Insane Celebrity WW (And PS Mets SUCK!) Long Game!

[Stephen H]

[ QUOTE ]
I would like to kill Luckay. That really doesn't matter though because we are at the point in the game where we are in danger of losing and there are a few people I can only assume are villagers. The most important thing is that those people come to some consensus before it is a half hour before lynch.

[/ QUOTE ]

I reread luckay a bit before my last post and he's very high on my lynch list.
I don't know what to think of you though so [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[HerbieGRD]

[ QUOTE ]
Ah crap we don't have to lynch the terrorist to win.
So screw lynching clown it's like lynching a neutral as far as wolves are concerned.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not really - the neutrals will sometimes want to vote with the village to give themselves the best chance to win - Clown never will. Also none of the neutrals have the power to blow up our seers at will.

If we could somehow lynch Clown tonight I would be extremely happy and hope that we get some guidance from Antonius tomorrow.

[HerbieGRD]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay the more I think about night strategy for evils the more I'm okay with lynching AJ

If I were running the show for the evil team, I'd employ some sort of strategy with the night kills and the lynches. Something like Kill best seer choice, peek&silence 2nd choice.
This would explain why AJ and Patton weren't night killed the night after they were silenced - they were peeked and known not to be evil.

Okay, this all points to AJ being more likely to be good.
BUT...

Mets died N2. He was a dog. He was tagged by Michael Vick. He was a very odd choice; he was almost certainly getting lynched soon after being so close to being lynched the first two days, and also such a centerpiece of the game that the game was naturally flowing around him. Why even try to kill him?
Unless Hitler peeked Mets, and found out he was a dog, night 1.
But then why didn't AJ die night 2? They nightkilled MDD, who was nothing but a village liability. They didn't know his role, they didn't peek AJ's role but they wanted him silenced...


Either the evils have no plan at all with who they silence, or AJ is evil.

Lynch Alex Jacob

[/ QUOTE ]
Thank you for this - I feel much better now

[HerbieGRD]

I think Books is a villager but I don't know why

[HerbieGRD]

Call it a hunch

[Stephen H]

I really, really, really wish we knew who paris was. I would love to see if we could find hints to paris about who the evils are.

BTW if we have any village roleblockers (I'm really starting to think we don't have Bill/monica) then they should come out today and indicate who they role blocked, ESPECIALLY if you think it conflicts with any claims made today already.

[Stephen H]

Theory: At least one of MarkK/Monk is a wolf, and it's possible that both are.

Thoughts?

[HerbieGRD]

[ QUOTE ]
Theory: At least one of MarkK/Monk is a wolf, and it's possible that both are.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd be really surprised if Monk is a wolf

I already said Mark_k needs to die immediately

[Siegmund]

Understand this response is hypothetical, and not exactly an accusation saying you ARE doing this, Herbie:

A faker will make whichever fake claim is easiest to be convincing / hardest to safely counterclaim. If you can silence Negreanu today, you'll fake claim Negreanu. If you can silence Emmy and don't know who Negreanu is, you'd have a choice. But Emmy isn't expected to have left hints on previous days, or been avoiding attracting wolf attention, the way that a seer is, so the fake is a one-shot deal, and can't be so easily ruined by your posts from yesterday.

"Or why wouldn't I fake as though I had slept with Hitler and claim someone was hitler and should be lynched?" Aside from the fact that a claim regarding a major role like hitler is more likely to trigger an avalanche of claims... If we lynch your alleged Hitler, and he turns up village, the jig is up. If, however, you make a fake seer claim that merely misdirects us away from wolves onto a random villager not mentioned in your claim, we still won't know if you've told the truth or not. Today, for instance, if we lynch AJ, we will still not know whether you, clown, stephen, and nez are who you say you all are. A wolf's goal right now is to cause enough mislynches to push the village over the cliff - a Hitler misdirection gets you exactly one mislynch while you might get two with the Emmy claim.

"Either one of those claims would be 100x smarter than the claim I made if I was evil. Do you disagree with this?" Yes, I disagree with that - I don't think any fake seer claim is smart today unless the wolves are in extremis (maybe all their peeks and roleblocks have been useless), but IF the wolves choose to make a fake seer claim, I think the fake-Emmy has some interesting variations to it that a straight fake-seer claim doesn't.

---

As to the actual game... the village needs to find itself a list of wolves. I'm having a bit of a hard time filling out my list if I accept all the claims made today -- if any one of the other claims like OH's is phony, I still need to find 3 more UTRs (and I don't honestly think I stand much chance of finding them all before time runs out). If *yours* is phony, we have 2 or 3 wolves implicated together, and need only find one or two strays.

[clowntable]

Herbie, if I was the terrorist...
...would you want me to blow you up?