Official October Thread: General Discussion

[tozzy]

yeah i was almost adding "or play good" as i was sure this was gonna follow if i didnt.

[Yeti]

if you really can't see that you've been running very good in your last 140k hands or so you are in for a world of pain.

there are basically zero blips in that graph you posted recently.

[TheMetetron]

[ QUOTE ]
metetron, plot by date and use bar graph, that way you will have 8 bars for your progress / day.

The reason it says 16 is that is your date range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm, that's an interesting feature though it still says 16 days graphed, but I can obviously see that isn't true from the graph. Thanks for the tip.

[homeboy604]

month so far.
+2300 rb.

[TheMetetron]

[ QUOTE ]
if you really can't see that you've been running very good in your last 140k hands or so you are in for a world of pain.

there are basically zero blips in that graph you posted recently.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't contend that I haven't run good over that last big graph I posted; it's entirely possible but I really don't know. I've played approximately 250,000 hands of MSNL with a winrate of 7 ptbb/100 over 3 sites. Now, if we want to try to argue about the confidence and range your can assign that winrate, we can... but from the basic stuff I've had someone do it'd be really hard for my true winrate to be under 5ptbb/100 though admittedly it is very hard to nail down one's true standard deviation.

The bottom line is in the same way we all make fun of FGator for not seeing that he is a loser, it's almost equally as hard for me to not be a big winner.

That's all I'm saying. Variance is variance and will even out over time. I don't bother trying to figure out how good or bad I run though I'm about to try to figure out how to do one of those EV graphs for the 140kish hands I have on this computer.

Edit: That said, I am winning at about 8.5 ptbb/100 this month so I'd feel confident saying I'm fairly obviously running good this month.

[TheMetetron]

Yeti,

Just to satisfy my own curiousity, I went back and did a graph of all hands on this computer by big blinds and found one 12-13 buyin downswing. No other downswings were over 10 buyins.

Interpret that how you will.

[Yeti]

Given the daily and weekly swings you see people posting here I think you can figure out my interpretation [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[AceCR9]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeti,

Just to satisfy my own curiousity, I went back and did a graph of all hands on this computer by big blinds and found one 12-13 buyin downswing. No other downswings were over 10 buyins.

Interpret that how you will.

[/ QUOTE ]

thats just not fair

[TheMetetron]

Someone explain this to me:



I also posted in BBV because obv all the best poker minds are there.

[HedonismBot]

Does anyone even play with metetron, maybe he's just sick good and can play on partypoker. Why don't you take some shot at HSNL?