The Well: BobboFitos - Page 17

BobboFitos · #**161** 04-05-2007, 08:58 PM

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Bobbo,

I see you advocate more semi-bluff pushes than any other poster. Your variance must be super high. What's your largest downswing?

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Interestingly, my variance is not super high. There are a bunch of reasons for this, but this thread 2 weeks ago explained why. maybe.

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Thanks, good read. What do you think of this?

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Standard? SB is your typical 30/10 recreational player.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$1/$2 Blinds
6 Players
Lego Poker Hand Converter

Stack Sizes
SB: $204
BB: $200.75
UTG: $334.60
MP: $249.75
CO: $221.45
Hero (BTN): $197

Preflop: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($3, 6 Players)
UTG folds, MP raises to $7, CO folds, Hero calls $7, SB calls $6, BB folds

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($23, 3 Players)
SB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $17, SB raises to $47, MP folds, Hero raises all-in to $190

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Hmm. very interesting hand, for a ton of reasons. I hope if you posted this, it generated good discussion, because it deals with: Calling pf w/ SC in pos (1) dealing with a decent draw in a 3way raised pot (2) facing a c/r from a non pfr when they check, which is worrisome (3)

Here's my take:

Preflop I sometimes call here, sometimes fold, and sometimes 3bet. Kinda a cop out, but all 3 can be defended, and depending on villain, can all be right.

On the flop, this is what you should be thinking of: I have an aggressive draw (2 overs, nut OESD, bdflush, but also on a 2tone board) in a raised pot (12 bb in there). effective stack is your stack, 190, or 8x the pot.

First question: If preflop raiser cbets, what is your standard play? interestingly, the play is to call. If you raise you must call a push, and your draw isnt big enough so that you care if you put the last bet in or not. you need to be able to put the last bet in to work it effectively (winning a mid sized pot w/o showdown)

However, pfr does not bet, so the next question is, should I bet here? A freecard doesnt hurt, and it looks like if the PFR had anything (overpair, draw, even ace high may cbet!) he would've bet. So, I'd discount him. The sb's range is 30/10, which is pretty wide here, and does NOT mean his range is weighted towards small pairs/etc. So, alot of his hands (Ax, broadways) also missed.

So i'd bet 3/4 pot with a fairly wide range of hands here, (~20, I do like your bet here) and obv fold alot of the stuff to a sb c/r.

However, this time, you have a solid hand that has a ton of equity vs most hands. So the next question is should you push (he'd be calling ~145 to win 410, or he'd need 35% equity) and you'd be laying 173 to pick up 87, and when called roughly (this is the fun part, how much equity do you think you have when called? Never more then 40%, although in bizzaro world you could technically have the best hand vs 67spades or something... but id lean to ~30% in general. real good time for a pokerstove sim)

anyway, if always called, this is not a great move. So, would a sb who prolly planend to c/r the pfr (and trap you in the middle, if he was thinking) ever fold to this push? Unfortunately if he c/r a draw (spades that could have yuo high carded) and the such is now priced in, so you cant make draws fold. I think that fold equity is very diminished; but, getting the immediate price of 30:117, with position and stacks left drawing to the nuts, calling becomes very nice.

So, I wont leave you with an exact answer, but rather a few questions:
1. How often do you think he folds to the c/r? (continued) How often does he need to fold to make this +EV?
2. What hand range are you putting him on, given he called pf oop, is somewhat loose passive, then went for a checkraise in a 3way raised pot?
3. If you do call, what should your plans be on different cards?

I will say, in a nutshell, this hand looks solid, but may not be optimal. (Meaning, calling may be better [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )
Also, if we did NOT have position, the decision would be more like push or fold, rather then push or call. Why do you think this is?

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Thanks for the detailed response. Here is a basic sim of his c/r + calling range imo. Anything you think I should add?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

13,860 games 0.005 secs 2,772,000 games/sec

Board: 9s 4s 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.470% 33.47% 00.00% 4639 0.00 { JcTc }
Hand 1: 66.530% 66.53% 00.00% 9221 0.00 { 99-88, 44, A9s, 98s }

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As for your questions:

1. After thinking about this hand some more, I think he folds maybe 10% of the hands he's c/ring with, so w/o doing the math (which I need help with in determining how often he needs to fold to make a push EV), the push looks pretty bad.
2. See stove sim, and add in some things like T9s/J9s. I think these types of players are far more likely to c/r TP than they are draws. I think he rarely c/r's a draw here.
3. Got any specific turn cards in mind? In general, I think I've gotta push over a turn bet if I hit any of my 8 straight outs. I also don't think any of my straight outs are dirty, since I think he rarely c/r's a FD on the flop. I guess I gotta consider my pair outs to be semi-dirty and proceed with caution to a big turn bet. If he's c/ring the flop with A9, I don't think he's firing a J/T turn. What do you think?

If we are OOP, it becomes more push/fold since it's harder to get paid when we hit, get a free river card less often, and he's raising a slightly bigger range when he's in position.

How'd I do?

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First, you did well. Congrats =)

re: his c/r-> call range, I think it's a tiny bit wider, he's not a tag, he's looser and not aggro pf. (example, I wouldnt be shocked for him to have TT) its hard to discern if he takes this line with ALL these hands, but something like this is realistic - I've added a bunch of combo draws which still account a small % given just 1 combo of each. I added a few more TP combos, and not to overweight them, just included suited variety so its not too many combos. I didnt include any random air, like 22 or AK, bc c/r-> call would be so weird and really not happening.

Board: 9s 4s 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.219% 33.59% 03.63% 12305 1328.50 { JcTc }
Hand 1: 62.781% 59.15% 03.63% 21668 1328.50 { TT-88, 44, A9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As3s, As2s, QsTs, Q9s, J9s+, T9s, Ts8s, 98s, 8s7s, 7s6s }

Anyway, our range differs by ~4%, which is actually in a 200bb pot fairly substantial. All additional equity matters. In fact, the taggier the opponent, the fewer TP combos and the closer to your range it becomes, but still roughly ~34% or so.

So, lets answer #1: I think 10% is fair assessment. he's taken a strong line, which removes air alot, and (JUST BASED ON PF STATS ALONE WHICH OFTEN IS NOT FAIR TO DO) seems like he will stack here with one pair. Also, the draws are committed, so it's not like he can c/r semibluff then opt to fold in this big pot now.
Lets continue onto #2, before answering the second half of #1 - I think its possible (in the 10 to 12% of c/r-> fold) he c/r misclicks, a VERY weak draw (like Qto) or something like 55. Those are reasonable bluff type hands that then fold. The poker stove hand range above demonstrate some other possibilities, although w/o having extensive knowledge of said player, we cant narrow his holdings to any degree of frequency.

So, back to #1; he folds 10 to 12%, and when called, we have 37% equity.
When he folds, we win 87$. That is 1 in 8. (+10.8)
When called, we have 37% equity of 410, or ~152$. We're also putting in 173$, which means 7 out of 8 this is net -21$. (-18.3)
So, we win 10.8 and lose 18.3, so interestingly, unless he folds more often, or we have slightly more equity, this is a -EV play. (-7.5$ or roughly 4bb)
One note - this is a case where if you played with someone alot, you could sacrifice EV (here, ~7.5$, which is 4bb, which is substantial) in effort to "balance" your sets, so that villain DOES c/r->stack off 1pair. (bc when you have the set or two pair, villain has v v low equity and you make a huge leap) but against an unknown and most regulars this is irrelevant.

For this to be +EV, villain needs to fold closer to 20% of the time (+87 2 in 10, +17.4 vs -21 8 in 10, -16.8) which produces a near break even result. Anything greater then that, and the play starts to look very nice.

3. turn plans? Well, if you jsut call, 117 in the pot with 141 behind. if you checks, id really want to shove, because THERE he would fold a draw priced out and maybe top pair or whatever fearing he's being trapped. this happens v rarely. i may check there too. not worth considering. if he bets... (less then all in or all in) if i hit a 6 outer im def all in. the tough spots are if a club hits (we improve, there if he pushes bam we cant really call unless J or T are live too, but i would LOVE to gamble there) if a spade hits (including our straight outs, we could be dead) or if a J/T hit. Anyway, if i suspect there is any FE when they lead the turn, i may shove a club/J/T, otherwise id just call on those priced in.

How did that hand work out? Would be awesome if villain folded, but based on your pokerstove range, im guessing you ran into a big hand and didnt suck out.

about OOP: You nailed it. In position we def. have implied odds esp. if he has a set or 2pair or whatever and sometimes can steal the pot or take a freebie. oop this is not the case, and although the odds offered are good, they're not good enough.

BobboFitos · #**162** 04-05-2007, 09:00 PM

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Might be a tough question but what % of SSNLers do you think have what it takes to be succesful at MSNL?

Also tips for moving from 1/2 to 2/4?

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1. Almost all of them, provided they work at it and have the discpline factor.
2. It's the same game, just twice the money.

BobboFitos · #**163** 04-05-2007, 09:04 PM

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lol, and you refrain from calling w/ A6s-A9s b/c they can't make cool straights as easily and if you hit a 9 it's unfortunately unfoldable regardless of opponents action?

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well, no. the straight value helps, lower trips are more disguised (and more small overpairs stack off there) and its alot easier to fold top pair w/ a 5 then as an 8.

Sh@i'tan · #**164** 04-05-2007, 09:04 PM

mmmm

who do you think is the best basketball player ever?

assuming u still watch the nba

who is going to be in the finals this year?

n

champion?

Big Poppa Smurf · #**165** 04-05-2007, 09:05 PM

Bobbo I just want to say you rock pretty hard and seem like a great guy, thanks for doing this

BobboFitos · #**166** 04-05-2007, 09:08 PM

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mmmm

who do you think is the best basketball player ever?

assuming u still watch the nba

who is going to be in the finals this year?

n

champion?

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MJ, not even close.
I watch a ton of NBA. I've gone to a bunch of warriors this game, as well - in fact, on monday, thye're hosting the jazz, and i have some pretty sweet tickets.. debating whether or not to wear a stockton jersey =)
in the finals... i like detroit in the east. the raptors are my fun team i want to make the finals, but i dont see it happening. wizards may even miss the playoffs now which would be funny, and obv NJN have no chance. miami hinges on wade being 100%. really, only safe bet in the east is detroit, but they lookedb ad yesterday vs CHI.
in the west, well, id lovethe jazz to make it. but the west is jsut so stacked - all the series will be so amazing. im picking the mavs to win it, though.

BobboFitos · #**167** 04-05-2007, 09:09 PM

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Bobbo I just want to say you rock pretty hard and seem like a great guy, thanks for doing this

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haha, thanks alot big poppa. i like your 2p2 name alot, that rules

*** Im going to real estate econ in 5 mins, but will be back to close out any final qs. (How long is a well up? until the end of the day?)

Novles · #**168** 04-05-2007, 09:29 PM

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Bobbo,

I see you advocate more semi-bluff pushes than any other poster. Your variance must be super high. What's your largest downswing?

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Interestingly, my variance is not super high. There are a bunch of reasons for this, but this thread 2 weeks ago explained why. maybe.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, good read. What do you think of this?

[ QUOTE ]
Standard? SB is your typical 30/10 recreational player.

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$1/$2 Blinds
6 Players
Lego Poker Hand Converter

Stack Sizes
SB: $204
BB: $200.75
UTG: $334.60
MP: $249.75
CO: $221.45
Hero (BTN): $197

Preflop: T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($3, 6 Players)
UTG folds, MP raises to $7, CO folds, Hero calls $7, SB calls $6, BB folds

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($23, 3 Players)
SB checks, MP checks, Hero bets $17, SB raises to $47, MP folds, Hero raises all-in to $190

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Hmm. very interesting hand, for a ton of reasons. I hope if you posted this, it generated good discussion, because it deals with: Calling pf w/ SC in pos (1) dealing with a decent draw in a 3way raised pot (2) facing a c/r from a non pfr when they check, which is worrisome (3)

Here's my take:

Preflop I sometimes call here, sometimes fold, and sometimes 3bet. Kinda a cop out, but all 3 can be defended, and depending on villain, can all be right.

On the flop, this is what you should be thinking of: I have an aggressive draw (2 overs, nut OESD, bdflush, but also on a 2tone board) in a raised pot (12 bb in there). effective stack is your stack, 190, or 8x the pot.

First question: If preflop raiser cbets, what is your standard play? interestingly, the play is to call. If you raise you must call a push, and your draw isnt big enough so that you care if you put the last bet in or not. you need to be able to put the last bet in to work it effectively (winning a mid sized pot w/o showdown)

However, pfr does not bet, so the next question is, should I bet here? A freecard doesnt hurt, and it looks like if the PFR had anything (overpair, draw, even ace high may cbet!) he would've bet. So, I'd discount him. The sb's range is 30/10, which is pretty wide here, and does NOT mean his range is weighted towards small pairs/etc. So, alot of his hands (Ax, broadways) also missed.

So i'd bet 3/4 pot with a fairly wide range of hands here, (~20, I do like your bet here) and obv fold alot of the stuff to a sb c/r.

However, this time, you have a solid hand that has a ton of equity vs most hands. So the next question is should you push (he'd be calling ~145 to win 410, or he'd need 35% equity) and you'd be laying 173 to pick up 87, and when called roughly (this is the fun part, how much equity do you think you have when called? Never more then 40%, although in bizzaro world you could technically have the best hand vs 67spades or something... but id lean to ~30% in general. real good time for a pokerstove sim)

anyway, if always called, this is not a great move. So, would a sb who prolly planend to c/r the pfr (and trap you in the middle, if he was thinking) ever fold to this push? Unfortunately if he c/r a draw (spades that could have yuo high carded) and the such is now priced in, so you cant make draws fold. I think that fold equity is very diminished; but, getting the immediate price of 30:117, with position and stacks left drawing to the nuts, calling becomes very nice.

So, I wont leave you with an exact answer, but rather a few questions:
1. How often do you think he folds to the c/r? (continued) How often does he need to fold to make this +EV?
2. What hand range are you putting him on, given he called pf oop, is somewhat loose passive, then went for a checkraise in a 3way raised pot?
3. If you do call, what should your plans be on different cards?

I will say, in a nutshell, this hand looks solid, but may not be optimal. (Meaning, calling may be better [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )
Also, if we did NOT have position, the decision would be more like push or fold, rather then push or call. Why do you think this is?

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Thanks for the detailed response. Here is a basic sim of his c/r + calling range imo. Anything you think I should add?

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

13,860 games 0.005 secs 2,772,000 games/sec

Board: 9s 4s 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.470% 33.47% 00.00% 4639 0.00 { JcTc }
Hand 1: 66.530% 66.53% 00.00% 9221 0.00 { 99-88, 44, A9s, 98s }

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As for your questions:

1. After thinking about this hand some more, I think he folds maybe 10% of the hands he's c/ring with, so w/o doing the math (which I need help with in determining how often he needs to fold to make a push EV), the push looks pretty bad.
2. See stove sim, and add in some things like T9s/J9s. I think these types of players are far more likely to c/r TP than they are draws. I think he rarely c/r's a draw here.
3. Got any specific turn cards in mind? In general, I think I've gotta push over a turn bet if I hit any of my 8 straight outs. I also don't think any of my straight outs are dirty, since I think he rarely c/r's a FD on the flop. I guess I gotta consider my pair outs to be semi-dirty and proceed with caution to a big turn bet. If he's c/ring the flop with A9, I don't think he's firing a J/T turn. What do you think?

If we are OOP, it becomes more push/fold since it's harder to get paid when we hit, get a free river card less often, and he's raising a slightly bigger range when he's in position.

How'd I do?

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First, you did well. Congrats =)

re: his c/r-> call range, I think it's a tiny bit wider, he's not a tag, he's looser and not aggro pf. (example, I wouldnt be shocked for him to have TT) its hard to discern if he takes this line with ALL these hands, but something like this is realistic - I've added a bunch of combo draws which still account a small % given just 1 combo of each. I added a few more TP combos, and not to overweight them, just included suited variety so its not too many combos. I didnt include any random air, like 22 or AK, bc c/r-> call would be so weird and really not happening.

Board: 9s 4s 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.219% 33.59% 03.63% 12305 1328.50 { JcTc }
Hand 1: 62.781% 59.15% 03.63% 21668 1328.50 { TT-88, 44, A9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As3s, As2s, QsTs, Q9s, J9s+, T9s, Ts8s, 98s, 8s7s, 7s6s }

Anyway, our range differs by ~4%, which is actually in a 200bb pot fairly substantial. All additional equity matters. In fact, the taggier the opponent, the fewer TP combos and the closer to your range it becomes, but still roughly ~34% or so.

So, lets answer #1: I think 10% is fair assessment. he's taken a strong line, which removes air alot, and (JUST BASED ON PF STATS ALONE WHICH OFTEN IS NOT FAIR TO DO) seems like he will stack here with one pair. Also, the draws are committed, so it's not like he can c/r semibluff then opt to fold in this big pot now.
Lets continue onto #2, before answering the second half of #1 - I think its possible (in the 10 to 12% of c/r-> fold) he c/r misclicks, a VERY weak draw (like Qto) or something like 55. Those are reasonable bluff type hands that then fold. The poker stove hand range above demonstrate some other possibilities, although w/o having extensive knowledge of said player, we cant narrow his holdings to any degree of frequency.

So, back to #1; he folds 10 to 12%, and when called, we have 37% equity.
When he folds, we win 87$. That is 1 in 8. (+10.8)
When called, we have 37% equity of 410, or ~152$. We're also putting in 173$, which means 7 out of 8 this is net -21$. (-18.3)
So, we win 10.8 and lose 18.3, so interestingly, unless he folds more often, or we have slightly more equity, this is a -EV play. (-7.5$ or roughly 4bb)
One note - this is a case where if you played with someone alot, you could sacrifice EV (here, ~7.5$, which is 4bb, which is substantial) in effort to "balance" your sets, so that villain DOES c/r->stack off 1pair. (bc when you have the set or two pair, villain has v v low equity and you make a huge leap) but against an unknown and most regulars this is irrelevant.

For this to be +EV, villain needs to fold closer to 20% of the time (+87 2 in 10, +17.4 vs -21 8 in 10, -16.8) which produces a near break even result. Anything greater then that, and the play starts to look very nice.

3. turn plans? Well, if you jsut call, 117 in the pot with 141 behind. if you checks, id really want to shove, because THERE he would fold a draw priced out and maybe top pair or whatever fearing he's being trapped. this happens v rarely. i may check there too. not worth considering. if he bets... (less then all in or all in) if i hit a 6 outer im def all in. the tough spots are if a club hits (we improve, there if he pushes bam we cant really call unless J or T are live too, but i would LOVE to gamble there) if a spade hits (including our straight outs, we could be dead) or if a J/T hit. Anyway, if i suspect there is any FE when they lead the turn, i may shove a club/J/T, otherwise id just call on those priced in.

How did that hand work out? Would be awesome if villain folded, but based on your pokerstove range, im guessing you ran into a big hand and didnt suck out.

about OOP: You nailed it. In position we def. have implied odds esp. if he has a set or 2pair or whatever and sometimes can steal the pot or take a freebie. oop this is not the case, and although the odds offered are good, they're not good enough.

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Thanks, I agree with everything you said. As for the results, unfortunately I miscalculated my FE in the heat of the battle, and he instacalled Jd9d, and I didn't suck out. Those were the types of hands I was hoping I'd fold out, but it didn't work out like that [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]. Nice analysis.

Mossberg · #**169** 04-05-2007, 09:45 PM

Thanks for doing this well man, lots of really good stuff in here..

1) I have a hard time dealing with minraises. They tend to set me on instatilt and I feel like I just end up playing the rest of the hand feeling lost.. What would your plan be for the rest of this hand:

(btw villain is 70/6 over just 35 hands)

Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $94.00
CO: $58.80
Button: $562.60
Hero: $200.00
BB: $166.80

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
3 folds, Hero raises to $7, BB calls.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($14, 2 players)
Hero bets $10, BB raises to $20, Hero ??

2) If you raise an EP fish from MP with AJo, a loose passive fish calls me in the CO or OTB, are you cbetting a 552 flop? I feel like I never get a fold in this spot but OTOH I feel like checking is really weak.

Maulik · #**170** 04-05-2007, 10:23 PM

First, Bobbo is every bit a good of a coach as Isura suggests. He doesn't tell you how to play poker, he teaches you how to approach the game and their unique situations.