hand vs Jonathan Little Wpt FT Bubble

[Bakes]

no its not the cash game mentality, i would not bet it either. make the semibluffs wait till the turn where they have less equity.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
no its not the cash game mentality, i would not bet it either. make the semibluffs wait till the turn where they have less equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think checking is correct in 100% of poker games.

as played, though, I think you have to fold. the problem here is that even the hands he is defending from the draw all beat us.

[Todd Terry]

Just as this board is very dangerous to us, it's very dangerous to Jon unless he's caught a big piece of it. The c-bet Zugwat made is +cEV unless Jon's jamming here with over 64.5% of his preflop calling range, which is totally impossible. I'd be surprised if it's over 10%.

Are there other lines here that are more +cEV? I doubt it, but if they exist, this is an end of the tournament spot where cEV and $EV diverge. The c-bet is an absolutely riskless, significantly +cEV play. Playing this marginal hand against someone who has you outchipped 4:1 to showdown where 1/2 the deck is going to make your hand look very weak is very dangerous, and I just wouldn't do it. Additionally, checking behind on the flop with marginal to good hands heads up is a metagame mistake against a good player IMO.

[TWCReborn]

Like Todd Terry said, the best you can hope for is probably a flush draw (unless you're pretty sure he is bluffing and not semi-bluffing--which in this case might be impossibly hard to do). You could be looking at a set, a made flush, low-to-top pair and a king-high or ace-high flush draw, two overcards and a flush draw (small favorite), a straight and a flush draw (less likely because if he hits a random club, all he has is a jack or queen high flush draw), or an overpair with or without the flush draw. There is also a possibility that he is exploiting your smaller stack size by representing the above hands on a stone-cold bluff, but this is going to be improbable enough that folding will almost always be the better play here.

A lot of good tournament players will put a smaller stack all in with a flush draw if they put that player on top pair, and almost certainly with two overcards and a high flush draw. They don't want to gamble with 9-15 outters but they know that you want to gamble less than they do given that for you, it's for your tournament life. They also know that in the unlikelihood that you do call them, that they will still have a good shot at knocking you out and taking your entire stack. And in the case that they lose, they will still have a ton of chips. Even if you put him on exactly 2 little clubs, you will be 9 outs to a knock out short of the money. The best chip-ev play (calling against a 9 outter) is not the best tournament equity play as any MTT or SNG player will tell you.

Thus I agree with the cash game player-- I wouldn't bet the flop (which gives away information, that you are value betting a pair). In this tournament setting, even more than in a cash game setting, you're too vulnerable as a shorter stack to a flush draw all-in (because of the pressure of busting). I would check the flop and overbet the turn, enough to give him doubts as to if you have the flush or not, but at the same time protecting your top pair on the turn from a flush draw. The downside is that if a club hits on the turn, your hand is probably worthless against aggressive players who would bluff or bet the nut flush the same way.

[Unphased]

If you are folding to a c/r then check behind, because he certainly doing this a large percentage of the time with the majority of hands he is defending. As played, fold, you're flipping at best.

[Todd Terry]

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If you are folding to a c/r then check behind, because he certainly doing this a large percentage of the time with the majority of hands he is defending. As played, fold, you're flipping at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you care to give us a range of hands he's defending with and a range he's jamming with and show how he's jamming over 50% of his defending range here on this board? There's no way that's correct.

[WarDekar]

Are you serious Todd? He's jamming like.... almost all of his range that continues

[Todd Terry]

[ QUOTE ]
Are you serious Todd? He's jamming like.... almost all of his range that continues

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with that, maybe I misunderstood the other post. I thought he was saying that he's jamming with most of his preflop calling range, which is what I'm disagreeing with. I think, of the hands he's continuing after the flop with, he raising or jamming with 100%.

Edit: I took "defending" to mean calling out of the blind, rather than continuing on with the hand, which I think is what he meant, but only he can tell us.

[g0lfa]

how are you playing JcTd?

[alifeLesson]

definitely fold as played