Hacker Attack (All Info Game Thread - Feb 19 Start)

[Zurvan]

I strongly suspect we have more than the standard 2 useful seers in this game.

So, while normally a seer would want to wait until day 9 or so, and have 5 or 6 living peeks, that's not as vital in this game. I would be shocked if we have less than 4 useful seers.

[Nez477]

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Oh wait, i thought about peeking DMK but didn't. I pay goot attention.

I have Xoom, Amp and Antidan as villagers.

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wtf

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No wtf needed. Before trying to read this ginormous thread yesterday to get caught up I wanted to peek DMK. After reread, I went with Amplify instead. Then I read the thread this morning before looking at my PM and saw that DMK was dead and forgot I went with someone else.

Btw, Books is fine based on how things are looking today. After rereading I liked Kyro and Neil best based on posting style and the like. Obviously all of this peek talk will change things.

[Zurvan]

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zurvan,

what i have a problem with is stuff like "we KNOW blah is blah". if every useful seer (real seer or paranoid) just gets ONE peek messed up, we lose another day of lynching. if every paranoid/naive seer gets just ONE peek messed up, we lose another day of lynching.

obviously we are going to have to trust the peeks, because without that we have no real weapon (and are sucking enough as is). just that throwing ppl out offhand seems really bad.

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I see the problem, I just don't see a solution.

We either trust the information we have, or we don't.

[xorbie]

like as an example. i would love to lynch luckay... i think he's been way off normal luckay this game. but if he comes up, amp sure looks like whatever the inverted seer is called, and i get lynched next. so wtf.

[xorbie]

oh and bluff. just for the record, i was right about clown. wrong about dmk though.

[Zurvan]

Ah, now I see what you mean. I think we were talking about different things.

How many times does somebody have to be right before we believe them? Let's ignore the manipulation, plz.

Somebody better than I at math look at this for us. Let's assume Luckay is evil & amp is good, and none of amp's peeks were manipulated. What are the odds amp is a paranoid useless seer, and got 3 of 4 peeks right?

[HerbieGRD]

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Somebody better than I at math look at this for us. Let's assume Luckay is evil & amp is good, and none of amp's peeks were manipulated. What are the odds amp is a paranoid useless seer, and got 3 of 4 peeks right?

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I am going to do some math later but it depends on which day he made those peeks - the earlier the correct peeks the better chance of the rest of the peeks being correct. The only downside is that each day the odds of having your peeks manipulated is a little bit higher as well so that balances things a bit.

[Zurvan]

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Somebody better than I at math look at this for us. Let's assume Luckay is evil & amp is good, and none of amp's peeks were manipulated. What are the odds amp is a paranoid useless seer, and got 3 of 4 peeks right?

[/ QUOTE ]
I am going to do some math later but it depends on which day he made those peeks - the earlier the correct peeks the better chance of the rest of the peeks being correct. The only downside is that each day the odds of having your peeks manipulated is a little bit higher as well so that balances things a bit.

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I have the order of his peeks on the spreadsheet.

[xorbie]

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Ah, now I see what you mean. I think we were talking about different things.

How many times does somebody have to be right before we believe them? Let's ignore the manipulation, plz.

Somebody better than I at math look at this for us. Let's assume Luckay is evil & amp is good, and none of amp's peeks were manipulated. What are the odds amp is a paranoid useless seer, and got 3 of 4 peeks right?

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the odds of getting two villas right at first is 3/4^4, roughly speaking (given ratio wolves:villagers is roughly 1:3 for the first couple nights).

then the odds of getting a wolf right and a villager wrong is 1/3*2/3 * 1/3*1/3 * 2.

total it up, it's about 2%.

[xorbie]

but that's only for doing it in the order it happen roughly, i think if you just total it up it's maybe 5% to get 3/4 right including 1 wolf correct.