Thanksgiving Gone Wrong - Werewolf

[Epicurus]

chim,
any idea what time you'll be ready to post after finishing work tonight?

[Solanthos]

double-you...

tee...

eff?

[chim17]

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chim,
any idea what time you'll be ready to post after finishing work tonight?

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I will get off work at 8 est, back home by 830. I *may* be able to post during the day after 5 est when I get back to my store, but am going to be out at another store until then so it will not be possible.

[chim17]

So Day 1..

I come back from work with votes Kokiri 3, OH 3, Epic 2, Dustin 2. I talk a bit about Epicurus and then make a decision on the main two bandwagons. I place the 4th, and tie breaking vote, on Kokiri. There is no reason for a wolf to do this here as it would not look suspicious at all to vote OH. Before I place this vote I even call VR out on her reasoning that she found OH wolfy, saying it applied more to Kokiri. Zen votes OH for "flipaments" and I jump on his case about it becasue thats a terrible villager move. So Nich and Zurvan change the votes so that it is Epic 5, OH 5. I have to choose a new bandwagon as Kokiri is not happening, and continue voting with my view that Epic was probably villager at this point so vote OH. Nich's analysis of this day was so far off. I was on Kokiri at a very important time, but his bandwagon got derailed so I had to choose another.

Day 2..

I come home and Dustin/Epic are the major bandwagons. After reading day 2 and Dustin being crazy it didn't seem that he would play a wolf that way. I suggested wagons on VR, Kokiri, or Herbie. When it seems there is a chance Kokiri is going to get voted I change my vote to him again, putting Kokiri 2 behind Dustin and trying to get support on his wagon. Then I make notice that Dustin refuses to change his vote to Kokiri which seems to me only a wolf would do if they were trying to save another wolf. I see no reason for a villager to not switch (short of suspecting the one is the seer) so I quickly change to Dustin because Dustin could have made it a one vote game. Dustin even acknowledges that my theory made sense and called me a villager there.

Day 3..

The most interesting thing to me, and I realize now that none of you know me well enough to know that this is a defense but it needs to be said anyways. When Mets made his list post with six of us I totally blew it off. It was so obvious to me at that time that he was seer. Mets NEVER Makes unsubstantiated posts like that, especially ones accusing me. Mets knows me much more than that so I knew at the time he had to have some other knowledge of what was going on besides his normal reads. Mets would tell you that it is true that I never just ignore accusations he makes of me because when he tries to get suspicion on me (and he isn't seer) one of us is generally a wolf. If I were a wolf I would absolutely respond there, and woulda eaten him that night. Again, I realize this is not clear to any of you but it is pretty important in analyzing my role so wanted to get it out there.

So Day 3 there is a conversation I have with Luckay that would never occur with both of us being wolves. He voted Kokiri, six minutes later I vote Kokiri for basically the exact same reasons. Luckay even quotes it saying that I am a villager because I am thinking exactly what he is. Hell, he even used almost the same words as me in regards to VR's possible seer peek. #13002275 is where this conversation starts. Anyways, again I helped lead the charge on Kokiri and we finally got him lynched that night.

Day 4 and on I don't have time to do right now but it was pretty basic. Seer was out so hard to analyze much there.

Herbie is like the only person that found me wolfy all game. This is pretty standard Chim villager game but there is no way most of you guys will know that.. maybe fmxda. I put all this time in because I think I am the easy lynch today, and losing after how well Mets played seer would be a disaster. Whoever the last wolf is has done a good job. Again, if there is majority and you guys decide to kill me please dont lynch me until I get home from work. I don't want to be the easy out. I wrote up this in 20 minutes since I need to get out the door, but will be back for a full hour tonight at night fall.

[Epicurus]

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I think you should do it now, the whole point being it should be about your postives, and not the "obvious wolf's" negatives in must-lynch

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tomorrow it will still be about my positives. but frankly, today is going to be kind of lame for me, so i might not write well. if there is a tomorrow, it will be exciting, and i'll probably do a better job writing, so id rather save my posting energy for then.
thats just in terms of those long, multiquote/sourced/indexed posts though. i still plan to be reasonably active today, just more reactive than proactive.

[chim17]

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I think you should do it now, the whole point being it should be about your postives, and not the "obvious wolf's" negatives in must-lynch

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tomorrow it will still be about my positives. but frankly, today is going to be kind of lame for me, so i might not write well. if there is a tomorrow, it will be exciting, and i'll probably do a better job writing, so id rather save my posting energy for then.
thats just in terms of those long, multiquote/sourced/indexed posts though. i still plan to be reasonably active today, just more reactive than proactive.

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I really don't like how you are just assuming you don't need to make a case for yourself at all. None of us three are cleared. And while I agree that the odds you get lynched today are far far less than I or zen, it doesn't seem really village friendly.

Also, in regards to the NK you posted. Obviously Zurvan would have some benefit to you if you were the wolf. A zen/chim final is much more friendly than a Zurv final to you.

Anyways, I think we probably win with zen but after everything that took place I don't like your assumptions here.

[chim17]

Ok, on that note I'm out.

[Epicurus]

chim,
i guess i do come off a little presumptuous there.
re your Zurvan comments, ive been thinking a lot since day about the reasoning behind his nightkill. i do agree with what you say that, as a wolf, i wouldnt want Zurvan in the final three. the best explanation i can come up with is that, as i understand it, if, in a final three situation, both remaining villagers are suspicious of each other and the third player, it becomes harder for anyone to cast the first vote, whereas in the situation we'll have now, should we have a final three, each nonconfirmed villager will vote for the other and make their pitch. its possible that the wolf likes his chances in this scenario better.

[Epicurus]

logically this would mean that the wolf likes his chances of framing me. hmmm, perhaps i should make that case for myself today after all....

[Solanthos]

Hmmm, now I really wonder.

Epi's greatest hits, from before Mets comes out...

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i really dont like a lucky vote. i also dont like a chim vote, but i think my read on chim comes from reasons that can be more easily faked than can luckys. herbie might bear reconsidering.

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hmmm actually i can probably find someone id prefer to lynch over sixfour.

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He also had a huge post where he tried to prove that mets was wolfy.

Votes sixfour then says:

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hes on three seperate suspect lists today alone, hes voted for a villager both nights (admittedly only i know that for sure), and his post above gave me shivers, it felt so wolfy. if we do lynch sixfour and hes a wolf, ill probably give chuckles some villager pts.

also kokiri has sounded kind of villagery recently. this opens up the embarassing possibility that we're on day three and there has yet to have been any kind of focus applied to a player who is/wasnt a villager.

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What does he mean by "admittedly only I know that for sure?"

Next, if Epi is a wolf, this is two wolves talking to each other in the thread trying to figure out whether it's okay to lynch one of their own...

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lucky,
problem is, for me to vote kokiri i have to be more certain than most that hes a wolf, because if he shows up village i just know you'll make the same argument tomorrow with my name replacing his, and if you were to succeed we'd be at mustlynch. Then it would be a trivial task for the wolves to muster enough support to bandwagon you based on your vocal support for two consecutive villager lynches.

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Then Luckay's response,

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ok, I'm more certain than not that he's a wolf

I think you yourself have mentioned that you were reluctant to vote dustin, and that you were reluctant to vote our house. It sounded sorta genuine. I'm sort of starting to think that you're a villager. Dustin was screaming that at least, and I've gotta listen to dustin.

go on kokiri and everything will be a-ok

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lol. between the two id rather vote FMX today. i dont know if id rather vote kokiri than any other player, ill give that some thought. btw im currently rereading VR and i agree that it looks very likely that she peeked Zurvan as a villager, so i guess he's off my suspect list.

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Then is convinced to vote Kokiri by Luckay (both wolves.) He then changes to chuckles hoping to get someone else to join him, and when he doesn't, he gets back on Kokiri.

In fact... he makes it Kokiri 5/Chuckles 4 and hopes to have FMX join him on Chuckles. FMX votes Kokiri, and then Epi re-votes Kokiri to make it 7/4.