STTF SNG->cash thread

[wuwei]

Cha,

QJo: we talked about this one, I usually just lead this flop and prefer bet/fold on this river.

77: Bleh. Fold. Not a fun hand with CO in pos on you.

TJ: Yes, definitely lead flop. There are times to let agro guys in position on you handle the betting themselves, but this isn't it. It's multiway, and your hand is good but certainly vulnerable.

At this point, probably call flop and donk turn.

[microbet]

[ QUOTE ]
The blinds both had pretty TAGish stats. Villain is 18/15/5 over 100 hands. I haven't tangled with him, haven't really seen any hands get to showdown that give me an idea about his tendencies.

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $1,003.90
BB: $745.30
UTG: $980.70
CO: $528.50
Hero (BTN): $598.50

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $14</font>, SB calls $12, BB calls $10

Flop: ($42) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($42) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">BB bets $34</font>, Hero calls $34, SB calls $34

River: ($144) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">BB bets $125</font>, Hero...

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the flop check some of the time at least. His postflop aggression is pretty high and you've given him reason to put you on 99-JJ or something. I don't see folding there. (or raising)

edit: He could also be splitting or betting KQ for value.

[futuredoc85]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The blinds both had pretty TAGish stats. Villain is 18/15/5 over 100 hands. I haven't tangled with him, haven't really seen any hands get to showdown that give me an idea about his tendencies.

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $1,003.90
BB: $745.30
UTG: $980.70
CO: $528.50
Hero (BTN): $598.50

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $14</font>, SB calls $12, BB calls $10

Flop: ($42) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($42) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">BB bets $34</font>, Hero calls $34, SB calls $34

River: ($144) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">BB bets $125</font>, Hero...

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the flop check some of the time at least. His postflop aggression is pretty high and you've given him reason to put you on 99-JJ or something. I don't see folding there. (or raising)

edit: He could also be splitting or betting KQ for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

w/ SB still in id call, if SB wasnt in the hand id raise the river

[wuwei]

Glad to hear you two say I have to call, I felt the same way. Microbet sums up my thoughts well.

[wuwei]

Villain in this one is a TAG regular, 20/16/2.3. Our history tonight includes a lovely hand where I 3bet AK in the sb, bet a T hi flop, and shoved a rag turn into his top set. Other than that, I can't think of much between us.

I need plan for turn/river.

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $174.40
Hero (UTG): $892.70
MP: $633.70
CO: $490.70
BTN: $464
SB: $449.50

Pre-Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $14</font>, MP calls $14, 4 folds

Flop: ($34) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $25</font>, MP calls $25

Turn: ($84) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)

[ChrisV]

[ QUOTE ]
I forgot to add TdJd into the hand range of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think that's particularly likely either, because the flop raise is tailor made to put him in an awkward spot on the turn. I'd expect to see a larger raise.

[ QUOTE ]
2) Second, as I was looking at PT (and hustling to hit "time"), things just didn't add up very well. His betting behavior (not just pattern) **felt** like a bluff, much more than a value bet. I say this with experience where I can nearly always put people on hands by the river (it doesn't mean I don't always make the right decisions, and I still can make bad calls, even though I **knew** their likely hand). I can usually smell out sets or pairs (for example, in that 37s hand, I think villain had nuts or K7) In this hand, I couldn't put him on a hand (other than the normal thought process). Everything about the hand felt like what I do when I try to bluff someone out of a pot and it also reminded me of a HU hand history between Gigabet and WildBill/GauchoFish/(can't remember current 2+2 handle). So, this leads me to my final question. In these situations, is realistic I can assume villain is bluffing 1/3 of the time (as opposed to a standard 10%)? Or is that spewing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously you have to trust your instincts when playing. If you really feel like this line from villain is a bluff, you should go with your instincts and call. Your analysis away from the table should be directed towards honing your instincts. To me you haven't made a case for why this line should be a bluff. KQx two diamonds is a really bad flop to try to bluff a SB pf raiser on. It hits a huge amount of their range. Your opponent doesn't need to be competent to be instinctively wary of attacking a pf raiser on this flop. And bluff attempts don't normally start with a minraise and only then progress to full pot bets. Normally you want people to fold as fast as possible. Plus bluffs are normally made with full pot bets only when there are marginal hands that you need to get to fold. In this situation, you can only hold a great hand (AA, AK, KQ, KK, QQ, AJ, TT - none of which your opponent will expect you to fold) or a weak hand. KJ and AQ are the only real in between hands.

Finally, sometimes you should try to put your opponent on a bluffing hand, rather than trying to put them on a real hand. In this situation the potential real hands are obvious - primarily KQ and 77 - so your thinking should be directed at coming up with a bluffing hand they might play like this. I can't think of any because the minraise on the flop is too weird. It exposes them to a reraise while not giving you any chance to fold. I guess AJdd, ATdd and JTdd are possible, but I can't think of any others.

[ChrisV]

Cha:

QJo: Lead flop is mandatory against this many opponents. The rest of the hand looks good.

77: Erk. It's tough without a little info on shorty. Also if CO was tighter pf I'd reraise, but with him running at 38 he could easily have a 5. I think I fold because it's going to be tough for CO to make a mistake, i.e. I think he will call every hand that beats me and fold every hand that doesn't, and I think the odds that one of them has me beat are pretty good.

AK: I flat call pf vs an UTG PFR 7 raiser. Then flop I mix up check folding and check calling.

JTs: I lead the flop. I don't like check calling as it cedes the initiative and I don't like checkraising as you turn your hand into a bluff, making it easy for MP to act correctly. If you cbet, MP is more likely to go wrong later in the hand.

wuwei:

AQ: Checking the flop doesn't look like it gains much for the amount of danger you incur. If you are going to check this flop though, river is a snap call as your hand is very underrepped.

[DevinLake]

[ QUOTE ]
River bettor is 44/15/1.27. How's my line this time?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $67.65
UTG: $82.95
CO: $17.30
BTN: $55.20
Hero (SB): $132.35

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, CO calls $1, BTN calls $1, Hero calls $0.50, BB checks

Flop: ($4) 6 5 J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players)
Hero checks, BB checks, CO checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($4) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, BB calls $3, CO folds, BTN calls $3

River: ($13) J (3 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BB bets $5.50</font>, BTN folds, Hero calls $5.50

[/ QUOTE ]

I lead the flop and I b/f the river. I don't like c/c the river because he's passive and is going to check behind worse hands he might call with, and the draw got there so he can't really be bluffing that often.

[cakewalk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
River bettor is 44/15/1.27. How's my line this time?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 PL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $67.65
UTG: $82.95
CO: $17.30
BTN: $55.20
Hero (SB): $132.35

Pre-Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, CO calls $1, BTN calls $1, Hero calls $0.50, BB checks

Flop: ($4) 6 5 J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players)
Hero checks, BB checks, CO checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($4) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, BB calls $3, CO folds, BTN calls $3

River: ($13) J (3 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BB bets $5.50</font>, BTN folds, Hero calls $5.50

[/ QUOTE ]

I lead the flop and I b/f the river. I don't like c/c the river because he's passive and is going to check behind worse hands he might call with, and the draw got there so he can't really be bluffing that often.

[/ QUOTE ]

do we check the turn if we get 2 callers on this flop or keep betting ?

[DevinLake]

who's the second caller?