S8/b - is it time to say uncle?

[Andy B]

Pot's too big to consider folding fifth. TT is one card away from a free-roll, and it's not like he's drawing completely dead for high or anything.

[Rush17]

I'm sorry, but this is just bad poker thinking, Andy.

How is the pot "too big"? He called one raise on 3rd, the pot is HU, and he called one small bet on 4th. This clearly is not a big pot.

His low draw should be MUCH MUCH stronger/fitted to call the big bet..much stronger than A2479 rainbow. (Still look good to you?) Trust me, by 5th street, he is not a money favorite in this hand yet he has trapped himself into the hand (which is an all too common occurance in HU pots). And of course he has to call 6th street (that's a no brainer), but rewind the hand a bit and you'll find where the TRUE fold should have been.

Calling these big bets in HU pots will rarely be profitable, and believe it or not, it's where I seem to profit the most.

[BBB]

Assuming that $2 will be raked from the pot, that means that after 4th, half the pot would be $11, or 1.83 BBs.

If I counted right, there are 38 unseen cards and 12 outs to make a low. The low will come in by the river 54% of the time.

So, assuming hero will never lose the low if it comes and assuming hero will never win the high, he'll lose 2 bets 46% of the time and win 1.83 bets 54% of the time. 0.54*1.83-0.46*2= +0.07 bets. So calling 5th (and calling 6th unimproved) would be (marginally) correct even if hero didn't have any backdoor chances for high, yes? So it must be correct to call 5th and 6th here, even if we hadn't picked up the flush draw.

[Micturition Man]

This thread is turning into a sick joke.

[Zeldark]

Smooth call to the low and the flush, maybe both.

[bugstud]

my head is asploding here.

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
my head is asploding here.

[/ QUOTE ]

makes two of us. I think when i posted this thread the answers came from the secret evil-stud forum on the other side of the universe.

[Rush17]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


[/ QUOTE ]

I think when i posted this thread the answers came from the secret evil-stud forum on the other side of the universe.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I advocated a fold on 5th street. But apparently you think that was bad advice, correct?

The object of the game is to SCOOP, not to break dead even on the hand.

Drawing to a 7 w/no straight/flush draw when you're HU against an obvious high hand and who also won't give ANY free cards is not the ideal approach to stud8. Had your HU opponent had different tendencies and you thought you could take him off of his hand, then yes, calling 5th and/or raising 4th has a lot more merit...AND value. As it stands, though, your call on 5th is really not that swift. You could find better spots is all that I'm suggesting.

If the hand was multiway and you felt that you were either the only one going low or if you had the best low draw, then yes, a call on 5th would be correct (re: profitable)

Now, others on here gave you different opinions: some said they would raise 4th while others said to just call. You then came back and pretty much disagreed with everyone. Well, what answer(s) were you hoping to receive, then? I mean, if you're going to call 5th with complete certainty and anticipation (as if you held some BIG draw), why are you unsure about what to do on 6th? It's obvious that you have to call now that you've picked up the double draw. If/when you blank out on the river, you fold.

And you're head hurts? wow.

[*TT*]

OK everyone... time to break out your equity sims. Blumpkin and I have been AIMing back and forth, the hand is even more complex than I anticipated.

1) I am 90% positive the villain has TT,JJ,KK,Ax, or the highly unlikely QQ in the hole.

2) If the villain holds AA in the hole I am a dog on 4th street, anything else within his range including QQ and its its nearly split equity.

3) If the villain holds AA in the hole then I am a huge dog on 5th.

How about some street by street analysis guys to back up your beliefs? Doings some weighted outs calculations might be necessary, this one is gonna be a pain.

adanthar - Blumpkin normally raises 4th to inflate the size of the pot and take the position lead, but he knows its essentially an equity wash and is OK with a call based on my read. I am on the fence now because the hand has me so baffled.

[adanthar]

yeah, but what's any of that have to do with folding sixth? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I mean, if not for the title, I'd assume you wanted to sexy bluff raise, heh (seems like a bad idea but it's not totally out of the question...)

so yeah, am I just reading the title wrong?