Gentleman, give it to me straight, do you think the sky is falling?

[tubasteve]

cash games everywhere have gotten either significantly tougher or im just running like ass, fwiw

but seriously, lol donkaments. theyre still gonna be really profitable for a while as long as you play on the big sites like stars imo

[RonFezBuddy]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't think a good player will become -ev long term since there are still foreign fish playing, but I do think historical ROI's will be harder to realize from now on.


[/ QUOTE ]

Your scenario is a very real possiblity and most likely to happen. In the short-term, sites will continue to shrink as recreational players lose their funds and cannot redeposit easily.

Only those who really care about poker will go through the hoops of depositing. Those who really care are usually the ones who read books, read 2+2, and practice a lot. Those are your better players.

This is assumes the sites that serve US customers stay open to US customers, which is not a guarantee IMO. I hate to verbalize this but I think you have to start considering the possiblility that the market in the US closes, at least for a little while.

Without too much hearsay, I think there is one eventual outcome and it most definitely includes online poker for US customers, although there could be a period where sites are shutdown and the industry reorganizes.

Long-term I think we are going to see the major casinos get in on the act legally (by US government-defined standards). I think we'll see a regulated, tax-generating industry that has some sort of governmental oversight, just like the casinos. The business is too big, and the demand is quite large. I think that there must be a comprimise out there but maybe I am naive.

When this happens, if Stars is not granted license to operate, my hope is that Stars is either bought or forms some sort of partnership with Harrah's. They are the best run businesses in their respective fields and I think we'd all be fine if that happened. Harrah's prime competitive advantage is their customer relationship management and have a very strong management team that is forward thinking in respect to where the industry is going and how to serve customers. Sounds like Pokerstars to me.

There are a series of events that have to happen for this to take place but I believe they eventually will in a shape that resembles this outcome.

[EvanJC]

lots and lots of credit cards still work for depositing. i think people tend to forget this when having this discussion.

[tubasteve]

Something I just thought of...recently I've seen at Stars peak times over 100k people logged in to the servers. I can't remember ever seeing this before the gambling bill. So there are still lots of people playing, some good, some bad, but there are still people. If you want to keep winning, get better.

[Mondogarage]

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Not a big deal about the hold on the check, but I don't see a lot of casual player's sticking around with all the aggrivation involved with getting money on and off the sites.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly.

For the poster who said tons of credit cards still deposit -- well, the most casual players (e.g. fish) are not going to go shopping for pre-paid VISAs just to continue a game they've been losing at, anyway.

And, just because you can still find ways to get money on to sites doesn't mean you can conveniently get money off the sites.

No, the sky's not falling -- the hard core will continue to find ways to play, to deposit, and with enough work, to withdraw. But those are the hard core who actually read and study the game, play lots of hands, etc, etc. So the game at all levels will get more difficult. The marginally profitable players will find themselves unprofitable as the fish slowly drain off, and the cycle continues. But there will continue to be ways for US online players to play, somehow.

I just don't get it. In the face of mountains of evidence to the contrary (lower guarantees, less players in $$$ games, smaller tourney fields, etc.), there seems to be an awful lot of pollyanna-ish group think here at 2+2 that everything is bound to be hunky dory, this coming from people who are otherwise really quite smart. I just don't get it.

[burningyen]

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Do people really think tourneys are getting tougher?

[/ QUOTE ]
Either that or I'm getting worse at poker. Which is entirely possible.

[aejones]

Slowly but surely, the answer to your question is yes.

[RonFezBuddy]

[ QUOTE ]
Something I just thought of...recently I've seen at Stars peak times over 100k people logged in to the servers. I can't remember ever seeing this before the gambling bill.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this started happening shortly after Party pulled out. This won't continue if the flow of funds is not available for recreational players.

[THAY3R]

Look on the bright side : You won't even have to move up in stakes now for players to respect your raises.

[Mondogarage]

Yup, when I raise pot in the cutoff in a 10NL, you foos better respek! LOL