***** Clash of the Titans, Week 9: NE @ Ind*****

[kyro]

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kyro,
You predict a 10 point victory for the Pats, yet dude is out of his mind to think they win by 14?


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I missed this the first time. The guy is giving 1:1 odds on Pats -14. That's stupid. For several reasons, the biggest being he could get 1:1 odds on Pats giving far fewer points.

Also, what part about my post where I said I didn't think Pats -10 was a fair line did you not understand. Do you understand sports betting at all? If I think a team should be favored by 1 point, I'm not going to come up with a score where the favored team wins by 1 just to make the numbers fit.

[bottomset]

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DVOA to this point has them as the #1 and #2 teams since the system was created

also since 17% DVOA = 3points, it seems there is a ton of value(provided the system doesn't "break" at the extremes) in Indy+4.5 at home

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I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the Pats are more than a TD better than the 49ers on a neutral field.

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I'm going to go out on a limb and say your basic math skills are pretty weak

70.6- (-50.0) = 120.6/17 *3 = ~21points

[kyro]

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DVOA to this point has them as the #1 and #2 teams since the system was created

also since 17% DVOA = 3points, it seems there is a ton of value(provided the system doesn't "break" at the extremes) in Indy+4.5 at home

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I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the Pats are more than a TD better than the 49ers on a neutral field.

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I'm going to go out on a limb and say your basic math skills are pretty weak

70.6- (-50.0) = 120.6/17 *3 = ~21points



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lolz

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say you're right.

[leehrat]

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I think Indy has a decent chance actually. NE looks scary good but I also think we haven't paid enough attention to Indy and maybe don't realize how good they are, they have dominated much better teams and have won some tough road games too. I am not necessarily sticking my neck out yet, I am just saying that this isn't as clear cut of a NE win as some make it out to be.

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I agree with this, wouldn't suprise me in the least to see the Colts win

[Golden_Rhino]

I'm hoping for a tie. I'd like to see the weird tie breaking procedure at the end of the season, and I wanna know what the old Dolphins would do if both teams go 15-0-1.

[Austiger]

Probably mentioned already, but I just heard on the radio that Houston and surrounding areas will be getting the Texans/Raiders game instead. That's gotta suck.

[kidcolin]

My area is getting that game, too, but luckily I'll be back in Boston next weekend. Thank god.

[NT!]

i haven't seen this mentioned a lot - maybe i missed it - but one of the things i think really favors the pats is how good they are at keeping defenses on the field. i think there's a reason they were so focused on dominating time of possession vs. the skins.

when the colts are scoring they seem to move in big chunks. the pats' running game - and the fact that this is one of the colts' weaknesses - is a big asset. the short passing game functions in a similar way.

if manning and the colts are able to put together some long, time-consuming drives, they will greatly improve their chances.

[NT!]

following this, if i'm the colts, i am jumping routes and playing aggressively early. bring the pressure and force them to make a big play to score. maybe they burn you, but maybe you get a turnover and go up two scores. i just don't think you want to try to out-game-manage the pats, they are going to come in with a really good idea of what they want to do.

[lastchance]

Peyton Manning is one of the best in the league on 3rd down, and Joseph Addai and Kenton Keith are both top 10 in success rate.

Colts are better than they were last year at picking up 1sts.

On defense, I don't know what the Colts should do.