowplaying. We now know that he wasn't.

2) We can eliminate a big hand for EMP when he just calls the turn raise.

We don't know any of this when the action comes to us on 4th. Now that we can eliminate both of these we have a clear value bet IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

then maybe i'm disagree'ing that 1+2 turn 40% to 55%. maybe we ruled out sets from EMP and a sleeper from UTG, but I think we're primarily dealing with Jx vs 7x (and letting better and worse hands mostly cancel out). maybe that's an oversimplification.. i think to raise the turn we'd have to give him a huge range. to not raise the turn, we are giving him some credit for a lot of Jx hands.. that doesn't change much with the information we gain after our turn raise.. aside from dropping the better two pair hands.. but not enough to surpass 55%.

i'd have to break out some paper to work out the # of combos i guess. too much gut feelings in my response..

[Bilgefisher]

Ug...well now that I am in this pickle. I will bet the river. Its the only real chance of winning this hand. You have to hope they fold. I just don't like that raise on the turn. This hand is a prime example of a hand that can get out of control costing you many BB on a weak holding.

[train.]

hmmm, i was gonna check behind. But I changed my mind. He just called the turn raise and check here. I bet. Even if i'm behind here I don't think he c/r's. and I would hate to lose value when i am ahead.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
Ug...well now that I am in this pickle. I will bet the river. Its the only real chance of winning this hand. You have to hope they fold. I just don't like that raise on the turn. This hand is a prime example of a hand that can get out of control costing you many BB on a weak holding.

[/ QUOTE ]
this is really saddening that you expect the only way to win this hand is by bluffing, and that the only reason you're betting the river here is to bluff out a better hand. first of all, no one in the world would ever possibly fold a better hand to you here. second of all, why do you think people dont bet less than top pair on the flop or turn?

i remember when you were watching me play you were giving me the same kind of vibe. now obviously since i play shorthanded games exclusively, i will be more aware of spots where players will be more aggressive with weaker hands. also, since i play shorthanded, i will take the "bad in every way shape or form" read to mean not only bad at calling in the wrong places, but also donking with mediocre hands and then getting to showdown with them. saying that "the only way to win this hand is by betting" is just completely wrong. there is absolutely zero chance that betting wins this hand for us, and there is a good chance that betting wins one extra bet for us. why do you think people are suggesting to value bet?

[00Snitch]

i should add, while i appreciate and understand that concept shillx, i just dont think we are ahead enough here to bet the river.

however, i dont disagree with the turn raise. does this make sense? i guess i would have to do some maths to work it out. but this is the way i see it...

sometimes CO does have a jack, sometimes he has heaps of other stuff.

UTG is much more likely to be behind us than CO.

we dont want to give UTG the chance to catch up, so we raise to eliminate him, even if sometimes we are behind CO. we might even be behind CO most times. but that doesnt make the raise not profitable. (as i said, this will take some maths)

[train.]

[ QUOTE ]
for any panel member who suggested calling the turn, but betting for value here.. i think that analysis is inconsistent

[/ QUOTE ]

i don't see an inconsistency at all. the panel is reviewing "your" hand, one street at a time. They advised you to call the turn, not raise. But you ignored them and raised. Now that they have that information, based on the way you played your hand to this point, they are now advising you to take this line on the river.