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View Poll Results: Pick 2 | |||
Parker @ CHI | 1 | 8.33% | |
Brown vs. DEN | 1 | 8.33% | |
Taylor @ SF | 5 | 41.67% | |
Green @ BUF | 5 | 41.67% | |
Voters: 12. You may not vote on this poll |
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#1831
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Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
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[ QUOTE ] It sort of seems like you are trying to trap him or something? Yes, that is what he is saying. [/ QUOTE ] There are a lot of people who visit this forum, but not this sb forum (or who are just not knowledgeable bettors in general) who would pronounce that they feel confident in a bet if they think they're still favored, even if they're laying 10:1. That's what I was trying to ascertain. [/ QUOTE ] But he isn't "still favored" he is still more than a 10:1 favorite. Maybe I am also dumb, but I would still feel very comfortable with my bet at this point (or the point at which you initially asked) and would not be wishing I could back out. At the very least its really close. I understand the win expectancy figures are for league average teams, and that Boston has an above-average offense, but CLE has an above-average bullpen as well. I really don't think there has been a time since Jurollo offered the bet that he was +EV, although perhaps right after the third home run it was pretty close. |
#1832
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Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
who pitches the 8th for the indians?
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#1833
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Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
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okay guys, red sox have 2 innings to catch the indians. what are the odds they do it assuming indians don't score in the 8th? go indians! [/ QUOTE ] expectancy: 0.976 http://winexp.walkoffbalk.com/expectancy...mp;scorediff=-4 |
#1834
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Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
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who pitches the 8th for the indians? [/ QUOTE ] They showed betancourt warming up. I assume it would be him if the score holds up. craig |
#1835
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Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
this whole bet isnt about +EV, I know i am taking an +EV bet probably long term, but I have a feeling that the Sox will pull this [censored] out tonight
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#1836
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Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
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this whole bet isnt about +EV, I know i am taking an +EV bet probably long term, but I have a feeling that the Sox will pull this [censored] out tonight [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, I figured that and I wasn't making fun of you for making a bad bet. I am just a little confused as to what legend is getting at. |
#1837
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Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
fwiw, i wouldn't put 10:1 at this 4-7 point, but at 0-7 with the indians pen, i feel/felt comfortable...just a little uncomfy at the moment [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#1838
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Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] It sort of seems like you are trying to trap him or something? Yes, that is what he is saying. [/ QUOTE ] There are a lot of people who visit this forum, but not this sb forum (or who are just not knowledgeable bettors in general) who would pronounce that they feel confident in a bet if they think they're still favored, even if they're laying 10:1. That's what I was trying to ascertain. [/ QUOTE ] But he isn't "still favored" he is still more than a 10:1 favorite. Maybe I am also dumb, but I would still feel very comfortable with my bet at this point (or the point at which you initially asked) and would not be wishing I could back out. At the very least its really close. I understand the win expectancy figures are for league average teams, and that Boston has an above-average offense, but CLE has an above-average bullpen as well. I really don't think there has been a time since Jurollo offered the bet that he was +EV, although perhaps right after the third home run it was pretty close. [/ QUOTE ] ok, maybe i understand what he was asking now. you also need to consider that indians are also batting, and they are not league average hitters either. |
#1839
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Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
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[ QUOTE ] who pitches the 8th for the indians? [/ QUOTE ] They showed betancourt warming up. I assume it would be him if the score holds up. craig [/ QUOTE ] prolly betancourt-->joe borowski to finish it out for the indians. |
#1840
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Re: ALCS - Indians vs Red Sox
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[ QUOTE ] okay guys, red sox have 2 innings to catch the indians. what are the odds they do it assuming indians don't score in the 8th? go indians! [/ QUOTE ] expectancy: 0.976 =0&scorediff=-4]http://winexp.walkoffbalk.com/expectancy...mp;scorediff=-4 [/ QUOTE ] 97.6% ???!! ship it! |
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