Heisman odds

[sfwusc]

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No way someone from ta weakass conf., esepcially with that cream puff schedule, is going to get the votes. He may be a finalists, but he doesn't have a shot in hell of winning.

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I didnt say USC schedule was cream puff. I just said N. Illois schedule wasn't cream puff. The SEC is insane, and USC last year would have lost a game in the regular season playing in the SEC. PAC 10 might be better than it is given credit for, and is likely 3rd in the BCS conferences.

-SFWUSC

Yea Ohio State and Iowa suck. USC schedule last year looked about as hard, and Bush won. Not saying it is exactly the same thing, but the schedule isnt going to be a reason for him not to win. Not enough media hype might be a better reason for him not to win. There was a ton of value at +6000.

I will pass at +1800.

-SFWUSC

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/teams/nns/schedule

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Look up the Sagarin Rankings...

Lets post some random ones and guess which is which....

78.37( 8)
73.42( 50)
77.10( 14)
76.40( 20)

USC
ND
LSU
Temple

Yes, it includes bowl games. Yes, Sagarin has flaws. Creampuff hardly. Pac10 is as underrated as the SEC is overrated. And almost all BCS conferences in terms of Heisman contention are viewed fairly closely. Wolfe from the MAC obviously has the hardest road to go through.

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[BobJoeJim]

Wolfe has zero chance of actually winning unless he breaks Barry Sanders' record. He will be an automatic finalist, brought along as a nod to the mid-majors, while the award goes to someone else. If he DOES break the record (before the bowl game), then he could have a shot. Yes his upcoming schedule is soft, but he still needs to average around 225 yards per game to get there.

I don't see value with the line anywhere under +3000 right now. 225/game is a LOT to ask, for no guarantees.

[iggymcfly]

Yeah, I agree most of the value's gone now. Like I said, I bet $100 and moved the line almost 400 points, so I figured a few people tailing me would be enough to bring it back in line. I do think Wolfe's got a legitimate shot though. Wolfe's currently on pace to break Sanders' record by 58 yards, just in the regular season, and if the Huskies make the MAC title game, he could have blown it away by the time Heisman voting starts. Also, I think that big game he had against Ohio State is huge to showing he could do it against good competition, and if he comes up with a similar performance against Iowa, he could sway a lot of voters.

[Tuds75]

I got two words for anyone who thinks Garrett Wolfe will win the Heisman...TROY DAVIS, He ran for 2,000 yards in consecutive seasons and he played in a major conference. He also rushed for 378 yards in a game. Garrett Wolfe is a nice story, but unless they win out and make a major bowl (which will not happen). The writting is on the wall for Wolfe, if he is invited that should be enough recognition for Wolfe.

Doesn't anyone else think Chris Leak is a great value at +2000. I mean he is the leader of the #2 team in the nation. He is on national TV on an almost weekly basis. He is a senior and a QB. And if Flordia wins out they would have defeated, LSU, Auburn, Georgia, Tennessee, FSU, and a conference title game, which will assure them to be playing for the national championship. Yes he loses some TDs to Tebow, but Reggie Bush lost a lot of TDs to Lenny White and it didn't hurt him any.

Tuds

[smbruin22]

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Doesn't anyone else think Chris Leak is a great value at +2000. I mean he is the leader of the #2 team in the nation. He is on national TV on an almost weekly basis. He is a senior and a QB. And if Flordia wins out they would have defeated, LSU, Auburn, Georgia, Tennessee, FSU, and a conference title game, which will assure them to be playing for the national championship. Yes he loses some TDs to Tebow, but Reggie Bush lost a lot of TDs to Lenny White and it didn't hurt him any.

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yeah, i think leak looks good (tebow getting publicity is probably bad though. stupid voters will think they platoon).

booty at 40-1 looks decent (although if quinn and peterson are still considered strong candidates, then leak and booty may be sunk).

what about rutgers TB (rice) and missouri QB (daniels? although not sure about his stats)... but two crazy undefeateds)

[iggymcfly]

For the record, I don't think Pinny adjusts these lines much if at all based on performance. They just leave them out there, and wait for people to bet them down if they get off somehow. I think the general trend would be to overvalue players like Quinn and Peterson that had hype going into the season and to undervalue players like Wolfe or Booty that are making names for themselves. With that said, I can't see the voters giving it to a USC player for the third year in a row, even if just to avoid the perception of bias.

Also, Pinny says lines for other players are available on request, so if you want to take a longshot like Chase Daniel or Erik Ainge, you might be able to get a good payout.

[blackjack777]

I had Troy Smith at 15 to 1 on sportsbook.com

But it was canceled and refunded to me today. I am going to seriously beat my dog tonight.

Thanks Bush.

[Derek123]

Wolfe 18 carries for 25 yards today. going to need some HUGE games now.

[blackjack777]

I am now even madder that Sportsbook.com took down my Troy Smith wagers at 10 and 15 to 1, those bitches.

[smbruin22]

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what about rutgers TB (rice) and missouri QB (daniels? although not sure about his stats)... but two crazy undefeateds)

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rice is looking better and better, although i suppose the race is smith's to lose with quinn still hanging around and some potential WVU action too.

too bad you can't bet on them getting to new york... because i am reasonable in knowing rice won't actually win it (11-0 rutgers and 50-1 odds today would look awfully good)