LOTR: Return of the King (GAME THREAD)

[Nicholasp27]

herbie, ur argument is moot

if any wolf noticed skoob was sam/frodo, the wolves woulda eaten skoob that night...

i get no benefit from killing aaron instead of skoob that night if i'm wolf...

u get no benefit from killing aaron instead of skoob that night if u are wolf...

one of us is a wolf, thus if neither of us benefit (and none of the other wolves benefit either), then skoob should be dead n2 unless no wolves noticed him

thus no wolves noticed skoob was sam/frodo n2 or he woulda died that night...no matter who the wolves were

[FCBLComish]

[ QUOTE ]
My lunch break is basically over now but I was around at nightfall that night. Nich wants you all to believe that I somehow missed the fact that GT1T clearing Skoob there meant that Skoob is either Frodo or Sam. GT1T couldn't clear anybody other than Frodo or Sam because it would put the real Frodo and Sam in greater danger of being lynched. He also risks clearing a wolf (potentially even Sauron) which would be disastrous for his chances of winning.

So either
1. Nich FPSed as a wolf to attempt to clear himself some or
2. I missed something blatantly obvious and made a very bad decision about who to kill that night when I was around and sober (if I had been drunk this argument would admittedly carry more weight)

[/ QUOTE ]

OK all, accuse me of blinders here. This particular argument from Herbie sounds very similar to his "Q" argument from the riddle that eventually got me lynched. He claims it is solid, but it is full of holes.

I think Nich is Aragorn.

Lynch Herbie

[HerbieGRD]

[ QUOTE ]
thus, wolves did not notice

[/ QUOTE ]
You have convinced me of this much but the obvious conclusion from this is that since I did notice and tried to move my vote off him at the last minute and you weren't even around at nightfall you are the wolf and I am not. I did notice because it was painfully freaking obvious therefore I can't be a wolf. DUCY?

[Stephen H]

My internet is going kind of slow so I somewhat skimmed through fmxda,mark, and jack. I did read a fair bit of their posts but not all of them.
Thoughts on each one:

mark - His reasoning has been very convoluted all game; it's like he's been working hard to come to the conclusions he wants to come to rather than simply make sense of what he sees. He's also been very wrong this whole time.
Another thing I noticed was that eskimo had an early "stop voting mark - everyone voting mark is a wolf" post, but then mark dropped off his villager list. I wonder if that defense of mark isn't what kept eskimo alive.
Verdict: Wolfy

fmxda - would have looked better with rich as a wolf - instead, looks kinda bad after the luckay/rich situation. A lot of posts, though, and seems honestly to be looking for wolves. Overall he seems to be genuinely looking for wolves, finding suspects, evaluating new information, etc.
Verdict: Somewhat villagery

jeremy - He has only a few posts, and most of them are pretty bad. Most of his posts cast slight suspicion around - fmxda, nez, mark, fortfun - but nothing seems to stick for more than a day or even less. He doesn't have any suspects he's been consistent on and his suspicions move around like water. I don't like it.
Verdict: Wolfy

bram - Picks on clown's post - but then votes chuckles?!? That was kind of an odd post. Pretty much all game he has only been picking on clown and chuck. I think he was hoping for a day to get a villager lynched under clown, and it happened. Clown was a "safe" wolf to go after, wolf-on-wolf, with the -2 vote power, and bram hasn't done anything but go after clown and chuck.
Verdict: Wolfy

jack - Started by picking out people who agree with him as villagers and people who he disagrees with as wolves. While this is often wrong, it's dangerous to be blatent about it like that as a wolf. Has a lot of very reasonable, thought out posts that make good, logical accusations. Plus, Nez has him solidly on his villager list.
Verdict: Villagery

I think if we go Mark/Jeremy/Bram we can then settle the nich/herbie situation and close this out. And that's the order I want to do it in.

Mark_K

[Jack Bando]

Stephen, we can screw up the Herbie/Nich situation, but if we do, we have to do it sooner than later.

Herbie

[Mark_K]

Nich again, I'm agreeing with your posts... There's just one little detail that you have wrong...

I agree with the: Herbie/Books/Chuck line
I know I'm not the last wolf, I think it's Stephen but the village can afford a couple miss lynches here.

vote herbieGRD

[Stephen H]

[ QUOTE ]
Stephen, we can screw up the Herbie/Nich situation, but if we do, we have to do it sooner than later.

Herbie

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's backwards. I think we learn more about the Herbie/Nich situation by trying to lynch wolves and watching who they vote for.
The more they talk and vote, the more we have to go on to decide correctly.

[HerbieGRD]

[ QUOTE ]
[This particular argument from Herbie sounds very similar to his "Q" argument from the riddle that eventually got me lynched.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok to address this generally - the reason the argument probably seems similar to you is that it is in that I am trying to find evidence to support a particular conclusion. The difference is that this time I am looking for evidence to support a conclusion that I know to be correct. Instead of focusing on the argument I made (which is pretty apparently wrong - probably because it was based on me guessing what the wolves were doing and thinking when I am not a wolf) how about addressing the argument that NICH JUST MADE FOR ME.

Which is that the wolves didn't realize that Skoob was Frodo/Sam and therefore took another shot at Aaron.

Nich just totally confirmed that he is the wolf and I am the villager and you people want to lynch me anyways. I guess there is nothing left but to lol at you guys after the game is over. Just promise me that you won't let FMX and Chuckles get away after you lynch me and everything will be fine (I think)

[Mark_K]

[ QUOTE ]

I think if we go Mark/Jeremy/Bram we can then settle the nich/herbie situation and close this out. And that's the order I want to do it in.

Mark_K

[/ QUOTE ]

If the village goes this lynch path: Mark(V), Jeremy (V), TheBram (Prob V) the game is over. NOT a good move.

I'm OK with the village "wasting" a lynch on me because I was so wrong on Nich/Zurvan but I think the village really needs to listen to Nich if/when he is revealed as the real aragorn.

My biggest reason to think Nich is Aragorn is his above arguement. If Nich was a fake and Gandalf lives all finger point to Nich as fake. The wolves wouldn't risk this and would instead just roleblock Gandalf and search for Frodo/Sam.

[HerbieGRD]

[ QUOTE ]
My biggest reason to think Nich is Aragorn is his above arguement. If Nich was a fake and Gandalf lives all finger point to Nich as fake. The wolves wouldn't risk this and would instead just roleblock Gandalf and search for Frodo/Sam.

[/ QUOTE ]
WHAT ABOUT SKOOB - THEY HAD ONE OF FRODO/SAM AND SHOULD HAVE KILLED HIM THAT NIGHT - THE ONLY REASON THEY DIDN'T IS BECAUSE APPARENTLY THEY DIDN'T KNOW (which is lol in and of itself)