JTo I flop top pair+gutshot and I dont know what the correct play is

[fishyak]

So many ways to lose, so few ways to win (outright). Your only truly clean outs are the tens and even the tens aren't the nuts. And how much fun would it be if someone, say the 2nd limper, 3 bets this thing back to you? Fold top pair, hating every second of it.

Good (aka tough decision) hand for posting.

[Scarmiglio]

Tough decision, but I call and reevalute on the turn. A read would be helpful here. Some players will raise with as little as an 8 in this spot. Smart players would raise a FD with overs here hoping to fold your hand. FWIW, I don't think folding is very wrong either.

[Bob T.]

I wish I knew more about the players. But I guess I will after this hand, or they will know more about me.

Because the board is so coordinated, you could be ahead, to way ahead here, even with this action.

I'm torn between a call, and a threebet.

[Hyperrrprank]

Whew, this is apparently a tougher spot than I think even the OP anticipated. Lots of comments from good people on both sides of the street.

The more I read people's responses the more I think that this is something that needs to be evaluated based on the profile of the raiser, your image, and the texture of the table.

[KitCloudkicker]

I guess I wasnt specific enough on my reads.

Heres what i knew at the time:

1) no players at the table were lags by any stretch. if they bet or raised this flop they had either a decent/good draw or top pair.
2) they played a wide range of hands preflop.
3) no one was limping in with premium hands.

Thats all I had to go on at the time.

[fishyak]

It's rare for me to go up against the likes of James and BBB, but I will point out the distinct LACK of any analysis posited by those who WISH to proceed with this hand.

Why is this hand worth a cold call? Is position enough? Want to try and run something with a 3 bet? This is one of those tough hands where top pair may not be enough at the flop. For those that want to continue in this hand, I would like to know why.

[Scarmiglio]

I want to continue because I have top pair and a solid draw. My hand could be good right now. This is a rough stove putting flop bettor and raiser on the same range of hands, but you get the idea:

Board: Tc 9c 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.687% 31.49% 03.19% 17462776 1771016.33 { JsTd }
Hand 1: 32.657% 28.76% 03.89% 15948399 2159513.83 { JJ-77, ATs-A8s, KTs-K8s, Q8s+, J8s+, T2s+, 92s+, 86s+, ATo-A9o, KTo-K9o, Q9o+, J8o+, T7o+, 97o+, 82o+ }
Hand 2: 32.657% 28.76% 03.89% 15948399 2159513.83 { JJ-77, ATs-A8s, KTs-K8s, Q8s+, J8s+, T2s+, 92s+, 86s+, ATo-A9o, KTo-K9o, Q9o+, J8o+, T7o+, 97o+, 82o+ }

At least with these ranges our hand is slightly ahead.

[Scarmiglio]

Here it is putting the raiser on a tighter hand selection - we still have equity to continue:

Board: Tc 9c 7h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.762% 21.99% 03.77% 5797929 995210.67 { JsTd }
Hand 1: 29.909% 26.67% 03.24% 7032494 854167.17 { JJ-77, ATs-A8s, KTs-K8s, Q8s+, J8s+, T2s+, 92s+, 86s+, ATo-A9o, KTo-K9o, Q9o+, J8o+, T7o+, 97o+, 82o+ }
Hand 2: 44.328% 39.71% 04.61% 10471835 1216867.17 { JJ-77, ATs, A8s, KTs, K8s, QTs+, Q8s, JTs, J8s, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, ATo, KTo, QTo+, JTo, J8o, T7o+, 97o+ }

[Sushiglutton]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I wasnt specific enough on my reads.

Heres what i knew at the time:

1) no players at the table were lags by any stretch. if they bet or raised this flop they had either a decent/good draw or top pair.
2) they played a wide range of hands preflop.
3) no one was limping in with premium hands.

Thats all I had to go on at the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I fold. You don't beat mny TP hands even if opps are loose pf. Your outs are very tainted. Someone may hit it again. getting 5:1 pot odds, I think a fold is pretty clear.

[Hyperrrprank]

I'm thinking of continuing only under certain circumstances. First, I need to know that the flop bettor and raiser could be doing so with a draw or some kind or a made hand weaker than mine a reasonable percentage of the time (as low as 25% is probably still good enough). Second, I need to feel confident that if I decide to continue I can use my position to buy outs from the callers (folding another J would be critical). Third, I need to have a plan for different action on the turn before calling or raising the flop.

The more I consider the hand, the more I'm inclined to believe we're behind with a bettor and a raiser, however the small chance we're ahead and the relatively clean outs to a straight (losing only to QJ) seem enough to justify protecting my hand IF (and ONLY IF) the players in question are capable of pushing draws here.

OP says they probably aren't so in this case I'm folding.

In the situation with aggressive players who might be pushing us, the pot is getting big on the flop, especially if we consider we're getting at least one caller after the raise. Taking a stab to take this down is worth even if we don't make it most of the time.

Honestly considering this I think the only time I continue is when I'm confident that yes, people could bet and raise draws on this flop, but I am also certain that they will ease off to a reasonable show of strength. In that case I'm 3-betting the flop or calling and raising the turn, planning on folding in either case if I'm bet into on the next street or if I club falls.