NBA Overlays - November

[rjp]

Memphis Grizzlies +9.5 (-115)

Given the current market price for this game of the Lakers winning ~81% of the time, a positive expectation is had with the Grizzlies at this price.

In this case I’ve bought to +9.5 -115 over +9 -105. By doing this I’m taking a higher winning percentage in exchange for a very slight decrease in expected ROI (about 0.30% by my calculations).

[rjp]

YTD: 14-11-0 (+1.52 units; ROI: 6.08%)

Cleveland Cavaliers -240

You're getting the worst of it laying 5.5 points with Cleveland, but getting the Cavs at -250 or better provides a positive expectation.

[rjp]

Cleveland Cavaliers / New York Knicks UNDER 199 (-110)

New York is good at giving up a lot of points, but Cleveland isn’t a team that pushes up and down the court for an entire game. Cleveland is likely to control the tempo, and the true odds for this game figure to be closer to 190.

[rjp]

YTD: 16-11-0 (+2.85 units; ROI: 10.56%)

New Orleans Hornets -300

The injury to David West is likely the reason the Hornets are only favored by this much. Charlotte is a young team that will struggle, especially on the road.

New Orleans is a good team, but they hit a slump out West, and they should be motivated to change now that they’re at home. Don’t let the injury to West deter you.

Golden State Warriors -250

Like Charlotte, Toronto is another team that will struggle. Golden State has won two straight at home, and they should continue that in this game.

If you feel the Warriors have no chance of overlooking the Raptors then laying the points is profitable. After two straight wins and going against a lowly team I figure Golden State will, from time to time, come out flat. They should still win this game often enough to be profitable at this price, but not against the spread.

[rjp]

YTD: 18-11-0 (+3.58 units; ROI: 12.34%)

Portland Trail Blazers +12 (-108)

Portland is struggling with injury issues, and they'll be playing the second game of a back-to-back tonight. This is plenty enough reason for most bettors to throw money on the Cavs, but not enough reason for Portland to be getting 12 points.

Washington Wizards -150

Washington has yet to win a game on the road, and New York has yet to win a game at home. One of these teams will change that tonight, and it will most likely be the Wizards. New York will play hard, but have yet to prove they're any better than last year. Given the Wizards preceived road troubles this is a generous line for Washington, as they should win this matchup often enough for this price to prove profitable.

Charlotte Bobcats +11.5 (-104)

Charlotte faces the Spurs tonight, with both teams playing the second game of a back-to-back. The Spurs are obviously the better team, but Charlotte will more often than not keep this respectable.

[rjp]

YTD: 19-13-0 (+2.54 units; ROI: 7.94%)

Houston Rockets -200

[whipsaw]

[ QUOTE ]
YTD: 19-13-0 (+2.54 units; ROI: 7.94%)

Houston Rockets -200

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you calculate your units? Maybe I'm missing something but you should've dropped more than a unit yesterday.

[rjp]

How do you subtract?

Started up 3.58 units, and now I'm up 2.54 units, for a 1.04 unit loss yesterday: 3.58 - 2.54 = 1.04.

[Thremp]

rjp,

He doesn't realize you are only risking 1u per pick (if I am doing my math right). Most people assume to win 1u on faves and risk 1u on dogs.

[rjp]

YTD: 20-13-0 (+3.04 units; ROI: 9.21%)

Washington Wizards / Detroit Pistons OVER 201.5 (-103)

Both teams are motivated to score points tonight, and play so far this season shows the true odds for this game to be ~210.

There have been some tough nights offensively for Detroit due to injury, but that shouldn’t be an issue in this game.

Dallas Mavericks -220

Dallas is finally coming together, while Memphis might be starting to fall apart. Memphis is searching for any type of life right now, as they opted to push the tempo against Sacramento and still came out with the same result: a loss. Dallas should win this game often enough to be profitable at these odds. Laying 5.5 points provides no value.

Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 (-106)

The Suns took care of Memphis in their last game out, but they might still be without Bell. Phoenix has surely played a little worse than can be expected in the future, but they shouldn’t be laying this many points to most decent teams. Philadelphia will likely lose this game, but they should cover 7.5 points more often than not.

LA Lakers -325

Kobe dropped 81 points on the Raptors last year, and that’ll be one of the only ways to hype this game. Toronto isn’t playing very well, and they will likely struggle to win again on the road. LA has been playing well, and they shouldn’t overlook the Raptors tonight. There is no value with laying 8 points.