The Coming Recession . . . - Page 2

goodsamaritan · #11 08-05-2007, 03:10 AM

If you're so smart, why aren't you rich? Do you not like money? I mean, if you are one of the enlightened few who understand business cycles, shouldn't you have made a killing by now shorting the market at just the right time?

Borodog · #12 08-05-2007, 03:15 AM

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If you're so smart, why aren't you rich? Do you not like money? I mean, if you are one of the enlightened few who understand business cycles, shouldn't you have made a killing by now shorting the market at just the right time?

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Alas, you can't. Not sure if you're being facetious, but this is actually a really good question. The simple answer is that it is impossible to tell local maxima from global maxima.

PLOlover · #13 08-05-2007, 03:35 AM

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If you're so smart, why aren't you rich? Do you not like money? I mean, if you are one of the enlightened few who understand business cycles, shouldn't you have made a killing by now shorting the market at just the right time?

[/ QUOTE ]

It was total common knowledge in 2000-2001 that gold and especially silver were totally undervalued. of course doubling your money in 5 years isn't that great, although you could've done better in silver.
I think the main limiting factor is simply lack of capital. I mean most people turn 18 or whatever and are flat broke and have to scramble just to support themselves.

goodsamaritan · #14 08-05-2007, 03:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If you're so smart, why aren't you rich? Do you not like money? I mean, if you are one of the enlightened few who understand business cycles, shouldn't you have made a killing by now shorting the market at just the right time?

[/ QUOTE ]

It was total common knowledge in 2000-2001 that gold and especially silver were totally undervalued. of course doubling your money in 5 years isn't that great, although you could've done better in silver.
I think the main limiting factor is simply lack of capital. I mean most people turn 18 or whatever and are flat broke and have to scramble just to support themselves.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lack of capital? There are rich people fighting each other to put money into 2/20 hedge funds. There is plenty of capital out there. If the phenomena that Borodog describes were actually as predictable as he says they are, he should be a billionaire by now.

Borodog · #15 08-05-2007, 04:12 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If you're so smart, why aren't you rich? Do you not like money? I mean, if you are one of the enlightened few who understand business cycles, shouldn't you have made a killing by now shorting the market at just the right time?

[/ QUOTE ]

It was total common knowledge in 2000-2001 that gold and especially silver were totally undervalued. of course doubling your money in 5 years isn't that great, although you could've done better in silver.
I think the main limiting factor is simply lack of capital. I mean most people turn 18 or whatever and are flat broke and have to scramble just to support themselves.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lack of capital? There are rich people fighting each other to put money into 2/20 hedge funds. There is plenty of capital out there. If the phenomena that Borodog describes were actually as predictable as he says they are, he should be a billionaire by now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you not see the difference in predicting that it is inevitable that a hurricane will occur and not being able to predict exactly when a hurricane will occur?

Not to mention the fact that even if you could exactly time recessions, how would one become a "billionaire" off of them? The markets have only grown by a factor of a few hundred in a hundred years. Understanding how recessions work doesn't help you predict individual stocks.

PLOlover · #16 08-05-2007, 04:58 AM

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Lack of capital? There are rich people fighting each other to put money into 2/20 hedge funds. There is plenty of capital out there. If the phenomena that Borodog describes were actually as predictable as he says they are, he should be a billionaire by now.

[/ QUOTE ]
oh there were/are a lot of people who bought gold/silver and/or arbitraged it, I'm just saying why borodog for example didn't do it even if he had knowledge of it.

ConstantineX · #17 08-05-2007, 08:00 AM

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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If you're so smart, why aren't you rich? Do you not like money? I mean, if you are one of the enlightened few who understand business cycles, shouldn't you have made a killing by now shorting the market at just the right time?

[/ QUOTE ]

It was total common knowledge in 2000-2001 that gold and especially silver were totally undervalued. of course doubling your money in 5 years isn't that great, although you could've done better in silver.
I think the main limiting factor is simply lack of capital. I mean most people turn 18 or whatever and are flat broke and have to scramble just to support themselves.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lack of capital? There are rich people fighting each other to put money into 2/20 hedge funds. There is plenty of capital out there. If the phenomena that Borodog describes were actually as predictable as he says they are, he should be a billionaire by now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you not see the difference in predicting that it is inevitable that a hurricane will occur and not being able to predict exactly when a hurricane will occur?

Not to mention the fact that even if you could exactly time recessions, how would one become a "billionaire" off of them? The markets have only grown by a factor of a few hundred in a hundred years. Understanding how recessions work doesn't help you predict individual stocks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Options, Borodog. There's a bunch of leverage that can be obtained from the investment brokers and implicit leverage in many financial derivatives. Even being able to systematically predict a a 1% rise or fall in markets would make you extremely wealthy extremely fast.

adios · #18 08-05-2007, 08:19 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If you're so smart, why aren't you rich? Do you not like money? I mean, if you are one of the enlightened few who understand business cycles, shouldn't you have made a killing by now shorting the market at just the right time?

[/ QUOTE ]

It was total common knowledge in 2000-2001 that gold and especially silver were totally undervalued. of course doubling your money in 5 years isn't that great, although you could've done better in silver.
I think the main limiting factor is simply lack of capital. I mean most people turn 18 or whatever and are flat broke and have to scramble just to support themselves.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lack of capital? There are rich people fighting each other to put money into 2/20 hedge funds. There is plenty of capital out there. If the phenomena that Borodog describes were actually as predictable as he says they are, he should be a billionaire by now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you not see the difference in predicting that it is inevitable that a hurricane will occur and not being able to predict exactly when a hurricane will occur?

Not to mention the fact that even if you could exactly time recessions, how would one become a "billionaire" off of them? The markets have only grown by a factor of a few hundred in a hundred years. Understanding how recessions work doesn't help you predict individual stocks.

[/ QUOTE ]

So in your view picking individual stocks is the only way to beat inflation when you understand you recessions work? No predictive value in understanding how recessions work? I don't agree at all.

adios · #19 08-05-2007, 08:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If you're so smart, why aren't you rich? Do you not like money? I mean, if you are one of the enlightened few who understand business cycles, shouldn't you have made a killing by now shorting the market at just the right time?

[/ QUOTE ]

It was total common knowledge in 2000-2001 that gold and especially silver were totally undervalued. of course doubling your money in 5 years isn't that great, although you could've done better in silver.
I think the main limiting factor is simply lack of capital. I mean most people turn 18 or whatever and are flat broke and have to scramble just to support themselves.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lack of capital? There are rich people fighting each other to put money into 2/20 hedge funds. There is plenty of capital out there. If the phenomena that Borodog describes were actually as predictable as he says they are, he should be a billionaire by now.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you not see the difference in predicting that it is inevitable that a hurricane will occur and not being able to predict exactly when a hurricane will occur?

Not to mention the fact that even if you could exactly time recessions, how would one become a "billionaire" off of them? The markets have only grown by a factor of a few hundred in a hundred years. Understanding how recessions work doesn't help you predict individual stocks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Options, Borodog. There's a bunch of leverage that can be obtained from the investment brokers and implicit leverage in many financial derivatives. Even being able to systematically predict a a 1% rise or fall in markets would make you extremely wealthy extremely fast.

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

adios · #20 08-05-2007, 08:33 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If you're so smart, why aren't you rich? Do you not like money? I mean, if you are one of the enlightened few who understand business cycles, shouldn't you have made a killing by now shorting the market at just the right time?

[/ QUOTE ]

It was total common knowledge in 2000-2001 that gold and especially silver were totally undervalued. of course doubling your money in 5 years isn't that great, although you could've done better in silver.
I think the main limiting factor is simply lack of capital. I mean most people turn 18 or whatever and are flat broke and have to scramble just to support themselves.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lack of capital? There are rich people fighting each other to put money into 2/20 hedge funds. There is plenty of capital out there. If the phenomena that Borodog describes were actually as predictable as he says they are, he should be a billionaire by now.

[/ QUOTE ]

From what I've gathered the AC position is that the markets are rigged to bilk you out of your money. You're right though, if the business cycle is "rigged" by the government and you know how it's rigged you can make a ton of money off of that knowledge. You don't have to pick bottoms and tops either to make a lot of money. The fact is that many savvy people who understand the dynamics of the business cycle do make fortunes.