A question for those who study the NFL draft

[CharlieDontSurf]

Leonard Davis was a very good guard..then the douchebag Dennis Green decided to make him a left tackle

[VarlosZ]

As usual, my post has to do with Football Outsiders. David Lewin, a current Division III quarterback, developed for them a system that projects QBs' success based on their college stats. It turns out that the only college stats with a strong correlation to NFL success are completion percentage and games started (or, alternately, passes thrown). The system only applies to QBs taken in the first two rounds, to weed out college QBs who clearly don't have the skills to make it in the NFL, but who put up great numbers because of the system they're in (I'm looking at you, Texas Tech).

It's accuracy seems pretty impressive. It would have pegged Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Jim Druckenmiller, Joey Harrington, Kyle Boller, Marques Tuiasosopo, Quincy Carter, Charlie Batch, and J.P. Losman as total busts.

Jake Plummer, Drew Brees, David Carr, Patrick Ramsey, Eli Manning, Rex Grossman, and Alex Smith come out as servicable-to-good starters. (Look at the seasons Carr and Smith are having right now for proof that this is probably an accurate prediction for them.)

Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Chad Pennington, Daunte Culpepper, Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich, and Ben Roethlisberger come out as very good-to-excellent.

There are only a few cases where the projection system was significantly off. It liked Tim Couch a lot, but Couch played under Mike Leach at Kansas, which artificially inflated his Comp%, and he started for an expansion team, which really hurts any QB's career. It thought Cade McNown would be a decent starter (and McNown wasn't good, but he wasn't as bad as a lot of people think). It thought Michael Vick would be an even worse passer than he is, but Vick is a unique player in so many ways, it's going to be hard for any system to account for him.


Anyway, among current young QBs: the system thinks that Philip Rivers will be a superstar, it thinks that Jason Campbell and Matt Leinart will be excellent, and it thinks that Jay Cutler and Vince Young will be very good passers (it doesn't take into account Young's running ability). It thinks Kellen Clemens was a steal for the Jets in the second round (pretty good starter-type), while the Vikings are mostly wasting their time with Tarvaris Jackson.


I strongly recommend their latest book, Pro Football Prospectus 2006, which contains a lot more information on the projection system, plus just about anything else you might want to know about the NFL.

[siccjay]

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It liked Tim Couch a lot, but Couch played under Mike Leach at Kansas, which artificially inflated his Comp%

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He played for Kentucky, but still a very short screen pass happy system at the time.

[TheNoodleMan]

What did it say about David Klingler and Andre Ware?

and I assume you meant Kentucky and not Kansas in regards to Couch.

[TheRover]

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It liked Tim Couch a lot, but Couch played under Mike Leach at Kansas, which artificially inflated his Comp%

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He played for Kentucky, but still a very short screen pass happy system at the time.

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And still had Leach as his coordinator.

[RunDownHouse]

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It would have pegged Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Jim Druckenmiller, Joey Harrington, Kyle Boller, Marques Tuiasosopo, Quincy Carter, Charlie Batch, and J.P. Losman as total busts.

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Total busts? There's two current starters on that list, plus at least one who's started this season. Guys like Losman may not be a great success, but I would hardly classify him as a total bust. That, to me, means a couple years bouncing around and then out of the league.

[THAY3R]

I think the point is that they were predicted to be total busts, no?

[Jeff W]

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Total busts? There's two current starters on that list, plus at least one who's started this season. Guys like Losman may not be a great success, but I would hardly classify him as a total bust. That, to me, means a couple years bouncing around and then out of the league.

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Well, I think your definition is too stringent. Joey Harrington was the #3 overall draft choice and he's averaged 5.73 yards/pass attempt--that's more than enough to qualify as a bust in my book.

I agree that it's too early to call Losman a bust. He has improved substantially from his sophomore year and he was a late first rounder(22nd overall) to begin with.

[VarlosZ]

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It would have pegged Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Jim Druckenmiller, Joey Harrington, Kyle Boller, Marques Tuiasosopo, Quincy Carter, Charlie Batch, and J.P. Losman as total busts.

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Total busts? There's two current starters on that list, plus at least one who's started this season. Guys like Losman may not be a great success, but I would hardly classify him as a total bust. That, to me, means a couple years bouncing around and then out of the league.

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I'd call a high draft pick whose upside is "below average starter" a bust. I agree it's too early to write off Losman completely, but the future isn't exactly looking bright. I should also note that I used the phrase "total bust" to include players who were projected as flat out horrible as well as players who projected as poor starters/good backups.

[prohornblower]

Kickers and Punters are probably the most predictable. FB's are probably pretty predictable.

I'd imagine RB's are very unpredictable (due to their dependency on a good Line).