i'm embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol

[m bozeman]

I also placed a 3 person hedge bet with Ace, Bucky, or Mandisa to go home tonight. My biggest win will be if Ace goes.

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm open to making a small wager with anyone that Bucky or Ace not only do not go home, but are not even B3, if I get +odds, while I'm willing to give odds on Mandisa being B3.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYI from Pinny if you're not watching:

Will Bucky Covington be eliminated on April 5/06? [/b]
703 Yes +264
704 No -310

Will Ace Young be eliminated on April 5th, 2006? [/b]
705 Yes +297
706 No -343

Will Elliot Yamin be eliminated on April 5th,2006? [/b]
707 Yes +368
708 No -434

Will Mandisa be eliminated on April 5th, 2006? [/b]
709 Yes +423
710 No -499

[llabb]

[ QUOTE ]
I also placed a 3 person hedge bet with Ace, Bucky, or Mandisa to go home tonight. My biggest win will be if Ace goes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ace and Bucky are not going home, maybe not even bottom 3 IMO. My suggested wagers above.

[ QUOTE ]
FYI from Pinny if you're not watching:

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, I have a lot of money on the elimination wagers already. I'm interested in a Bottom 3 wager, which is not available on the books right now. Anyone have any interest in this?

I'll give +200 (I lay -200) on Mandisa being in the bottom 3, and take +200 (you lay -200) on Bucky or Ace not being in the bottom 3.

[smbruin22]

i notice the tradesports.com elimination markets have moved sharply in the same direction as dialidol.com has suggested.

basically away from ace and bucky and towards mandisa and elliott (all 4 are very roughly equal - OK very, very roughly)....

did that happen after the performances? or due to dialidol? i thought dialidol has a pretty mixed record.

[llabb]

Pre-show, the odds were very short on Bucky and Ace, and long on everyone else. Right after the show, the odds on everyone else (other than Chris, Taylor, and Kellie) came down sharply, with Bucky and Ace rising some.

This was because Ace was one of the best of the night, Bucky got the pimp last spot and will get votes on a country night, and everyone else was pretty blah.

Since then, money seems to have mainly come back in on Bucky and Ace on Pinny, and all over the place on TradeSports. Different markets have people that follow different indicators.

Some people like the AOL poll for eliminations, saying that the B3 are usually towards the bottom of it. However, Katharine has been at the top, even though she was B3 previously, so it's up to you how much you value it. Some people like the DI results, although last week the main predictions page showed 7 people predicted as likely to be voted off, with Lisa as the 5th highest, so again, it's up to you how much you value it. Some people read the MSNBC polls, which have results closer to the WSEX and TradeSports market values. Then there's various fan polls by all manner of other sites. That's what makes this interesting, a bunch of people all with different opinions, and the chance for us to make money wagering on it if you're right.

[smbruin22]

llabb,

thanks for the added color.... it is alot of fun. and the voting dynamics are interesting... something i may have underestimated is that bucky's votes may go to kellie when he's voted off, although those two and chris are from north carolina, so not exactly sure. and they may go to another guy.



a couple of questions:

does simon actually think alot of bucky's performances are o.k.? or does he just think it's pointless to criticize him.

is the whole thing really based on fan voting? i am somewhat suspicious of some stuff i've seen (and i'm not a big conspiracy buff).. and would they really allow some horrible contestant like kevin to be the "american idol"? or would there some voting problem that they'd only disclose once it became public... just food for thought: if enron and arguably the 2000 presidential election (i actually prefer bush to gore) can be tainted, why not A.I.?

sorry for the rant!!

[llabb]

Last night they were pimping Bucky for some reason (last spot on country night), so I would have guessed Simon would take it easy on him. Perhaps they want to draw more country crowds, by having both a likeable country guy and girl, when they go on tour? Don't really know.

From everything I've seen, I don't think it's rigged. I think the producers heavily favor certain contestants and make things easier or harder for them. Order of performance, overall pimping levels, and judges' comments can make a big difference week to week. So, my guess is that they highly influence the outcomes, but actually do go by the actual voting totals. They'd lose an enormous amount of money, if that were ever shown not to be true. From what I understand, they do not release figures, because that would spoil the suprise and interest factor, if you know that contestant A has an enormous lead the whole season long. Like for Clay and Reuben, there would have been little reason to watch that season until the finale.

[Performify]

Results:

bottom three were Mandisa, Elliot and Paris.

Paris was sat first, but not with any comment about Paris / Elliot being lower / higher in votes.

Mandisa was eliminated as predicted.

"season" record: 3-1 on elimination picks. +2.4381 units

[m bozeman]

Yeah, a little shocking to see that bottom 3.

As far as your elimination picks go, is it "fair" that you are picking 3 out of 9 contestanst to go, and saying that is a "win". I understand you won by hedging, as did I. It just seems that if you are going to pick 3 each week you should never lose.

That being said, the next 2 to go have to be Bucky and Ace, in either order. But, with the way the voting has gone, who the hell knows.

[SumZero]

It is always weird for me to be posting after the eliminations have happened (but I don't know who's been eliminated - I'm on the West Coast and stay unspoilt) but my opinions on the singing is quite different than performity's.

[ QUOTE ]
Taylor - 01 - terrible. Absolutely terrible. Demonstrated, as predicted, just how limited he is in his genre range. Tremendous downgrade in value.

Mandisa - 02 - tremendous wardrobe mistake again. Vocals mediocre on a terrible song. Slight downgrade in value.

Elliott - 03 - good vocals but not great. Decent song choice but EY didn't deliver as strong as I expected. Strong ending. Clear best so far.

Paris - 04 - appearance much improved. Power ballad not really country. Hate the song. Vocals meh, didn't overpower the song as I expected. No real change.

Ace - 05 - good song choice. Might be enough to stay around a week. Solid first half, tanked some in the second. False ending popular but only ok.

Kellie - 06 - yet again made mistake of opening her mouth for something besides (1) singing (2) sucking. Should have been her week to shine but only ok. Didn't have the range for the low parts of the song - surprised to see her rock out during country week. Just weird choice. Not as good as expected given the subject matter.

Chris - 07 - meh choice, meh vocals opening. Middle chorus to bridge vocals hit stride but then dropped back too low. Meh overall. No real change in value, but didn't drop with the difficult genre limitation as some feared so holding same value is a good thing.

Kat - 08 - couldn't be happier with my position on her to win it all. Clear best performance of the night. Good sex appeal.

Bucky - 09 - simply stunning. Terrible song choice. The warning from Kenny on enunciation really really REALLY is going to hurt, because Kenny delivers that message the Bucky steps out and you understand maybe three words out of the first three verses. Decent vocals except for the poor enunciation and a couple rough patches.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't see 01 or 02 so they may have been bad. I'd say:

Elliott did well. His stock should rise.

Paris did poorly. I think she'll pick up a bunch of the Lisa voting, but I wouldn't be surprised if she is bottom 3 or even eliminated.

Ace did better than I thought he'd do. I thought he'd suffer in this format, but he did well. I don't think he'll go home.

Kellie did well. She's not going home after that excellent performance. And I think she's working the stupid-cute (a la Jessica Simpson) rather than the stupid-annoying angle.

Chris did well. He should be safe.

Kat did poorly. That wasn't a good performance IMO. It wouldn't surprise me to see her back in the bottom 3.

Bucky did well. I thought he did a good job on his song and I could hear his words clearly (Kat was the one with the worst enunciation IMO). I wouldn't be surprised to see Bucky in the bottom 3 based on past votes, but I don't think he should go home.

So from the 7 I saw I think Paris was worst. But I could see any of Taylor, Mandisa, Kat, Ace, or Paris go home.