Hacker Attack (All Info Game Thread - Feb 19 Start)

[kyro]

stephen

[durron597]

[0] amplify voted for BluffBlank
[0] antidan444
<font color="red"> [5] BluffBlank </font>
[0] fmxda
[0] fnord_too voted for Neil Stevens
[0] HerbieGRD voted for BluffBlank
[0] Jeremy517
[0] jjhender
[0] kbar13
[0] kyro voted for Stephen H
[0] LuckayLuck
[1] Neil Stevens voted for Stephen H
[0] Nez477 voted for wdcbooks
[0] Nicholasp27 voted for Stephen H
[4] Stephen H
[0] thebram voted for wdcbooks
[0] traz voted for BluffBlank
[0] TruFloridaGator
[0] Voj
[2] wdcbooks
[0] xoom voted for Stephen H
[0] xorbie voted for BluffBlank
[0] Zurvan voted for BluffBlank

[Stephen H]

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[ QUOTE ]
Stephen

I think you should reveal them. Remember, you can only be manipulated if the wolves correctly guess who you're peeking

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It's pretty easy for wolves to render a known good seer's future peeks worthless.

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How?

They'd have to guess which player you're going to peek.

That's not easy at all.

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Fine, if the wolves haven't thought of this, then i'm giving it to them, but whatever, I'm not going to assume retarded wolves.

Say I'm obviously an insane seer. All 6 wolves that have the ability to change peeks simply change my peek of themselves to "wolf" so they'll look just like villagers. Then every peek I get is "wolf" (except for the silencer, who is hung out to dry, but whatever) and my peeks are completely worthless as we don't know if I peeked a villager or a wolf.

[kyro]

If......

If we lynch Stephen, and he comes up good guy, and I die the following night.

nobody touches traz unless something bizarre happens, and books is next to go.

[Stephen H]

How about I just tell you I'm a good guy, and we leave traz alone for a while?

[Jeremy517]

So we have two people (kyro, xoom) who had three evil peeks and one good peek. They could be Paranoid Useless, but they could also be Paranoids who had their vote manipulated. If it was manipulation, then it was Books and Stephen who were made to get peeked as good.

[Stephen H]

Actually, this is completely retarded. It's a lot better to verify your wolf peek and then decide that traz/myself are "kyro cleared" than to kill a second of your "villager" peeks and see if they match up.
Villager&amp;wolf matching up is much more reliable than 2 villagers matching up.

[Stephen H]

I also have 3 evils peeks and 1 good peek (good peek was last night).
I'm just debating whether or not to release the last two.

[HerbieGRD]

SKIP THIS POST IF YOU DON'T CARE ABOUT THE MATH DETAILS

Ok I am just getting into the math now - lets start with this. The possibility of wolfy manipulation is being ignored for now. If you are a regular (R), insane(I), useless(U), or paranoid useless(PU) seer you have a

.5% chance of peeking 0 of your "type"
5.2% chance of peeking 1 of your "type"
22.3% chance of peeking 2 of your "type"
42.2% chance of peeking 3 of your "type"
29.8% chance of peeking 4 of your "type"

If you are regular or useless your "type" is good
If you are insane or paranoid useless your "type" is evil

Obviously if you are paranoid(P) or naive(N) you have a 100% chance of peeking 4 of your "type"

The seer distributions below are {R/I, P/N, U/PU} - the order of R/I and U/PU are not relevent

I believe that there are 4 reasonable guesses for starting seer distributions: {2/2, 3/3, 7/7} or {2/2, 4/4, 6/6} or{1/2, 4/4, 7/6} or {2/3, 4/4, 6/5}. While other combinations are possible within the rules they contain either 2 or 6 useful seers which I find unlikely.

This is all foundational stuff - I will post some analysis in a little bit

[kyro]

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How about I just tell you I'm a good guy, and we leave traz alone for a while?

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You have no idea how hard it is not to continue pushing for traz.