i'm embarrased to post this: setting up an arbitrage on American Idol

[Performify]

Pinny appears to have taken the lines off entirely post-show (and maybe preshow as well, as I wasn't able to get on earlier to check lines). AI isn't even listed as an option to wager (no section for it at all). So i'm making a bottomt three and a vote-off prediction sans Pinny line, and will revisit tomorrow to make a final recommendation.

Predicted bottom three: Ace, Bucky, and Mandisa. Ace will be voted off, although its close between Ace and Bucky in my opinion. Paris is my fourth, and I think its close between Paris, Mandisa, and Bucky for who's fighting to stay out of the bottom three.

Will wait to see a line to make an actual betting recommendation.

If you're interested, my raw notes from the show:



Taylor - 01 - terrible. Absolutely terrible. Demonstrated, as predicted, just how limited he is in his genre range. Tremendous downgrade in value.

Mandisa - 02 - tremendous wardrobe mistake again. Vocals mediocre on a terrible song. Slight downgrade in value.

Elliott - 03 - good vocals but not great. Decent song choice but EY didn't deliver as strong as I expected. Strong ending. Clear best so far.

Paris - 04 - appearance much improved. Power ballad not really country. Hate the song. Vocals meh, didn't overpower the song as I expected. No real change.

Ace - 05 - good song choice. Might be enough to stay around a week. Solid first half, tanked some in the second. False ending popular but only ok.

Kellie - 06 - yet again made mistake of opening her mouth for something besides (1) singing (2) sucking. Should have been her week to shine but only ok. Didn't have the range for the low parts of the song - surprised to see her rock out during country week. Just weird choice. Not as good as expected given the subject matter.

Chris - 07 - meh choice, meh vocals opening. Middle chorus to bridge vocals hit stride but then dropped back too low. Meh overall. No real change in value, but didn't drop with the difficult genre limitation as some feared so holding same value is a good thing.

Kat - 08 - couldn't be happier with my position on her to win it all. Clear best performance of the night. Good sex appeal.

Bucky - 09 - simply stunning. Terrible song choice. The warning from Kenny on enunciation really really REALLY is going to hurt, because Kenny delivers that message the Bucky steps out and you understand maybe three words out of the first three verses. Decent vocals except for the poor enunciation and a couple rough patches.

[llabb]

Performify and I have agreed on another set of props, for $100 each. This is getting pretty fun (and +EV in both our minds, I guess; time will tell who is right).

I am taking:
1) Katharine NOT to make final 2. I get +150. I am putting up $100 to win $150.
2) Taylor to MAKE final 3. I am laying -250. I am putting up $250 to win $100.

So Perf is taking the other side which is:
1) Katharine to MAKE final 2. He lays -150. He is putting up $150 to win $100
2) Taylor NOT to make final 3. He is getting +250. He is putting up $100 to win $250.

[jmillerdls]

I'm in agreement with most of this. Is it just me, or have the last 2 weeks been pretty much a disaster from just about everyone? I mean, you could say a couple of them did decent...but a majority if these people are horrific, and I'd never want to hear them sing the same song again. They need to get it together, or this will definately be a popularity contest where how good you sing will be completely unimportant...not that its too far from that to begin with.

[Angelus]

Performity, just curious, but are you a country fan? The only reason I ask is because we have very different opinions tonight...but that's okay.

I love Country. So I was pretty excited about tonight.

Anyway, the highlight of the night for me was Katharine calling out Simon. She hit the nail on the head when she told him he doesn't like country music. He told them they picked horrible songs...but they picked some of the best Country songs available IMO. "Fancy" and "How Do I Live" are two of my all-time favorites. Then you had Garth Brooks, two from Keith Urban and a Gary Allan. Even Shania was attempted....

But all that aside, Kellie's performance was easily the best of the night. To take on a Reba song like "Fancy" and do as well as she did, I was amazed. Katharine's was kind of meh...although she looked hot.

Ace will not be eliminated. He did a very good version of a very popular Keith Urban song. That'll be enough to last another week. Bucky went last and wasn't terrible...so that might be enough for him. I think Mandisa is very much at risk...but I haven't yet decided if the price at pinny (+386) is worth a shot.

Taylor was the worst. But we all know he's going nowhere.

[smbruin22]

i agree that idol has been a train-wreck the last couple of weeks.

even though i have really disliked alot of her stuff before, i thought paris was excellent tonight.

i thought katherine made an excellent point to simon, and i don't know if people noticed, but he agreed.

ace or bucky tonight - hard to say... one thing about ace is he has been steadfast about doing the songs he wants to do, and i respect that.

does anyone think kenny rogers has had plastic surgery? that was just fascinating.

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
Performify and I have agreed on another set of props, for $100 each. This is getting pretty fun (and +EV in both our minds, I guess; time will tell who is right).

I am taking:
1) Katharine NOT to make final 2. I get +150. I am putting up $100 to win $150.
2) Taylor to MAKE final 3. I am laying -250. I am putting up $250 to win $100.

So Perf is taking the other side which is:
1) Katharine to MAKE final 2. He lays -150. He is putting up $150 to win $100
2) Taylor NOT to make final 3. He is getting +250. He is putting up $100 to win $250.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Performify]

Lines available for week four once i hit Pinny this morning:

801 Bucky Covington +230
802 Ace Young +297
803 Paris Bennett +883
804 Elliot Yamin +340
805 Mandisa +408

I think this week's going to be tough. I think Mandisa at +408 is probably the single best value and if you wanted to vote just one line that's where i'd recommend.

The official pick of the week is to arbitrage the following three:

Selection 1 : American Idol
Who will be eliminated on April 5th, 2006?

801) Bucky Covington +230
Risking 100.00 to Win 230.00 USD ---

802) Ace Young +297
Risking 85.19 to Win 253.00 USD ---

805) Mandisa +408
Risking 67.65 to Win 276.00 USD

With a scenario of;

Bucky eliminiated: +$77.16
Ace eliminiated: +$85.35
Mandisa eliminated: +$90.81

Based on Elliot's low busy percentages (courtesy dialidol and my own calling) there's a strong possiblity he's going to be bottom three this week, but I don't think he'll be the one kicked so I'm not including him in the arbitrage.

Edit: forgot to post updated record.

"season" record: 2-1 on eliminations, +1.53 units

For record keeping, I will count as a win if this arbitrage hits and a loss if it does not (i.e. Elliot gets kicked).

Please note on the (in my opinion very outside chance) this arbitrage does not hit, a loss will result in a 2.52 unit loss, so if you're not comfortable adjust your units down (just cut the units in half above: .5 unit on Bucky, .426 units on Ace, .338 units on Mandisa for a total of 1.264 units at risk, etc)

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
Performity, just curious, but are you a country fan? The only reason I ask is because we have very different opinions tonight...but that's okay.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would not generally describe myself as a big country fan. In my digital music collection (616 artists, 1068 albums), i have 19 country artists represented. Standouts there would include George Straight, Hank Williams, Dixie Chicks, Garth Brooks, Rascal Flats, Alison Krauss, Johnny Cash, and some alt-country like Neko Case and Sun Volt.

I didn't disagree that Kellie did a good job, it just wasn't as good as I expected. I had exceedingly high expectations for her and for Bucky, and if they didn't finish the night #1 and #2 then I think its a letdown for them. I think Bucky had a big letdown (he wasn't spectacular, even if he was better than his average performance) and Kellie had a small letdown but still did pretty well.

[jmillerdls]

[ QUOTE ]
does anyone think kenny rogers has had plastic surgery? that was just fascinating.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is absolutely no doubt about this...

[llabb]

[ QUOTE ]
I think Mandisa at +408 is probably the single best value and if you wanted to vote just one line that's where i'd recommend.

The official pick of the week is to arbitrage the following three:
Bucky Covington
Ace Young
Mandisa

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree on Mandisa, and was fortunate enough to have a tiny amount of money on her pre-show at +2500! I've added to that position, and have money on the longshots, so will win money if Mandisa, Paris, or Elliot go home.

I think Bucky and Ace may have a chance at avoiding bottom 3 this week, due to fanbase support and decent performances. Ace's was actually one of the top ones of the night IMO.

I'm open to making a small wager with anyone that Bucky or Ace not only do not go home, but are not even B3, if I get +odds, while I'm willing to give odds on Mandisa being B3.