Insane Celebrity WW (And PS Mets SUCK!) Long Game!

[HerbieGRD]

Mark_K

He's evil - he's really, really, evil

[bojtun]

I don't have time ... but Herbie, if Clown is the terrorist .. can you, or someone post who he's voted for?

I don't remember who he picked when I told him I wanted to be masons with him if he would vote himself ... but, prolly not evils.

[Siegmund]

If a wolf's choice of two wagons was hitler or osama, he'd throw osama under the bus.

Smack away. But I'm locking my bedroom door.

[bojtun]

OK, I looked, it was herbie/stephen wagons he wanted ... didn't check who he's voted for each day.

[HerbieGRD]

[ QUOTE ]
If a wolf's choice of two wagons was hitler or osama, he'd throw osama under the bus.

Smack away. But I'm locking my bedroom door.

[/ QUOTE ]
Siegmund - please tell me what I gain from faking here. Not faking in general I mean why would I fake Emmy Rossum instead of Daniel Negreanu or Patrick Antonius straight up? Or why wouldn't I fake as though I had slept with Hitler and claim someone was hitler and should be lynched? Either one of those claims would be 100x smarter than the claim I made if I was evil. Do you disagree with this?

[HerbieGRD]

Seriously I mean this - I have spent a lot of time today answering questions and objections about my claim every one of which has checked out 100%. My claim would be very easy to counter by any one of multiple people if it were fake and yet no one has countered. Finally - as I said just now if I were evil there are at least 4 or 5 claims I could have made that would have been lower risk higher reward and had a better success rate than the one I made.

I want anyone who actually doubts my claim to give a reasonable, believable scenario under which I would make this specific fake claim because at the very least I believe my claim has been reasonable and believable.

It's hard to sort out who are the wolves and who are the villagers who honestly don't believe so please if you're a villager we don't have much margin for error here - either believe me or give me something more than "I think you're faking because you want to lynch the terrorist who isn't really a wolf he just wins with the evils and wants to kill villagers"

[HerbieGRD]

Whatever

Alex Jacob until he posts some reason we should kill someone other than him

[Stephen H]

Ah crap we don't have to lynch the terrorist to win.
So screw lynching clown it's like lynching a neutral as far as wolves are concerned.

Near as I can tell people we could lynch are:
aj/botjun/monk/fcbl/chuckles/luckay/markk/nichp/siegmund/books
(I'm not lynching lastchance after the roundtower kill)

A big pile of these are Team STFU so blah.

[wdcbooks]

I would like to kill Luckay. That really doesn't matter though because we are at the point in the game where we are in danger of losing and there are a few people I can only assume are villagers. The most important thing is that those people come to some consensus before it is a half hour before lynch.

[Stephen H]

Okay the more I think about night strategy for evils the more I'm okay with lynching AJ

If I were running the show for the evil team, I'd employ some sort of strategy with the night kills and the lynches. Something like Kill best seer choice, peek&silence 2nd choice.
This would explain why AJ and Patton weren't night killed the night after they were silenced - they were peeked and known not to be evil.

Okay, this all points to AJ being more likely to be good.
BUT...

Mets died N2. He was a dog. He was tagged by Michael Vick. He was a very odd choice; he was almost certainly getting lynched soon after being so close to being lynched the first two days, and also such a centerpiece of the game that the game was naturally flowing around him. Why even try to kill him?
Unless Hitler peeked Mets, and found out he was a dog, night 1.
But then why didn't AJ die night 2? They nightkilled MDD, who was nothing but a village liability. They didn't know his role, they didn't peek AJ's role but they wanted him silenced...


Either the evils have no plan at all with who they silence, or AJ is evil.

Lynch Alex Jacob