Paperchamp's NFL Week 6

[Crusher19]

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Perhaps the fact that you are betting on a 1-3 team giving up points on the road?
That said, I'd take the Eagles here too if I really had to bet on this game. I wouldn't go out of my way to do it, though.

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i think this says alot about what oddsmakes think of the jets

[B00T]

I am a Jets fan and would take Philly -3 in a heartbeat, especially with Westbrook already practicing this week

[MacGuyV]

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Stl +10? Ravens haven't had a tough schedule and they're still only rockin' 19 ppg against and 17 ppg for.

I want to jump on it, but I guess people are just thinking stl will only get one score since they are averaging 14 ppg and the ravens D is obv one of the best?

Any thoughts?

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I'm a huge Ravens fan and jumped on StL immediately when the line opened. Ravens are 0-5 ATS and have done nothing to justify being a double digit fav over anyone this season.

I expect them to win, but I also expect the score to be close.

- C -

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There's anyone and then there's the Rams on the road. Much like the Colts home games, you have to take on an extra 3 pts to what you think the line should be because they're just that good/terrible.
The Ravens will have 100 yards of offense at the half and a 14pt lead, and Gus Forrotte will be dropping back to pass on 3rd&12 in the 3rd Qtr inside his 10yd line...just remember that.

Guess the Lines

Right now I'm leaning:
Chiefs +3
Texans +6.5
Raiders +10
Seahawks -6.5
Packers -3

I'm pretty sure the road team has a better record straight up the last 15 years in that Chargers-Raiders series. The Chargers actually benefitted from some head-scratching officiating to beat them at home last year. I never like Seattle, but I think the Hawks/Bolts lines are flip-flopped.

[psuasskicker]

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Stl +10? Ravens haven't had a tough schedule and they're still only rockin' 19 ppg against and 17 ppg for.

I want to jump on it, but I guess people are just thinking stl will only get one score since they are averaging 14 ppg and the ravens D is obv one of the best?

Any thoughts?

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I'm a huge Ravens fan and jumped on StL immediately when the line opened. Ravens are 0-5 ATS and have done nothing to justify being a double digit fav over anyone this season.

I expect them to win, but I also expect the score to be close.

- C -

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There's anyone and then there's the Rams on the road. Much like the Colts home games, you have to take on an extra 3 pts to what you think the line should be because they're just that good/terrible.
The Ravens will have 100 yards of offense at the half and a 14pt lead, and Gus Forrotte will be dropping back to pass on 3rd&12 in the 3rd Qtr inside his 10yd line...just remember that.

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I think it's fine to say that, but it's another thing to actually wind up doing it. The Ravens were big favs against the Jets and Cards too, and had big leads in both games in the 4th Q.

The Ravens flat out are not that good a team right now. They're 3-2 against teams that are a combined 6-13 in games outside of Ravens games. They've got a ton of injuries with guys who either won't start or will be ailing if they do (McNair, Ogden, Terry, Flynn, Heap, Wilcox, Pryce, Rolle). And of course as mentioned, they're 0-5 ATS so far.

No matter how bad the Rams are, the Ravens don't deserve to be 10 pt favs over anyone. I really hope they do crush them. But I've been hoping that for five games, and until they can prove that they can solidly beat a team, I'm taking anyone getting a double digit spread vs. them, cause flat out it's too many points.

- C -

[kyro]

I agree with pak. The Ravens offense is really, really, I mean really bad. Looks like a 17-13 game to me.

[kyro]

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First play...

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns -4 (-110)
Risking 2.2u to win 2u

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I love this bet. I expect this to be a very high scoring game. 35-24, Browns is my prediction.

[Jazzy3113]

paper champ, what is your record this year?

[paperchamp]

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paper champ, what is your record this year?

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Sorry, I usually post it. I updated it in last week's thread and forgot to post it here.

YTD

8-11-1
-7.3u

Was down over 12 units but I'm trying to mount a comeback.

[Jazzy3113]

No one likes Cincy at Arrowhead or San Diego at home?

I'm impressed that you have the balls to bet the spreads as I only use teases now, but I have a question.
If you like the Jets +3 at home(I like Eagles, but grew up there so maybe Im biased on this one) why not bet the ML?
Isnt there more value in the ML for a home dog when the line is not 3.5 or greater?

[paperchamp]

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And another...

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets +3 (-110)
Risking 1.1u to win 1u

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can you explain this one? I'm actually looking to bet the other side. Talk me out of it?

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I love taking a mediocre AFC dog at home against an equally mediocre NFC team. I have the Jets as being slightly underrated which also explains my play last week.

I'm also fading the public. Both teams are off to a bad start. Public perception is that while Philly is likely to bounce back at some point, the Jets are just a horrible team and will remain that way. Philly would probably be a BSP pick this week if it wasn't for their terrible game on Sunday night football last week.