** Official June Chat Thread: The Flush **

[the_main]

Who wants to hear a short story?

Ok, so I'm just getting run over hard at the end of my session. Down about $2000 from my peak, but only down about $600 overall.

I'm to tilted to play, but I'm not tired.
I check my account balance.

xxx121.45

WTH, I'll try to make a run with the 121.45 and just start fresh tommorow (I like round numbers).

Blah blah blah, shortstack 3/6 until $200. Move to 5/10.

Called mini raise in BB, flop nothing. Fold.

Next hand.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $5/$10 Blinds - 4 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

the_main (SB): $180.00
BB: $195.00
UTG: $1,000.00
BTN: $1,045.00

Preflop: the_main is dealt 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">the_main raises all-in to $180.00</font>, BB calls $170.00

Flop: ($360) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Turn: ($360) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

River: ($360) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Pot Size: $360.00 ($2 Rake)

BB had T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and LOST (-$180.00)
the_main had 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (two pair, Eights and Fours) and WON (+$178.00)

Alrighty then.

Fold. STeal blind. Fold. Re-Steal. Then:

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $5/$10 Blinds - 4 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

the_main (SB): $393.00
BB: $980.00
UTG: $1,030.00
BTN: $611.55

Preflop: the_main is dealt 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $30.00</font>, <font color="red">the_main raises all-in to $393.00</font>, BB folds, BTN calls $363.00

Flop: ($796) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Turn: ($796) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

River: ($796) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Pot Size: $796.00 ($2 Rake)

BTN had 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and LOST (-$393.00)
the_main had 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (a full house, Sevens full of Kings) and WON (+$401.00)

And bingo bango, I'm even for the day. g'night.

[TheProdigy]

You've got more than 100k in your account?

[LearningCurve]

[ QUOTE ]
Who wants to hear a short story?

[/ QUOTE ]

Great story. One question though. Other than the amounts the games look a bit like the micros. That isn't a "normal" day at your level of tables is it? I understand Meta-Game theoretically, but I mean... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[diebitter]

The higher levels are EXACTLY like this. But for entirely different reasons to the micros...

[mlane]

Dosen't everybody?

[mlane]

Shortstack-a-ments get no respects i assume, so they think its going to be a flip, which seems to be the case in each hand. Or they all just suck.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
how the hell do you read that graph?

[/ QUOTE ]

it's simple

it's showing the pdf for a normal, gaussian distribution.

While I doubt winrates are normal (hence my derision for winrate confidence levels, etc), I do think flopping a set should fall along it.

Basically, all the possible outcomes (# of times) of flopping a set is mapped along the bottom axis. The frequency of flopping that number is along the vertical axis.
The peak of the curve is where the average # of sets is. If you ran dead average, half of the curve would be shaded blue.

It appears from the graphs here that the few posted are running bad. But, it doesn't look horrible. I'd guesstimate and say 10-15% of people are getting less sets playing the same # of hands due to pure chance.
It sucks to be running bad, but it isn't that exceptional.

[SimaoMacaco]

Nicely put... if i could add the following:

1. if your graph is nearly all blue and you are losing.. be very worried.. but.. probabilities do not have memories thus you are not necessarily destined to have bad luck in future to compensate.

2. if your graph is nearly all red and you are losing.. be pis.sed off.. you might never see those hands come good.

3. if your graph is half red and half blue and you are losing.. improve

4. if your graph is nearly all blue and you are winning.. do not cash out.. you will start the most horrific downswing if you do - under no circumstances buy any presents as it will go horribly wrong once you do and you will become superstitious, this leads ultimately to the belief that sites are rigged.

5. if your graph is nearly all red and you are winning.. feel pis.sed off but smoke a cigar as you are king



Here is my weekend, i am not sure if i can handle the swings at the weekends.. glad to get 9000 hands worth of KK meets AA out of the way though.. oh fukkk probs do not work that way..

[TwoNitty]

[ QUOTE ]
5. if your graph is nearly all red and you are winning.. feel pis.sed off but smoke a cigar as you are king


last 50k hands. Ok...so it's not quite all red...and my winrate isn't all that crazy. I'm still happy though.

Does anyone with a good winrate actually have a blue graph? Or more sets vs overpairs and AA vs KK, instead of the opposite? Stars cheats.


[/ QUOTE ]

[blunty31]

So DLM just sucked out on me for a buyin and immediatly sat out. I ask him 2 sit back in, he does, loses a few pots tucks his tail betwean his legs and runs.