QQ hand as big stack - please comment

[kleinfeld]

i assume everyone in this tourney started with 1500 chips, making the average stack just over 50k. You're in a good position right now in the tourney... when you raise UTG as a big stack, a reraise from the only other big stack at the table seems like a very strong hand. I would say his possible range of hands here are AK or JJ+, as mentioned in an earlier post. I assume i'll be criticised for saying this, but folding right here seems like the best play to me. Why risk your great position in the tournament on a hand where you think you are probably behind?.. obviously, things would be totally different if you raised from the CO then he reraises from the bb, in this situation i would just shove, because his range of possible hands is so large that QQ would be a favourite against the majority of his holdings... but, in the actual hand, i see no reason to risk your great position in the tournament right now.... although i've called or pushed many times in similar situations, where it just doesn't feel right. It is always difficult to fold QQ preflop, and i am certainly not saying it is a bad play to play this hand. Just think folding may be better due to your great position in the tournament.

[Beachman42]

[ QUOTE ]
i assume everyone in this tourney started with 1500 chips, making the average stack just over 50k. You're in a good position right now in the tourney... when you raise UTG as a big stack, a reraise from the only other big stack at the table seems like a very strong hand. I would say his possible range of hands here are AK or JJ+, as mentioned in an earlier post. I assume i'll be criticised for saying this, but folding right here seems like the best play to me. Why risk your great position in the tournament on a hand where you think you are probably behind?.. obviously, things would be totally different if you raised from the CO then he reraises from the bb, in this situation i would just shove, because his range of possible hands is so large that QQ would be a favourite against the majority of his holdings... but, in the actual hand, i see no reason to risk your great position in the tournament right now.... although i've called or pushed many times in similar situations, where it just doesn't feel right. It is always difficult to fold QQ preflop, and i am certainly not saying it is a bad play to play this hand. Just think folding may be better due to your great position in the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll try to keep it civil, but this is the type of thinking that makes GOOD players the most $$ (by playing AGAINST weak/tight opponents). You cannot win or even FT with your current stack. Period. You have the 3rd best hand, you have to assign a RANGE of hands for villian. Against JJ+ & AK, you have very favorable pot odds to call the re-raise pf. Several better posters will insta-push, but I like the call option as stated earlier.

Your "analysis" is based upon qualitative aspects with absolutely no quantitative consideration. If you do not "do the math" before every decision, you are doomed to be a "lucky" player only. Download pokerstove Pokerstove and develop the discipline of using it. Pretty soon you will have the experience of knowing the pot odds intuitively. Hope this helps.

[NakedNoggin]

Gosh I do not like your spot. He has position on you but to me his bet seems more like he is trying to avoid actions. If that is the read I make then I would put in a big reraise and hope like heck that I made the right read. Anyway...what happen?

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm calling here & getting AI with no A or K on the flop

[/ QUOTE ] That makes no sense to me. You are still losing all of your chips to AA or KK. You are still getting all of JJ's chips if the flop comes up low.

The only advantage is that you are saving some chips if an A or K hits, and your opponent has AK. This is offset by the times that an A or K hits and someone with a worse hand takes the pot away from you, and by the times that A or K does not hit and the AK gets away with most of his chips.

[NakedNoggin]

ooops...just read what he had and I made the wrong read and went broke. That is about par for me.

[Stumpy]

[ QUOTE ]
Pre-flop: (9 players) l33twingman is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">l33twingman raises to t9000</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises to t30000</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP3 calls all-in t966</font>, 4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">l33twingman ... </font>

[/ QUOTE ]


You guys are obviously overlooking the importance of MP3 here.


Seriously though, I would love to see more opinions on this hand, because it's a situation we all run into often, and it is always for a ton of chips.

You can't call for set value alone, because you're calling 20k into a 40k pot with 95k left with your opponent, or 7:1 odds. So folding is better than that.


I liked Balze's point about leading any Axx flop, but I did the math, and it's pretty interesting...

If an A hits, there are 15 AA,AK combos that Villian could have, and 19 TT-KK combos. So 56% of time time he's folding to your lead assuming he always gives up.

21k to call + 30k lead = 51k into a 40k pot, and win 56% of the time.

+40k*(.56) - 51k*(.44) = -40.

So the play is completely break even.


An A will only hit about 20% of the time for villian's range. Since set value isn't there the other 80% of the time, I think it has to be push or fold preflop. Otherwise you're just folding hands you're ahead of and giving chips to the guy when he's ahead.

I was joking about MP3, but he does allow you to fold at some point and still get a read on MP2.

Stumpy

[mlagoo]

I just wanted to chime in and say that I don't know what to do, but for no other reason other than I have QQ preflop in an $11 tourney, I would usually push.

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
Against JJ+ &amp; AK, you have very favorable pot odds to call the re-raise pf. Several better posters will insta-push, but I like the call option as stated earlier.


[/ QUOTE ] I think the pf call is not the right play, as I stated in an earlier post. So I think the correct way to figure the odds here is to assume that you push and that you are called. In that situation, you are risking 116k to win 142k, or 1.2:1. Against JJ+, AKo, AKs, it is profitable to push, but not by much. I calculate that you will win, on average, about 6k. If you widen his range to include TT or AQ, than it is very profitable to push. If you narrow his range by assuming that JJ or AK is less likely to play this way than AA or KK (or that JJ might actually fold to your push), then your profit goes away.

[Beachman42]

No argument with your analysis of the end game, but calling is still a viable option based upon pot odds offered. You can push the flop or not since you are the first to act depending on the cards that come. There are more AK &amp; JJ combinations than there are AA &amp; KK. NOT seeing an A or K on the flop (which is likely to be the case) swings the math solidly in our favor. Make no mistake, my chips are getting in, but I think I'd like to see the flop first.

[allenciox]

I think his range for the initial raise might be broader than stated here, perhaps TT+, AQs+,AKo. But I don't think he calls a reraise all-in with all these hands. Let's make some conservative assumptions: That he raised with only JJ+,AQs+,or AKo. Then, if we reraise all-in he will fold JJ or AQs. So our equity if he calls our all-in is:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 40.2071 % 38.35% 01.86% { QQ }
Hand 2: 59.7929 % 57.93% 01.86% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

29 out of 37 of his initial possible hands he calls our all-in with, and 8 out of 37 he folds. When he folds we gain 45k. When I run the analysis, I come up with a expected net gain of 4.7k TC when we raise all-in.