****Official 2007 NY Mets NL East Champs Thread****

[kbfc]

I think pinch-running El Duque was by far his biggest error in the game. For the most part, we can bitch and moan about little decisions here and there that might affect the EV of a GAME by 5% or whatever, but Willy risked a monumental blow to the team's SEASON by putting ED in there, and I almost booked a flight to NY to punch him in the face myself after the awkward slide on the near-pickoff play.

-El Duque is 97 years old.
-El Duque has a recent history of leg injuries.
-El Duque is a very good starting pitcher with a 3.02 ERA (6th best in the NL).
-El Duque pitched 7 innings in the morning game and gave up 3 hits and 1 ER, with 8 Ks.
-El Duque was put in as the lead runner on 2nd base in a situation where he was going to be forced to run hard on basically any ball in play, including a potential home plate collision on a soft single to the outfield.
-THIS IS WHY WE HAVE SCOTT SCHOENWEISS: TO RUN HIMSELF INTO A SEASON-ENDING INJURY.

#$%@ THE HECK?!?!?!?

[BobOjedaFan]

Orlando Hernandez pinch running was the only thing the Mets did right in this game. You can't use a reliever because they might have to pitch later. To not use a guy because he MIGHT get hurt is ridiculous, why not never let him go to the mound either? Or when he comes up to the plate he should intentionaly strike out to avoid running the bases. To complain about that move is silly.

[BobOjedaFan]

Also I hate when people act like pitchers are like 90 lb frail anorexic women. He's a proffesional athlete, not a retard. I don't think he's gonna try and take down the catcher on a slide to home plate.

[kbfc]

What % of the time is ED (career sub .200 OBP) going to be expected to run all-out in a normal start where he gets say 3, maybe 4, at-bats?

What % of the time is ED going to be expected to run all-out when he's put in on 2nd base in a tie ballgame in the 7th inning with 1 out?

These 2 numbers are not the same. I'm guessing (without doing any calculations) that this one move was worth roughly an entire season's worth of injury risk on the basepaths for ED. ED is an awesome pitcher with a recent history of running-related leg injuries. Who cares what the EV of the move was in-game. This was serious -EV for the season.

[BobOjedaFan]

[ QUOTE ]
What % of the time is ED (career sub .200 OBP) going to be expected to run all-out in a normal start where he gets say 3, maybe 4, at-bats?

What % of the time is ED going to be expected to run all-out when he's put in on 2nd base in a tie ballgame in the 7th inning with 1 out?

These 2 numbers are not the same. I'm guessing (without doing any calculations) that this one move was worth roughly an entire season's worth of injury risk on the basepaths for ED. ED is an awesome pitcher with a recent history of running-related leg injuries. Who cares what the EV of the move was in-game. This was serious -EV for the season.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is beyond ridiculous. You are saying he can't even run. I guess he shouldn't do any sprinting or exercise before games either. How frail do you think a professional athlete is that he incapable of running 180 ft without a 50% chance of a season ending injury?

[Needle77]

What do you guys think about Castro as a possible starter next year? Think his number would suffer from being an everyday guy and if so how much?

I know, know, variance for this year, but he has always had potential.

[kbfc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What % of the time is ED (career sub .200 OBP) going to be expected to run all-out in a normal start where he gets say 3, maybe 4, at-bats?

What % of the time is ED going to be expected to run all-out when he's put in on 2nd base in a tie ballgame in the 7th inning with 1 out?

These 2 numbers are not the same. I'm guessing (without doing any calculations) that this one move was worth roughly an entire season's worth of injury risk on the basepaths for ED. ED is an awesome pitcher with a recent history of running-related leg injuries. Who cares what the EV of the move was in-game. This was serious -EV for the season.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is beyond ridiculous. You are saying he can't even run. I guess he shouldn't do any sprinting or exercise before games either. How frail do you think a professional athlete is that he incapable of running 180 ft without a 50% chance of a season ending injury?

[/ QUOTE ]

ED isn't an average player. He is 734 years old, and suffered a season-ending injury just last year, performing just the sort of pregame sprints you reference.

Consider me skeptical that ED does any pregame running nearly as strenuous as what would be required on a single to the outfield in a late tie game.

Consider me skeptical that ED does any pregame drills where he has to make an awkward lunge/slide/bowl-over at a base, such as the one he made when nearly getting picked off, or what could occur on a close play at the plate.

Consider me skeptical that 50% is the breakeven point for season EV.

[kbfc]

[ QUOTE ]
What do you guys think about Castro as a possible starter next year? Think his number would suffer from being an everyday guy and if so how much?

I know, know, variance for this year, but he has always had potential.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, PLD is crap. He needs to hit like .330 to make up for his lack of power, speed, and defensive ability.

Castro has a great bat for a catcher. He could tail off significantly with everyday play and still be more valuable than PLD. Behind the plate, I haven't really seen him do anything impressive, but it's hard to be worse than PLD. He is already 31, but he doesn't have the wear and tear of a starting catcher over his career. Given that he is already slower than some plants (as is PLD), I don't see his skillset dropping off that badly as he gets older.

I have no clue how he would hold up as the primary starter, but I'd imagine he'd be at least acceptable. There aren't exactly a lot of superman catchers floating around right now.

[niss]

Sad to see that Bill Robinson died. Most of you may remember him as Mets hitting coach in '86, but he also was a pretty good player for the Pirates in the late '70s.

[wh1t3bread]

Rumors are that Beltran has a tear in his abdomen and is headed for the DL, barring a miraculous recovery tonight...

I guess this was bound to happen at some point this year with Beltran. Better July 30th than September 30th...