All 3 Boston teams winning the championship?? - Page 16

EPiPeN11 · #**151** 08-09-2007, 06:30 PM

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I'd put the true odds at:

Celtics: 22-1
Red Sox: 6.5-1
Pats: 8-1

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I will take the Pats at 6:1 (huge bargin for you since you think they are 8:1) with anyone willing to bet 1k or more (escrow is needed obv). Come on Boston haters step up please.

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I'm not comfortable risking $6000, but I'd be willing to let you bet $200 with me(so you'd win $1200 if you won). I'm sure you could find 4 other people to also take the bet and then you'd have your $1000 bet.

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Sorry i'm not going through that much effort for peanut stakes. If you want to find these 4 people and find a reliable escrow (mod) than go ahead.

EPiPeN11 · #**152** 08-09-2007, 06:32 PM

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Wow there are some serious Boston haters on this thread.

Here are what the real odds should be:

Pats 3:1

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So you think that Pats have a 25% shot of winning the Super bowl? Ok, please tell me what percentage you think these teams have of winning the SB and keep in mind that every team can only add up to 100%:

SD
Indy
Balt
Pitt
Cincy
Chicago
Philly
Dallas
Seattle
Denver
New Orleans
Other(every other team combined)

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SD 5:1 (would be higher if they didn't have Norv Turner)
Colts 6:1
Bears 7:1 (only cause of the weak NFC)

Every other team is 10:1 or over.

EPiPeN11 · #**153** 08-09-2007, 06:33 PM

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Epipen,
I will book a bet with you. PM or post for more details also I will request an escrow. So if you aren't willing to Escrow don't bother.

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Uh I said in my original post that an escrow would be required. How much do you want to bet, and which teams?

Celtics 22:1
Sox 6:1
Pats 6:1

EPiPeN11 · #**154** 08-11-2007, 11:46 AM

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Epipen,
I will book a bet with you. PM or post for more details also I will request an escrow. So if you aren't willing to Escrow don't bother.

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Uh I said in my original post that an escrow would be required. How much do you want to bet, and which teams?

Celtics 22:1
Sox 6:1
Pats 6:1

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bump for bet

youtalkfunny · #**155** 08-11-2007, 05:14 PM

How about this, instead of a bet: We all chip in a little money to get you to go away?

I'm in for $5.

As a good friend of mine likes to say to guys like you, "You don't have any idea what it's like to see everyone in the room smile when you walk in, do you? Nobody has ever greeted you with a warm smile, a big hand shake, and asked, 'Where have you been? Why don't you come around more often?' You don't have any idea what that feels like, do you?"

Pudge714 · #**156** 08-12-2007, 11:23 AM

Epi,
Knowing this
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Here are what the real odds should be:

Pats 3:1
Sox 3:1
Celtics 12:1

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There is no way I would except the offers you just made.

EPiPeN11 · #**157** 08-12-2007, 09:26 PM

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How about this, instead of a bet: We all chip in a little money to get you to go away?

I'm in for $5.

As a good friend of mine likes to say to guys like you, "You don't have any idea what it's like to see everyone in the room smile when you walk in, do you? Nobody has ever greeted you with a warm smile, a big hand shake, and asked, 'Where have you been? Why don't you come around more often?' You don't have any idea what that feels like, do you?"

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Uh no sorry I got a bunch of friends. Maybe your good friend was talking about you?

Max Raker · #**158** 08-13-2007, 04:33 AM

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ytf, how much of that is influenced by retard Sox fans who think their team can do no wrong? I was under the impression oddsmakers set lines they thought would result in the largest profit, not what they actually thought the lines SHOULD be.

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I always thought the lines were set to get equal action on both sides so the books would have no risk.

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Why in the world would the books want to avoid risk and minimize their EV? You are wrong.

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There is no such thing as both sides when it comes to something like the sox winning the series. If a book will give 6-1 on a sox cahmpionship you can't take the opposite and put 6 that the sox won't win.

If they think the odds are 6:1, they will offer something very close like 5:1 or 5.5:1. If they put something insane like 1:1, only homers would take it and the volume gambled would be so low. For all of these bets they are trying to maximize volume on the plus EV side of the curve. In vegas homers don't make up that big of a percentage of the people placing bets. If you went to a bar in boston and tried to make this bet, you would get fleeced I'm sure.

Also as an aside, a book will sometimes set the line on long term bets close to even or sometimes even slightly +EV for the bettor. They can get away with this because of the interst they can earn for having your money for a year and because they factor in the chances that you will die, loose your ticket or don't cash it in for whatever reason.

Thremp · #**159** 08-13-2007, 05:32 AM

Max,

You are so wrong that it isn't even funny. There are commonly bets with 100+% ROI in futures markets and ones that have gross takeouts with markets of 200%.

They don't "get away with it". Its because they're dumb. And then people take their money.

Max Raker · #**160** 08-13-2007, 08:39 AM

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Max,

You are so wrong that it isn't even funny. There are commonly bets with 100+% ROI in futures markets and ones that have gross takeouts with markets of 200%.

They don't "get away with it". Its because they're dumb. And then people take their money.

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I am not sure what you mean here. Are you saying that casions that, which are billion dollar operations, are putting -EV bets on the books and getting taken?