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#181
04-11-2007, 02:50 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
[ QUOTE ]
Post-Oak, You mean the SSB where he calculates the value of middlez in baseball assuming perfect information? Maybe you need to work on you statistical analysis. [/ QUOTE ] He not only talks about middles, he also talks about calculating the edge for over/under win totals. You need to work on you reading comprehension, or at least reread that chapter. My statistical analysis in this thread, however, is right in line with what appears in Sharp Sports Betting. If you actually do own the book, try looking at Table 11 and reading the relevant chapter. Once again, to believe that a team has a 3% chance to win 92 games or more, you would have to estimate their winning percentage at 49.1%. This translates to expecting a 79.5 win season for the TB DRays to expect they will win 92+ games 3% of the time. Now I realize that perfect information is not available, but no one who knows what they are talking about is thinking about the DRays as a probable 80 win team. 
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#183
04-11-2007, 03:07 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
[ QUOTE ]
PostOak, Yes, and he uses an SD that is very poor in those numbers. [/ QUOTE ] Show me your "numbers". Show me your formula. I like how you guys just throw around "variance", "standard deviation", etc. and think that you have made an actual point. You think I don't know that you can't produce "numbers" nor a formula? It's funny to see you questioning Stanford Wong's work, and all because he's not involved in the "in crowd" groupthink of the 2+2 Sport Betting Forum.
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#184
04-11-2007, 03:16 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
PostOak,
Umm... Why don't you go back through last season with all major projections and see how they differ from the actual RS/RA and then from the actual W/L column. Those are pretty factual numbers it seems. Or have you found a way to figure the exact RS/RA for each team?
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#185
04-11-2007, 03:27 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
[ QUOTE ]
In fact, the free projection systems he links in this thread bear this out. I'm not sure where the idea that TB is much better than 1% to win the AL East is coming from, because no one other than crockpot has tried to give any reasoning. [/ QUOTE ] Before the season, ~3.5% would have been a very conservative projection.
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#186
04-11-2007, 03:35 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
[ QUOTE ]
PostOak, Umm... Why don't you go back through last season with all major projections and see how they differ from the actual RS/RA and then from the actual W/L column. Those are pretty factual numbers it seems. Or have you found a way to figure the exact RS/RA for each team? [/ QUOTE ] Why don't you go back and check the price of tea in China last March? Why is it that you think that the existance of variance means that TB has a 3% chance of winning 92+ games this year? If you are of the opinion that these projection systems can't possibly give anything close to an accurate forecast, then DON'T EVER BET WIN TOTALS FUTURES. Alternatively, just bet on every single team that has an OVER of below 81. Or if you do believe that these projections can be reasonably accurate, then why do you keep harping on the variance? A team can win LESS games than they are projected also. The existance of variance in projections does nothing to prove your point. A team can win more games than it's RS/RA stats would suggest. They could also win less games than RS/RA would suggest. Also, it's not 100% accurate that RS/RA will show a team's TRUE winrate. When are you going to show me your "numbers"? How about your formula which takes a SD into account?
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#187
04-11-2007, 03:39 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
[ QUOTE ]
Before the season, ~3.5% would have been a very conservative projection. [/ QUOTE ] All I want is for you to show me where you come up with this number. That's all I'm asking.
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#188
04-11-2007, 03:41 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Before the season, ~3.5% would have been a very conservative projection. [/ QUOTE ] All I want is for you to show me where you come up with this number. That's all I'm asking. [/ QUOTE ] Why doesn't he let you [censored] his wife next?
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#189
04-11-2007, 03:46 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Before the season, ~3.5% would have been a very conservative projection. [/ QUOTE ] All I want is for you to show me where you come up with this number. That's all I'm asking. [/ QUOTE ] Why doesn't he let you [censored] his wife next? [/ QUOTE ] It's really not too much to ask for. People who say someone is wrong without providing any information aren't helping anyone. It's understandable that some people don't want to share where they got their numbers, which is fine. In that case, they shouldn't bother posting, period. Just telling someone he's wrong does nothing to help anyone.
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#190
04-11-2007, 03:46 PM
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Re: crockpot\'s baseball picks 4/1-4/7 (incl futures)
[ QUOTE ]
Why doesn't he let you [censored] his wife next? [/ QUOTE ] So you're gonna assume that he has some super secret system which makes the Las Vegas projections look like a complete and total joke? If he doesn't supply an explanation, given the fact that he is just some random poster on an internet message board, it would be much more reasonable to assume that he pulled that number out of thin air. Yeah, you seem like a real sharp.
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