#11
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
when you see a line like Team A -2.5 should that sound off some warning bells? It seems to good to be true, like the books want us to take that line. I am avoiding the Philly and GB games as I think any of the four teams could win. If I do bet, I will give the home dogs 6 points however.
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#12
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
my concern was that GB was -1
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#13
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
I'm not concerned about GB. They just beat the Chargers and Min lost to the Lions. Wasn't GB also close to -2.5 against the Giants? Look how that turned out.
I'm probably gonna bet on Chicago now too since Griese is the starting QB |
#14
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
I'm not sure you're getting my point
you bet at -2.5 when -1 was widely available you just gave up a huge amount of edge |
#15
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
I only have money on Bodog since I'm 18 so I take what Bodog gives me.
Edit: Also I'm not too worried about this game being close or else I wouldn't have made the bet. |
#16
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
I know a lot of people follow the "fade the public" theory here. Any guesses on what those games are? I like Min +1 and Atl +3.
Also Wonged Min and SF to +8.5 yesterday on Bodog. |
#17
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
I'm pretty sure GB will be the biggest public play this week.
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#18
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
[ QUOTE ]
dear guys who can predict line movements_ I'm curious as to the chances of Houston/Atlanta moving off the 3 and Chicago/Det moving off 2.5 what do you see happening for both games? [/ QUOTE ] The Houston line was on -2.5 for a while (I got some). I don't think there is much chance for it to move off the 3 now that it's there. If anything it will hit -2.5 again because I think the sharps are on Atlanta at +3. |
#19
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty sure GB will be the biggest public play this week. [/ QUOTE ] I think Pitt too but that might be a later game so not sure if you just meant the biggest of the ones in this subset... - C - |
#20
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 9/30/07 NFL EARLY GAME THREAD ***
[ QUOTE ]
I know a lot of people follow the "fade the public" theory here. Any guesses on what those games are? I like Min +1 and Atl +3. Also Wonged Min and SF to +8.5 yesterday on Bodog. [/ QUOTE ] Nice, I like the tease at those numbers. Maybe throw in the Giants at 2.5 teased 6. I agree with a6 sicilian in that an accurate spread for that game is 1-2. |
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