LOTR: Return of the King (GAME THREAD)

[chuckleslovakian]

I'm also going to have to go back and reread Brams wolf game. If there was one thing Durron could be counted on it was reading Bram so I didn't have to.

[HerbieGRD]

[ QUOTE ]
Please tell me why today is the correct day. Neither of have any powers of use one way or another. It isn't must lynch. The way I look at it the longer we keep you two alive, the better chance the village has of making the right decision.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think this is true for a couple of reasons. First off we are at 9/4 today with one of the wolves being essentially powerless to affect the results. If we do it now the remaining wolves have to make a tough choice - throw their support behind the wolf and risk looking bad or throw their partner under the bus. Even if the wolves decide to try to save their wolf partner fully half the village would have to make the wrong choice in order for the real Aragorn to get lynched. If we keep waiting and let it get to must lynch at 3-2 or 4-3 then every villager has to make the right choice in order to lynch the wolf. Also I believe that the village is going down the wrong path based on faulty assumptions about my role and Nich's role - I believe if you guys knew that Nich was faking it would change your perspective on who the remaining wolves are. All in all I think deciding between us today will give us the best chances of actually lynching a wolf today and will give us good information for the rest of the game.

[Nicholasp27]

herbie must die, obviously

herbie/mark/chuck (and books, of course) is the winning line...this game is already locked

[chuckleslovakian]

[ QUOTE ]
herbie must die, obviously

herbie/mark/chuck (and books, of course) is the winning line...this game is already locked

[/ QUOTE ]
I was leaning towards Herbie being the fake before this. Sigh...

[sighing]

[ 0 ] chuckleslovakian voted for Stephen H
[ 0 ] FCBLComish
[ 0 ] fmxda
[ 0 ] FortFun
[ 2 ] HerbieGRD
[ 0 ] Jack Bando
[ 0 ] Jeremy517
[ 0 ] Mark_K
[ 0 ] Nez477 voted for HerbieGRD
[ 0 ] Nicholasp27 voted for HerbieGRD
[ 1 ] Stephen H
[ 0 ] Thebram
[ 0 ] wdcbooks

[HerbieGRD]

[ QUOTE ]
*** MOD ANNOUNCEMENT ***

DustinG replaces KM, who bows out regretfully

*** MOD ANNOUNCEMENT ***

[ 0 ] aaronk56 voted for Nicholasp27
[ 0 ] chuckleslovakian
[ 0 ] clowntable
[ 0 ] dmk voted for Nicholasp27
[ 0 ] DustinG
[ 0 ] ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S
[ 0 ] FCBLComish
[ 0 ] fmxda
[ 0 ] FortFun voted for Nicholasp27
[ 0 ] GetThere1Time voted for HerbieGRD
[ 2 ] HerbieGRD voted for Jack Bando
[ 1 ] Jack Bando
[ 0 ] Jeremy517
[ 1 ] LuckayLuck voted for Skoob
[ 0 ] Mark_K voted for Nicholasp27
[ 0 ] Nez477
[ 5 ] Nicholasp27 voted for HerbieGRD
[ 0 ] RichC.
[ 1 ] Skoob voted for Nicholasp27
[ 0 ] Stephen H
[ 0 ] Thebram voted for LuckayLuck
[ 0 ] TruFloridaGator
[ 0 ] VoraciousReader
[ 0 ] wdcbooks

[/ QUOTE ]
So lunchbreak time - this was the count immediately before Nich claimed Aragorn - there were 5 votes on Nich.
DMK - villager
Skoob - Sam
AaronK - Gandalf
FortFun - villager
MarkK - unknown (but probable villager IMO)

This wasn't a wolf driven bandwagon - this was a villager driven bandwagon. Also quite a few of the Nich voters were VERY dead set on getting Nich lynched that day and thus were unlikely to change unless Nich roleclaimed something. With Gandalf already outed the only thing that made any sense for him to claim was Aragorn. Notice how afterwards several of the people who were on Nich were so convinced that he was evil that they continued pushing for his lynch even after he claimed Aragorn - including Sam (more on this later).

[Thebram]

My initial read was the chuckles was a wolf, that hasnt changed.
And I dont see how we can ignore posts like this from the seer

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
About all I can get from Skoobs posts is that they peeked Dustin and Luckay as wolves ah good times. Actually, maybe dmk was peeked as villager.

[/ QUOTE ]

and..... chuckles is a wolf

[/ QUOTE ]

If chuckles is a villager, then lolseer for these posts.
If chuckles chuckles is a wolf and we dont lynch him, then LOLVILLAGE for ignoring seer statements like this.

(notice that caps means it's a bigger mistake to clear a wolf than to lynch a villager)

chuckles for now

also, I'm still undecided on how to resolve the nich/herbie situation, but I do have one that I believe more over the other.

[chuckleslovakian]

[ QUOTE ]
My initial read was the chuckles was a wolf, that hasnt changed.
And I dont see how we can ignore posts like this from the seer

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
About all I can get from Skoobs posts is that they peeked Dustin and Luckay as wolves ah good times. Actually, maybe dmk was peeked as villager.

[/ QUOTE ]

and..... chuckles is a wolf

[/ QUOTE ]

If chuckles is a villager, then lolseer for these posts.
If chuckles chuckles is a wolf and we dont lynch him, then LOLVILLAGE for ignoring seer statements like this.

(notice that caps means it's a bigger mistake to clear a wolf than to lynch a villager)

chuckles for now

also, I'm still undecided on how to resolve the nich/herbie situation, but I do have one that I believe more over the other.

[/ QUOTE ]
lol?

[Thebram]

[ QUOTE ]
lol?

[/ QUOTE ]

it's indeed lol someone...

but still no more lol than lynching zurvan
I'd also be up for lynching any of those brainiacs
because their either wolves, or villagers I dont trust to make a reasonable decision anyway

[HerbieGRD]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys are absurd

<u>PRO TIP:</u> DONT VOTE SKOOB

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
and when I do hang tonight, promise me you will lynch Luckay (the false Gollum roleclaimer), followed immediately by Dustin.
You'll know why.

[/ QUOTE ]
The first post here is just before night on day 2 from GT1T - the second is from Skoob (Sam). By GT1T coming out he is basically announcing that Skoob is either Frodo or Sam. When Skoob decides to let himself get lynched instead of claiming it is a very strong hint that he is in fact Frodo and not Sam because claiming either Frodo or Sam is a very good play for Sam but not as good a play for Frodo because if Frodo is nightkilled they lose that nights peek and if Frodo is perpetually roleblocked then village gets no peeks from the ringbearer at all. Unless the evils had gotten Skoob's name from Sauron already there would be every reason for them to believe that Skoob was in fact Frodo here.

I could do the math but rough back of the envelope type math says that they evils had about a 15% chance of having gotten Skoob's name as "not Frodo" already. This means one of two things

1. Evils knew Skoob was Sam (15% chance)
2. Evils knew Skoob was either Frodo or Sam with a weight towards Skoob being Frodo (85% chance)