Pot control or protection? Discuss this texture

[TheDoubleA]

Oh I also want to add, you should not be looking at his stats really at all. I dont like this part here:
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Villain is running 17/7/oo over a very small sample. So as a default I assume that he is nittish and won't call light.

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Why put him on any kind of style when its over a very small sample?

You know what they say about assuming right? Assuming makes an ASS out of U and ME.

[Genz]

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Oh I also want to add, you should not be looking at his stats really at all. I dont like this part here:
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Villain is running 17/7/oo over a very small sample. So as a default I assume that he is nittish and won't call light.

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Why put him on any kind of style when its over a very small sample?

You know what they say about assuming right? Assuming makes an ASS out of U and ME.

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LOL. Nice line. But the thing is that the sample size doesn't matter in this case. I'd like to discuss how to play these spots against nits or tags where it's a little difficult to chose between protection, value and pot control.

[Genz]

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I hate a check here for the exact reason you stated in the OP. "Many broadways have a draw" There is no way I let AQ draw to there straight for free. Also, if a person has AK here, you should be getting as much money in here as possible. Sure, you could be CR'd, and then you would have a fine idea of where you stand: beat. I think that checking here might keep the pot small, but I also think that it can lose the pot for you plenty of times.


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The straight draw is only a longshot with 4 outs. Does this make protection so important that I want to play a big pot on this board?
Consider! It's a 3bet pot, i.e. villain has less than 2 pot sized bets left. So when I bet the pot here and he pushes, I'll be getting better than 2:1. Do I want to be in that position?

As I said, I suspect villain to be nitty, so I think that he won't go all the way with AK. So when I can only win maybe a 3/4 pot or full pot more from him, why shouldn't I try to get closer to showdown?

When I have his range crushed, why do I want to take the pot down? As I said, draws are more or less longshots. So why shouldn't I try to induce a bet by a second best hand?

[monkover]

well genz as i stated in my post above it´s close and it depends if you want to play itsafe or not. it´s both +ev and the difference imo is very marginal.

[TheDoubleA]

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I hate a check here for the exact reason you stated in the OP. "Many broadways have a draw" There is no way I let AQ draw to there straight for free. Also, if a person has AK here, you should be getting as much money in here as possible. Sure, you could be CR'd, and then you would have a fine idea of where you stand: beat. I think that checking here might keep the pot small, but I also think that it can lose the pot for you plenty of times.


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The straight draw is only a longshot with 4 outs. Does this make protection so important that I want to play a big pot on this board?
Consider! It's a 3bet pot, i.e. villain has less than 2 pot sized bets left. So when I bet the pot here and he pushes, I'll be getting better than 2:1. Do I want to be in that position?

As I said, I suspect villain to be nitty, so I think that he won't go all the way with AK. So when I can only win maybe a 3/4 pot or full pot more from him, why shouldn't I try to get closer to showdown?

When I have his range crushed, why do I want to take the pot down? As I said, draws are more or less longshots. So why shouldn't I try to induce a bet by a second best hand?

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Well then I think the question should be this:
Should I check here to induce a bluff, or cbet and try to build the pot now?

How about this; you check behind. Turn comes a 10, Q, or 8, and villian pushes on you with AK. Or turn comes Q and villian pushes on you with 88.

Now what?

You just are opening this pot up to be taken away from you when in all likelyhood you have the best hand. I hate a check.

[danny8]

how many hands is the sample? if it really is tiny, like 10-20 then i dont think you can assume hes tight, basically a complete unknown.. if its 35+ even though obv the samples still tiny assuming hes somewhat tight seems reasonable.

first off i'd raise a little more pf, a possible tight player opeend UTG, its likely the only place you're going to get value from him so make it a bit larger ~$4

against a very tight range of AK, JJ+ you're a 60/40 favourite

what hands does a tight player call/shove over a cbet: AK, AA, KK, JJ

you're 50/50 vs that range, so betting and getting ai is never a mistake.

the only downside to betting is possibly folding out QQ and other crap he might have called pf with. downside to checking is letting QQ hit his 6outer. either option seems fine, i'd just mix it up but on the whole im betting

if his range is wider, say: AcAd,KK-TT,AQs+,KQs,AQo+ then betting becomes better than checking since theres more hands you beat and a couple GS's he might make a mistake by calling or shoving.

basically default is to cbet, but once you get a better idea of the range hes calling 3bets with then cehcking can be better. either way you should mix it up a little from time to time

[Smilin']

Disclaimer: You're a much better player than I am.

That said, are you sure you want to avoid a big pot here? First off, your read seems weak, so basing your play too much on it doesn't sound solid. Secondly, if Villain has you beat and you check one street, he'll probably use the other two streets to get ai or close to it. So (usually) the only way you avoid playing a big pot if you're beat is to fold at some point. If you fold to his first bet after checking the flop, I think you get bet off the best hand often. If you call one bet but fold to a push, you'll be folding getting 2:1 odds, and I'm not sure your read is solid enough to make that +EV.

IMO, this is a spot where you'll be unhappy to get all in but you should still be willing to do it (because the alternative lines are worse). So I see 3 possible routes:

1) Bet flop and commit the rest of your chips on a future round no matter what.

2) Check flop and bet turn, bet river no matter what comes (unless Villain bets or raises, in which case you call).

3) Check flop and get it all in when the turn card is safe, check/folding if it's dangerous.

Given the (weak) read on Villain, I think I kind of like #3, but I'm not too sure on that. I just don't like folding without a bad turn card, given pot and stack sizes.

[Genz]

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Disclaimer: You're a much better player than I am.

That said, are you sure you want to avoid a big pot here? First off, your read seems weak, so basing your play too much on it doesn't sound solid. Secondly, if Villain has you beat and you check one street, he'll probably use the other two streets to get ai or close to it. So (usually) the only way you avoid playing a big pot if you're beat is to fold at some point. If you fold to his first bet after checking the flop, I think you get bet off the best hand often. If you call one bet but fold to a push, you'll be folding getting 2:1 odds, and I'm not sure your read is solid enough to make that +EV.

IMO, this is a spot where you'll be unhappy to get all in but you should still be willing to do it (because the alternative lines are worse). So I see 3 possible routes:

1) Bet flop and commit the rest of your chips on a future round no matter what.

2) Check flop and bet turn, bet river no matter what comes (unless Villain bets or raises, in which case you call).

3) Check flop and get it all in when the turn card is safe, check/folding if it's dangerous.

Given the (weak) read on Villain, I think I kind of like #3, but I'm not too sure on that. I just don't like folding without a bad turn card, given pot and stack sizes.

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Don't jump to conclusions because I have more posts than you [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I like what you wrote a lot. Sums up the problems pretty nicely. From my starting point, I favor a line like #3 myself, while I'd be hoping that I might bet the turn for a free SD. When I pet in position on a safe turn and villain calls, I don't have to bet the river if he checks to me.

[Smilin']

The more I think about this, the more I like check flop, commit on a safe turn. Reasons:

1) If you check flop and a scare card comes, the chances that you were beat already on flop + chance you were outdrawn + Reverse Implied Odds if you are still ahead make it a fold. A solid fold, I think.

2) Suppose you bet flop and are called, then a scare card comes on the turn. That puts you in a crappy spot. I guess I fold if Villain donks the turn all in (despite pot odds), knowing a bluff is possible but unlikely. If Villain checks turn and you check behind, I have no idea what to do if he pushes river--calling and folding both suck.

[Unknown Soldier]

you don't want to be controlling the pot here, you want to be building a big one. You arent folding anywhere