STTF SNG->cash thread

[BHokie1]

Let's see if this one gets a response.

Another AQ cash hand.

Villain is about 40/12 over 50 hands, I know I showed down a hand that I c-bet with air against him (and then hit the turn).

My guess on the c/r on the flop is he's either trying to take the lead in the hand, has a really strong draw, or hit it hard.

Comments on any/all streets Appreciated.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($61.15)
CO ($55.10)
Button ($97.75)
SB ($61.90)
BB ($52.95)
UTG ($51.95)
UTG+1 ($67.20)
MP1 ($8.40)
MP2 ($53.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.5</font>, CO calls $1.50, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls $1.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($5) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2.5</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to $5</font>, Hero calls $2.50.

Turn: ($15) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $10</font>, SB calls $10.

River: ($35) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks.

[ManChild]

this looks he has TP to me
id bet this river

also, raise more PF (3.5-4x) and bet more on the flop

[AMT]

if youre gonna bet this flop, bet more, you can check as well. id probably value bet the river as well as played.

[rvg72]

Already been said but yeah, bet more preflop and more on the flop. I'd be hesitant to bet the river though against most players.

rvg

[cha59]

[ QUOTE ]
Already been said but yeah, bet more preflop and more on the flop. I'd be hesitant to bet the river though against most players.

rvg

[/ QUOTE ]

Most players check a made flush after playing the hand like that? c'mon, bet the river [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[rvg72]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Already been said but yeah, bet more preflop and more on the flop. I'd be hesitant to bet the river though against most players.

rvg

[/ QUOTE ]

Most players check a made flush after playing the hand like that? c'mon, bet the river [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at it this way, here is a reasonable breakdown of hands for the villain to a $25 river bet:

10% house and you call reraise
20% flush and you call reraise
10% Q and he calls your $25 bet
30% King and calls your $25 bet
30% Fold

If this is reasonable then checking has an overall EV of +$10.5 and betting $25 and calling a push is +$6.36. Even if he only has a better hand 22% of the time it is still more EV to check.

Thoughts?

(obviously a bunch of assumptions made and whatever but result is fairly accurate)

rvg

[wiggs73]

rvg,

that's a pretty easy river bet dude. first off, he shouldn't have a boat with the line he took. flush is pretty reasonable i guess, but i think you're severly discounting how often he has a king.

also don't call a river CR, i really doubt many people at NL50 are sophisticated enough to do that as a bluff.

[rvg72]

Well, I think you have to call the check raise since you are getting something like 5 or 6 to 1 at that point and the guy could do this with a worse Q or maybe AK or maybe a complete bluff. Often enough that you can call anyways.

A river bet probably is better depending on how you tweak the numbers but even at 25% you are behind, 50% ahead and he calls and 25% fold it is basically even.

Anyways, it is reasonably close and I would still check [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

rvg

[wiggs73]

yeah true about the odds thing, i didn't really look at the stacks, just replied quickly but yeah odds would be too good not to call.

anyway i still bet and i don't think its close at all [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[cakewalk]

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $254.60
Hero: $242.70
Button: $199.80
SB: $464.60
BB: $204.75

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $8</font>, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($17, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $12</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $38</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($93, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $70</font>, Hero

vill is 19/17

nothin doin lately, im not running very lag atm.