worst boat on the lake

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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CR CAP RIVER WTF @ BET/CALL

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if you c/r, and get 3bet, you are losing almost always. putting in 4 bets in on this river is too much. Two is either just right or too weak.

The problem with 3, is you are back to being done almost always.

I'd probably c/r and call a 3bang.

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I dont see how the hero's losing even after being 3bet, so I would cap the river and expect to see an overplayed straight, overplayed T9s, J9s or Q9s most of the time.

[TheHip41]

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CR CAP RIVER WTF @ BET/CALL

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if you c/r, and get 3bet, you are losing almost always. putting in 4 bets in on this river is too much. Two is either just right or too weak.

The problem with 3, is you are back to being done almost always.

I'd probably c/r and call a 3bang.

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I dont see how the hero's losing even after being 3bet, so I would cap the river and expect to see an overplayed straight, overplayed T9s, J9s or Q9s most of the time.

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I misread the PF. I thought the OP raised, and the button 3banged PF.

If this was the PF action, would you agree with me then?


sorry for the confusion, just keep betting and hope for the best [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[jstill]

his most likely hands for me after preflop and the flop are QJ KQ J9 KT Q9 or AQ (which id be surprised to see not 3bet preflop) also maybe something like Acxc particularly AT of clubs.

On the river I think QJ KQ check behind. I doubt AQ or KT raise a river donk (probably being too skeptical here but thats part of the great part about not minding calling a raise when u donk is this possibility of a worse hand raising for value) and I definitely dont think those 2 hands 3bet a check-raise. The ace high flush may 3bet a cr and obviously QQ JJ AA Q9 J9 do (the first three should obviously be discounted due to preflop).

This is basically just what went through my head in about the 5 seconds between the time the river card came out and I had to pick a button to push. Just that his most likely hands may check behind (the weaker ones) and the stronger but still worser hands mite raise my donk (but didnt want to give the other better hands a chance to cap which with our likely equity was probably a mistake). I just thought after the flop and turn action if he still wanted to put more bets in after i donk or cr ON THIS RIVER it probably skews his hands moreso to something he played odd preflop?

I dont think ive been in the bet call camp too often in these kinda spots (and really still am not here)since usually u gain the same ahead as if u check and lose more behind vs check call and often are more likely to get 2 bets in good by cr'ing vs bet calling, but it doesnt seem quite as clear cut here since i lose value to some hands that check behind and I can still get 2 bets in good by donking pretty often. Obviously I didnt really think the hand through at the time though.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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his most likely hands for me after preflop and the flop are QJ KQ J9 KT Q9 or AQ (which id be surprised to see not 3bet preflop) also maybe something like Acxc particularly AT of clubs.

On the river I think QJ KQ check behind. I doubt AQ or KT raise a river donk (probably being too skeptical here but thats part of the great part about not minding calling a raise when u donk is this possibility of a worse hand raising for value) and I definitely dont think those 2 hands 3bet a check-raise. The ace high flush may 3bet a cr and obviously QQ JJ AA Q9 J9 do (the first three should obviously be discounted due to preflop).

This is basically just what went through my head in about the 5 seconds between the time the river card came out and I had to pick a button to push. Just that his most likely hands may check behind (the weaker ones) and the stronger but still worser hands mite raise my donk (but didnt want to give the other better hands a chance to cap which with our likely equity was probably a mistake). I just thought after the flop and turn action if he still wanted to put more bets in after i donk or cr ON THIS RIVER it probably skews his hands moreso to something he played odd preflop?

I dont think ive been in the bet call camp too often in these kinda spots (and really still am not here)since usually u gain the same ahead as if u check and lose more behind vs check call and often are more likely to get 2 bets in good by cr'ing vs bet calling, but it doesnt seem quite as clear cut here since i lose value to some hands that check behind and I can still get 2 bets in good by donking pretty often. Obviously I didnt really think the hand through at the time though.

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Heres a simple model you can construct to figure out whether you should bet/3bet the river or check/raise cap the river.

First put the villain on these 4 hands:

KT,QJ,J9s,T8s.

Then count the combinations of each type of hand to figure out how often the villain will have each hand.

It turns out the villain will have a straight 74.1% of the time. J9s for a lower boat 3.7% of the time and QJ 22.2% of the time.

Assume that if you go for a check/raise the villain will bet/call with a straight, bet/3bet with J9 allowing you to cap, and check behind with QJ. This gives you an expectation of 1.63BB's.

Now construct what you think is a realistic model for bet/3betting the river and then compare its expected value to check/raising the river and you will then have a better idea which line is best.

If you think my model is too simple or unrealistic you can always modify it yourself. My main point is figuring out whether you should check/raise or bet/3bet is not that hard. All you need is a pencil and a piece of paper.