Derby Picks

[rush66]

Gents, fwiw. I went back and found my mistakes in math/methods and found what I believe to be the true line at around +325 (give or take) for winning the Triple Crown...making my -400 wager -EV. It seems to have leveled off at +350 at bodog so I guess that makes more sense. Had to see it for myself to believe it. If I can find a good arb Ill do that otherwise Ill just hang on to it and hope this horse loses. Though the fact that Clark and Naj arent touting this horse signiicantly in the preakness makes me feel a little better. Thanks for the help.

[Thremp]

Naj,

Yeah I was saying midpriced horses... Like the Hard Spuns of the world are typically the value plays from what I've read. Faves and huge dogs are the ones where the largest issue is. VIP has a 15% rebate... Interesting. I didn't know that. Thanks.

[Bishop22]

VIP rebate does not reduce the takeout to 2%..not even close. Rebate is on net loses. You wager $100, lose $17 on average and get $2.55 back.

[TripleH68]

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I'd love to unload on Hard Spun.

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Do you subscribe to the bounce theories?

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Depends on the race. But he looks like a nice young horse who is just getting better and better. 82-95-95-101-107. I could easily see 105+ winning the Preakness. Similar to his TG numbers of 4, 2, 2, 2, 1, -1.

I'm guessing there will be too much speed in the race, but I'm not that concerned about a major bounce. I'm more concerned with Curlin doing that. Lightly raced, thrown to the wolves, brutal trip, still ran a good race. He may need more time to recover. Who knows.

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Wanted your opinion before giving mine. I think it is likely HARD SPUN will regress off the derby, especially if he has company on the front end...but nothing drastic. CURLIN is likely a go for the Preakness and you can't like him too much. I am interested in seeing more about FLYING FIRST CLASS and C P WEST. (Remember MIDWAY ROAD passing PEACE RULES with ease coming off the turn?)

Here's a fun comment: Street Sense jockey Calvin Borel returned to Churchill on Wednesday after attending a white-tie gala at the White House, and called the colt "unbeatable." So does this mean he forgot the Bluegrass - - - or was it fixed???

[NajdorfDefense]

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I'd love to unload on Hard Spun.

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Do you subscribe to the bounce theories?

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I don't. I think they are utter BS. Look at Hard Spun's consistently higher numbers.

I think where this wacky 'theory' came from is that trainers would often train horses for the 'next race' [say the KD] and not attempt to have their horses in top form for a meaningless prep race or warmup race. There's no point peaking 3 weeks before the Derby - so 6-8 weeks out their horse would win, they'd pull back a little to rest him, have a nice race but not go all out in final prep, and then train and give 100% at the Derby.
Also, freakishly high numbers will revert to the mean, Bellamy Road's 120 Beyer case in point - he never won another stakes race, did he?

[NajdorfDefense]

Clark, I unloaded some at 5-1 on Hard Spun on Monday but he's down to 7-2 last I saw.