[150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb's Deep

[sh58]

shpanko said what i was going to say. from the villains point of view we can't have AA or KK so he would be pretty confident about having 44.

i say his range is strictly sets here. 444, KKK or AAA.

i think it is pretty marginal call, but with the pot odds we have to pukecall

[kaz2107]

ikestoys is right here. folding on this river is bad. and i deffinatly think he has a lot more experience playin deep then almost n e one who posted in here. i see villian haveing 44 and AK roughly 40% of the time here makin this call sick easy.

[Xanta]

I'm not sure if it's been pointed out yet, but it's important to note that to villain, 44 is the 2nd nuts and AK is the 3rd nuts. How he views hero is insanely important to our decision.

[Paul Thomson]

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ikes, villain has AK and shoves the river for like 300 big blinds. what's he expecting a call from ... A8? clearly there's some point at which you fold this (even getting 2.5:1). 500 big blinds? 1000 big blinds? hero has a set, but hero doesn't have the nuts.

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who said that it was a good push?

2 combos AA
2 combos KK
2 combos 44
9 combos AK

We lose to AA, KK... beat 44. If he plays AK this way 20% of the time... its a call. i rest my case.

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lol.

[Keyser.]

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if you consider folding this dont play 500BB's deep... Seriously, this is the reason why i dont like to play more then 300-400BB deep unless i got 3984092384039 buyins for that level. If you did fold this please leave the table the next hand..

Id snap call this.

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This is really not the issue. I think a better point is "don't play 550 bbs deep if you mindlessly stack off with same hands as you do when 100 bbs deep."

[cs3]

for all those saying this is an easy river call i challenge you to find a single hand from .5/1NL - 2/4NL and post teh HH where either:
1) a TAG gets all in with 2 pairs for over 500+ bb's or
2) a TAG gets in 500+ bb's after the turn with bottom set or less

[bilbo-san]

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wow such a sick spot, i think its pretty close based entirely on whether he can do this with AK even some of the time. Also i suppose if 44 is part of his range.

Imo KK isnt nearly as large a part of his range as AA, why would he contbet so large with top set on such a dry flop unless there is some deeper level thinking which im not gonna give him credit for at 150NL.

I prob call and pray he has AK but most of the time i think he shows up with AA

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Ding , Ding, Ding

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WOW I have won a [censored] ton of money from fish who, after getting stacked, said "OMG I can't believe you bet so much with the nuts!?!11?!"

Seriously, NOT making a big cont. bet with top set when you are 500 [censored] BBs deep would be beyond retarded.

[Fonkey123]

I agree with ike (what a surprise) except for the fact that hero's line looks so massively strong I'd be very worried as villain.

That said the villain hardly ever doesn't push AK in the moment.

[bilbo-san]

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He probably views your hand as 44 or something he has beat, two pair or w/e

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Besides A8, what other possible 2-pair could op have here? And if villain views op's range as 44...why the hell would he shove AK?

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i mean, cmon. count the combos of a8, count the combos of 44... then ignore all that b/c people are going to push top
two.

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but more specifically, does a 23/12/1.5 push top two here (i have yet to see this at 1/2, but obv you'd know better)? and even if he does do this w/ AK sometimes, it cant be near 100%. You said that we cant weight the ranges more strongly toward a set - not sure why not...

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These kinds of posts are annoying.

Name the number of pots you've seen played for 500BB stacks.

When you're sample size is, like, EIGHT, it makes little sense to say something like "I've never seen a villain shove XX here."

Ike says he plays 400bbs deep a lot. You can argue that:

a) he's lying/FoS/whatever
b) his logic does not apply because OP and villain play completely different than Ike or any of his opponents would
or perhaps c) you play even more often 400bb than he does and thus have a better estimate of how players play.

All of those would be interesting arguments to make and I'd welcome a discussion on any of them.

but for a bunch of posters to sit around and just randomly keep saying "no one ever shoves XX here because I've never seen it happen" is kinda silly unless they've played one hell of a lot of [censored] deep stacked poker.

[cs3]

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That said the villain hardly ever doesn't push AK in the moment.

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so some tag gets to the turn with only 35 BB's in the pot and sees that his TPTK just improved to top 2 pair...
and he 3 bets the turn for over 200BB's, gets called there but isnt alarmed, and then still shoves over 300BB's more on the river with AK?
just because hes "in the moment"?