Sklansky Bucks Calculator: PokerEV

[Phil153]

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When will this work with HM?

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rvg says he's making some schema changes right now and there are also ongoing connection issues for HM users. Once things are a bit more settled I'll look at it. Main priority is getting the next update ready which everyone should like.

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I'm not sure if it's possible or not but I couldn't find a suitable filter to find $ won/lost when there was no flop. Could be interesting to even see a preflop graph along the showdown/sklansky/total graphs (?)

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Possible and coming, along with blind filters.

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i have only one pt database w/ around 23k hands. on the main screen i am only seeing 2 levels listed on the filters and these aren't the ones I need. also my player name is not listed. any ideas? i'm on vista.

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I'll have a look through the code tonight, I'm not aware of issues with listing levels/players. It does a simple database query so if the data is in there it should get retrieved.

Jackson,
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Everything else works (RealTime,Telescope,PT,PAhud) except Hold'em Manager which gives an identical error message.

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No update with this, it's a tough problem to track down. Has rvg made any progress with this?

[twilitekid]

forgot to mention it is full tilt. it seems to be showing some stuff from pokerstars where i used to play. it's the same database though. thanks.

[yeesh]

question about this program from a newbie. In terms of using this program to see if you are "running good" or "running bad," it has no way to account for cooler hands, correct? So say, one is experiencing a downswing, but rather than being sucked out on a bunch they are instead experiencing a sudden string of cooler hands. For example, if you lose with a set to a bigger set, this program would consider that a bad play on your part.

[Phil153]

No, coolers are not currently taken into account.

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For example, if you lose with a set to a bigger set, this program would consider that a bad play on your part.

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This is a common misconception. The program doesn't definitively tell you if you played good or bad. It tells you the expectation of the money that went in. This is a very useful metric, but it's no substitute for manually reviewing your play.

[mj12]

I am getting this message as well

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Phil,
Love the program, it has really helped me take a long term view on bad beats thus really improving the quality of my play after a bad beat.

Anyway, I switched to a new computer and PokerEV won't open. Nearly everything is the same. Still WindowsXP, McAfee security. The only thing new is PC Tools Spyware Doctor, which I've turned off and still get the same error.

Everything else works (RealTime,Telescope,PT,PAhud) except Hold'em Manager which gives an identical error message. Roy said one other person has had same problem, but he had no solution. I was hoping you might have some ideas.

Here's the error message I get when I try to open up PokerEV



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[jerryf1914]

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This is a common misconception. The program doesn't definitively tell you if you played good or bad. It tells you the expectation of the money that went in. This is a very useful metric, but it's no substitute for manually reviewing your play.

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wtf is the point of knowing the equity we had in a cooler?? we obviously aren't putting our money in if we know we're getting set over setted.

[YoureToast]

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This is a common misconception. The program doesn't definitively tell you if you played good or bad. It tells you the expectation of the money that went in. This is a very useful metric, but it's no substitute for manually reviewing your play.

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wtf is the point of knowing the equity we had in a cooler?? we obviously aren't putting our money in if we know we're getting set over setted.

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Well this is obviously one of the problems with analyzing luck and PEV only shows you one aspect of luck, but an important one. Everyone needs to recognize PEV is an analysis tool, not just a reporting tool.

With that said, I'm hopeful PEV-Phil will be creating a "cooler" component to his luck analysis.

[zooot]

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That's the way the all-in-calc program does it, but I don't like it. Say for example you put in $380 preflop as a 5:1 dog, and then your final $20 on the flop (this happens sometimes) as a 9:1 favorite. If you lose, did you really get unlucky for $720-odd dollars? That's the problem with basing it on the entire pot size.

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it's true that sometimes in your example the guy who was a 9:1 favorite was actually a 5:1 dog preflop. but it's much more likely that the 9:1 flop favorite was also the 5:1 preflop favorite.

your way of calculating luck magnitude basically assumes that the money that went in preflop went in as 50-50. the other way basically assumes that if the flop money went in as 80-20 then the preflop money went in 80-20 also. that seems more right to me but i think it's just a matter of preference.

the biggest reason i want to see your program done in the same way as all-in-calc is so that i can run them both on the same database and see how close they are to agreeing. (you would also need an option for ignoring 3-way pots for this to really work).

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I am obv a moran. Plz help me understand.

Drastic Example:

1k effective, you almost-shove for $999 preflop and leave $1 behind to be a prick. Your 12-tabling opponent doesn’t realize the $1 and clicks CALL. Flop comes down and you guys get the last $2 in. You are a 9:1 favorite on the Flop. It sounds like this program calculates your expectation in this case as .90 * $2 = $1.80. (ignore blinds/rake for example's sake).

Based on one hand of play:

Total Winnings= $2k.
Showdown Winnings = $2k.
Expectation = $1.80???

So you’re running mad hot? This makes no sense. I am obv misunderstanding the post. Plz help me.

Thanks

[Phil153]

The luck graphs only calculate the expectations and winnings from the all-in street. For example(ignoring rake):

$200 stacks.

Preflop: $50 goes in
Flop ($50): Hero bets $150 (60% equity), Villain calls $150(40% equity)
Hero's expectation: $180. Total pot size on this street: $300

It then determines what fraction of the $300 flop pot hero won, and compares with the $180 expectation. The difference is how well you ran. This is then added to your actual winnings for the hand (from PokerTracker) to get a "netwon adjusted for equity" line.

To scwhza:
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your way of calculating luck magnitude basically assumes that the money that went in preflop went in as 50-50. the other way basically assumes that if the flop money went in as 80-20 then the preflop money went in 80-20 also.

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It doesn't assume anything. Previous streets are completely ignored on the luck tab, so you see no deviation. This means it calculates a slightly smaller portion of luck, but it's not skewed. The other way of doing it can overestimate the magnitude of your luck if you play a certain style that deviates from the 80/20 expectation (such as set mining).

[Phil153]

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This is a common misconception. The program doesn't definitively tell you if you played good or bad. It tells you the expectation of the money that went in. This is a very useful metric, but it's no substitute for manually reviewing your play.

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wtf is the point of knowing the equity we had in a cooler?? we obviously aren't putting our money in if we know we're getting set over setted.

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The NetSB value is a quick and dirty way to do session review, it makes it easy to spot the hands where you got all in with negative equity. Future versions are going to add more refinement.

It's also useful in aggregate as you get a good idea where money is won or lost (which street, pot sizes, draws, etc) relative to how much you put in.