Big Arb on Hilary...

[primetime32]

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I'd be happy to tutor you. I charge $75 an hour, Paypal is accepted.

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you made the claim, back it up

[Freerollin`]

You were missed.[/sarcasm]

[centris]

Let's say we have 100 to spend on this. What is the optimal way to bet it? We will be x on the 'no.' So we 1.1x-(100-x)=1.29(100-x)-x. So we bet $52.16 on the no and $47.84 on the yes. Thus we can expect a return of $9.55.

Now let's say we put the money in a money market account for two years. The return will be 100-100e^(2*r) where r is the interest rate. So let's see what rate we need to break even 109.55=100e^(2r). So r=.0456.

Can you get better than that?

[thing85]

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Let's say we have 100 to spend on this. What is the optimal way to bet it? We will be x on the 'no.' So we 1.1x-(100-x)=1.29(100-x)-x. So we bet $52.16 on the no and $47.84 on the yes. Thus we can expect a return of $9.55.

Now let's say we put the money in a money market account for two years. The return will be 100-100e^(2*r) where r is the interest rate. So let's see what rate we need to break even 109.55=100e^(2r). So r=.0456.

Can you get better than that?

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In your average money market account, unlikely. In an online savings account, maybe. We can't exactly predict the interest rates in the next 2 years, but it wouldn't surprise me if they went down a little.

A more accurate claim would be that you are better off putting this money into a 2-year CD which you can almost certainly get for >5% (probably closer to 6%).

[kioshk]

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The DNC is scheduled for Aug. 25-28, 2008

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The DNC is the Democratic National Committee, not the Democratic National Convention. At least that's the convention.

[ImBen]

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You were missed.[/sarcasm]

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Your html is almost as poor as your handicapping.

[chev9]

If you're willing to tie up money for two years, just load up on the no bet. No way she's getting the nomination. I don't even think she's going to run.

[Freerollin`]

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You were missed.[/sarcasm]

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Your html is almost as poor as your handicapping.

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ZING!!!

Ok, brought a smile.

[caguma]

I'd load up on the no personally. Hillary's way too much to the left for Dems to run her in '08. The GOP's alienated so many people that if the Dems run someone closer to the middle or at least less controversal they'd win in a landslide.

My money's on Obama.

[primetime32]

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I'd load up on the no personally. Hillary's way too much to the left for Dems to run her in '08. The GOP's alienated so many people that if the Dems run someone closer to the middle or at least less controversal they'd win in a landslide.

My money's on Obama.

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black guy with arab sounding name is LESS Controversial> interesting