***** Clash of the Titans, Week 9: NE @ Ind*****

[sublime]

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3 points = 17% in DVOA.

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well thats good to know (im serious), but it still means the point spread is like >> than DVOA due simply to injury factor.

anyways, enough of that. this game will be great and i cant friggin wait.

[kyro]

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Kyro,
According to DVOA TB> Jax and SD, just saying.

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I didn't say otherwise. From a DVOA perspective, they've been a very good team, but I think it was suggested that a lot of comes from the Bucs being a relatively low variance team (few TOs). I mean, I know DVOA is smarter than me, but I don't think the Bucs are the 5th best team in the league.

[Supwithbates]

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The most interesting x-factor that no one is talking about is Indianapolis' capability of making second half adjustments.

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No one is talking about it because no one cares about half time adjustments because they don't really exist.

Manning and the offense will spend 100+ hours gameplanning this week. Like they're going to make huge, sweeping changes in 15 minutes during halftime? Like you can't make those adjustments on the fly when your defense is on the field?

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The Patriots started blowing the Colts out in the AFC Championship game last year but the Colts made good adjustments and came back...

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Nice sample size.

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THat's not my sample size it's just a highly relevant example (given that the teams are the same) that was on national TV and is therefore memorable to the highest % of people. If I really thought it was necessary to justify my statement, I could find more examples, but if you know much about the Colts you know that they do well in the second half.

[kyro]

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The most interesting x-factor that no one is talking about is Indianapolis' capability of making second half adjustments.

[/ QUOTE ]

No one is talking about it because no one cares about half time adjustments because they don't really exist.

Manning and the offense will spend 100+ hours gameplanning this week. Like they're going to make huge, sweeping changes in 15 minutes during halftime? Like you can't make those adjustments on the fly when your defense is on the field?

[ QUOTE ]
The Patriots started blowing the Colts out in the AFC Championship game last year but the Colts made good adjustments and came back...

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice sample size.

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THat's not my sample size it's just a highly relevant example (given that the teams are the same) that was on national TV and is therefore memorable to the highest % of people. If I really thought it was necessary to justify my statement, I could find more examples, but if you know much about the Colts you know that they do well in the second half.

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I know this is going to sound like sour grapes, but a large part of the Colts comeback had more to do with the fact that the Pats defense had absolutely no energy left, partly due to the brutal game they had played in SD the week before. No excuse for the offense which crumbled, but many defenders were getting dehydrated and cramping up terribly.

[ProfessorBen]

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Most of you don't think the Colts are heavy dogs, but I think they are, especially with all the momentum the Pats have. I pick the Pats to win by at least 2 TD's.

also, while this game is important, they're going to meet again in the playoffs where the implications are much more important so unless either team blows the other one out (I can see the Pats blowing the Colts out but not vice versa) it really won't mean too much

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how much will you bet NE-14

please let me know, we can get an escrow setup too

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LOL I agree. I'll even give you Pats -11.

[ProfessorBen]

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i agree that this will be one of the best games to watch this year, simply because as a pats fun it will be fun watching a "decently close game." by that i mean, the pats will only win by 2-3 touchdowns.

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You want to take Pats-11 too?

[ProfessorBen]

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Colts fans,

I am calling a truce with you mor....um, you guys for the remainder of the week. We are fans of two absolutely incredible teams, and I expect this game to be absolutely amazing. Also, I hope whoever wins Sunday's game finishes the season undefeated.

That's right, if the Colts beat the Pats Sunday, I hope they finish the regular season undefeated. It'll be all the more sweeter when we end up as SB Champions.

Pats 34
Colts 24

That's my prediction.

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This has been one of the more "reasonable" posts by a NE fan thus far. Says something about SE. LOL at Pats -14ers.

[ProfessorBen]

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LOL at all the regs bashing the poor college student for thinking NE wins by 2 TD'S or more.

Are you guys actively trying to discourage participation from newer members or what?

Like it's so ludicrous for him to say that...ffs give me a break. And it's not like he was being rude to anyone. He was just stating his opinion in a completely normal fashion.

kyro,
You predict a 10 point victory for the Pats, yet dude is out of his mind to think they win by 14?

I hope the Pats win by 30 now, and the college dude starts a new thread to call you [censored] conceded idiots out.

/rant

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Moving from 14 to 10 is significant, though I agree with your main point.

[bottomset]

DVOA to this point has them as the #1 and #2 teams since the system was created

also since 17% DVOA = 3points, it seems there is a ton of value(provided the system doesn't "break" at the extremes) in Indy+4.5 at home

[kyro]

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DVOA to this point has them as the #1 and #2 teams since the system was created

also since 17% DVOA = 3points, it seems there is a ton of value(provided the system doesn't "break" at the extremes) in Indy+4.5 at home

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I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the Pats are more than a TD better than the 49ers on a neutral field.