folding an overpair for one bet on the flop

[amulet]

if it is 3 bet or capped back to him post flop he should often fold.

however, he is getting the correct price for 1 bet.

your lead was good, but checking and hoping the button leads and facing the field with 2 bets also works. if the button had more money, i would consider leading the flop, then if he reraised i might just call, hoping that the button led so i could protect my hand by facing the field with 2 big bets.

[amulet]

let's say button 3 bets with AK, JJ, QQ, KK, AA,TT, maybe AQs and 99 but i will leave them off. you cap with AA, AKs, KK, QQ, although you also may cap with a few more i'll leave them off too.

there are 16 AK possibilities, 6 AA, 6 KK, 1 QQ, 6 JJ, 6 TT. that is 12 hands he is behind, 1 tie, 30 hands that he is ahead of. given the action (and the players you describe) the probability of his being beat might be a little higher, and there are other opponents left to beat so he clearly is not a favorite to have the best hand vs 4 opponents by the river, however his equity in the pot cannot justify folding here. does he win 20%+? 15%? whatever the number is it is clear that he should not fold. never mind that he is getting the correct price to peel, the odds that his hand is best vs the pot size make his fold bad poker.

[amulet]

obviously the greater chance one of you has any of the above hands, the less likely the others have it. still from the big blinds point of view their are 47 unseen cards and his pot equity is far greater then his pot odds.