*Official* Israel/Lebanon thread (politics)

[iron81]

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And there is no defense that these are surgical strikes being advocated, Felix is advocating destruction of a people's way of life, the basis of their economy, and the largest environmental disaster ever witnessed, and killing anybody who gets in the way. The equivalent would be advocating the burning of America's forests and farmlands.

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I am pretty sure those that hate America would do this if they had the means.

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And that's why we call them, the bad guys.

[ACPlayer]

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Israel can't win a war with Hizbullah

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I think it will be clear by the time the dust settles, that Israel has won this war... whether it results in peace remains uncertain, but I think that it will be clear that Hezballah has lost...

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How do you define victory?

Two views that dont agree with your assessment.

Moshe Arens

Bad news good news.

From Arutz

The voices from Israel are skeptical.

Another example of using Military without clear political objectives, IMO.

OTOH, I expect Israel to announce soon that Hez is not keeping its part of the deal and start bombing the Lebanese again.

[ACPlayer]

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Rice calls Lebanese PM to warn him that if the UN Lebanon resolution is not implemented, “We will not be responsible for the consequences”

Earlier, Israeli FM Tzipi Livni put in urgent calls to the US secretary and the French foreign minister in an effort to salvage the ceasefire from Iranian-backed Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s 12th-hour retraction of his consent.

Lebanese minister Marwan Hamadi accused Hassan Nasrallah Sunday night of reneging on his pledge to abide by the UN ceasefire.

Hamadi information minister, a Druze, said Sunday night that Nasrallah had broken his word to order Hizballah fighters south of the Litani to hand in their weapons to allow Lebanese army troops to be deployed there.

Some sources are saying that Nasrallah received orders from Iran to keep fighting...

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What do you make of Israel's keenness on a cease fire and Hez's apparent reluctance?

[ACPlayer]

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Industry, Labor and Trade Minister Eli Yishai said "the agreement is with Lebanon and not with Hezbollah. I do not trust Hezbollah to abide by the resolution. It must be made clear to Hezbollah that if a single rock is hurled at Israel, we will have to turn the village from which it was hurled into a heap of rubble," he said.

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Now we're talking.... Throw a rock and have your village turned to rubble...

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I assume your remark was made in jest. Otherwise it is in horribly bad taste!

[Sniper]

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How do you define victory?

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AC... clearly there will be differences of opinion... here is Ramon's opinion...

Senior cabinet minister Haim Ramon said Monday that as a result of the war in the north, Hezbollah is a "beaten" force that is entirely changed.

The justice minister also said that the terms of the UN cease-fire could spur a fundamental change in Lebanon, and that that was the objective of the war as pursued by Israel.

"Despite whatever claims Nasrallah may make in victory speeches, Hezbollah today is an entirely different Hezbollah, he told Army radio, referring to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

"This is a beaten Hezbollah, entirely different in real terms, both on the ground and also from the international standpoint," he told Army Radio.

According to Ramon, in the UN truce terms, "We have a internationally recognized document which bears great potential to entirely change [the state of affairs that existed] prior to July 12 and that was the objective of the war.

[ACPlayer]

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How do you define victory?

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AC... clearly there will be differences of opinion... here is Ramon's opinion...

Senior cabinet minister Haim Ramon said Monday that as a result of the war in the north, Hezbollah is a "beaten" force that is entirely changed.

The justice minister also said that the terms of the UN cease-fire could spur a fundamental change in Lebanon, and that that was the objective of the war as pursued by Israel.

"Despite whatever claims Nasrallah may make in victory speeches, Hezbollah today is an entirely different Hezbollah, he told Army radio, referring to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.

"This is a beaten Hezbollah, entirely different in real terms, both on the ground and also from the international standpoint," he told Army Radio.

According to Ramon, in the UN truce terms, "We have a internationally recognized document which bears great potential to entirely change [the state of affairs that existed] prior to July 12 and that was the objective of the war.

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Forget Ramon. He is a politician and politicians spin.

How do YOU define victory?

I submit this was the problem with the war (as with the Iraq war) there is simply no definition of victory. Hez is not going away. The Lebanese people are even more anti-Israel than before and likely more pro-Hez (heck you could even have the Hez being elected into the majority in Lebanon in a couple of years -- OK the ethrnic makeup may prevent that perhaps).

If in two years there is an elected Hez govt and a elected Hamas govt next to Israel has all the fighting helped or hurt the Israeli cause?

Gotta stop leading with the missiles.

[Exsubmariner]

I'd like to say that I think Isreal lost this round. In a couple of weeks, Hezbollah's leadership is going to come out of their holes and say they won a victory.

Of particular note to me is that After 3 weeks Isreal failed to reach the same river it did in 3 days in 1972. I don't know if this is an idicator of the amount of fortification present in the south of Lebanon or if it reflects Isreal's demininshed military capacity relative to it's enemies, or if it demonstrates their restraint in the face of dense civilian population. It may be a little of everything. The net result is not a victory of Isreal.

[ACPlayer]

Para by para analysis of the resolution


Interesting line by line analysis of the ceasefire.

One para in particular:
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It is clear from all these provisions of OP 11 that something decisive must have happened between Hezbollah and the government of Lebanon in the past few days. I have no evidence of any such thing. But purely from inference, it seems to me that the two have joined forces for the following reasons: (a) Israel's ill-advised indiscriminate bombing campaign in Lebanon, reminiscent of Operation Barbarossa in World War II which turned the citizens of Russia against the German armies, has elevated Hezbollah to the heights of popularity among the Lebanese people; (b) half of the Lebanese army is composed of Shiites, who are of the same faith as Hezbollah; (c) many of the senior officers of the Lebanese army are members of Hezbollah; (d) Hezbollah is already a minor party that is officially part of the Lebanese government; (e) Hezbollah is already more powerful than the Lebanese government and its army; (f) Hezbollah is increasing its power due to training, funding, and arms shipments from Iran and Syria; (g) one may reasonably assume that many Hezbollah fighters will now enlist in the Lebanese army, thus averting "disarmament" while simply changing their uniforms.

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I think, Israel would do their chances of peaceful co-existence with Lebanon, by first declaring victory (which of course means nothing) and then helping to rebuild Lebanon by sending a couple of billion dollars of humanitarian aid. Which would clearly spell out their statements that their beef is not with the Lebanese people but with the Hezb.

Wont happen. Implacable enemies.

The quoted author's summary:
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POSTSCRIPT. Hezbollah's rockets have been a wake-up call to Israel. Or, more accurately, it is like a dream in which you dream you are waking up only to fall into a deeper nightmare. The rockets will not uninvent themselves. The UN Resolution is not going to keep them away. Israel's best defense, in my humble opinion, is to return to strict adherence to international law, to move its Wall from Palestinian property and either dismantle it or erect it on its own property, and to cease and desist from land-grabbing. For what is vital to me, a non-Jew, is Jewish morality, its teachings on justice, its immense contribution to civilization, the music of Gershwin and Weill that daily runs through my mind, and even its incomparable humor. These must survive. War is not the way.


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[Sniper]

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I'd like to say that I think Isreal lost this round. In a couple of weeks, Hezbollah's leadership is going to come out of their holes and say they won a victory.

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They are already claiming victory...

Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah declared Monday that his group had won a "strategic, historic victory" in its month-long conflict with Israel, but said he believes the Lebanese army and international troops are "incapable of protecting Lebanon."

"We are today before a strategic, historic victory, without exaggeration," Nasrallah said in a taped speech on Hezbollah's al-Manar television channel, hours after a United Nations-brokered cease-fire went into effect.

"We came out victorious in a war in which big Arab armies were defeated [before]," he said. Moments after his speech ended, celebratory gunfire erupted across the Lebanese capital.

[Sniper]

Syrian President Bashar Assad has said that the chance of achieving a lasting peace with Israel is low, adding that Syria planned to "liberate" the Golan Heights.

Assad was quoted in the Egyptian newspaper al-Osboa saying that a Syrian attack on Israel was still a possibility. "If Israel goes out on an adventure and attacks Syria, it will begin paying a very high price," he said.

Assad praised Hezbollah and other pro-Syria groups, accusing Lebanese officials opposed to Syrian influence of having "demanded to remove Syria from Lebanon in order to weaken the national forces there. What happened? Syria left and the national forces became much stronger."

Assad said Syria had an excellent relationship with Iran, "a high political momentum." He also said Syria had decided to involve itself more with Asia in the East "in order to emerge from the complex lies that tie us to the West, in which there is no alternative to the United States."